关键词: 个人所得税改革, 家庭间接税负, 家庭生育决策, 税收制度改革

Abstract: Based on the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and the 2018 national input-output table, using the propensity score matching, difference-in-differences model, and simultaneous-equation model, this paper analyzes the impact of individual income tax reduction and family indirect tax burden on family childbearing decision from the perspective of overall family tax burden. The families which are affected by the individual income tax reform, have an increased probability of having two children by 19.4% in comparison to the unaffected families. The higher the amount of income tax reduction, the stronger the fertility promotion effect of the tax reform. In addition, the high child order is more sensitive to the tax reduction than the lower one. The family indirect tax burden has negative effect on fertility decisions. The indirect tax rate on life necessities should be reduced to enhance the ability of low-income families to bear children. During the process of tax reform, the government should pay attention to the impact of tax system adjustment on family childbearing decision.

Keywords: Individual Income Tax Reform, Family Indirect Tax Burden, Family Childbearing Decision, Tax System Reform