关键词: 第二次人口红利, 国民转移账户, 国民经济生命周期赤字, 有效劳动力支持比, 人口老龄化

Abstract: Based on the theoretical framework of the national transfer account and the age decomposition of national financial flows, this paper quantifies the dynamic changes in the economic lifecycle pattern of individuals and analyzes the conditions and challenges of realizing the second demographic dividend in China. The analysis shows that: the levels of income and consumption declined significantly after the age of 60, but the financial surplus was obtainable at a very low level in old age; the role of the secondary income allocation was limited in adjusting income inequality; the number of effective consumers that each effective laborer could support declines. While China has the capacity to reconstruct its demographic dividend, challenges remain. Strengthening institutionalized pension to enhance the financial surplus in old age is an important policy consideration to capture the second demographic dividend.