关键词: 人口负增长, 人口老龄化, 人力资源总量, 长期增长潜力

Abstract: In 2022, China saw a population decline while just entering the rank of high-income countries. This has caused widespread anxiety in Chinese society. Worldwide, many analysts predict a rapid decline in China's economic growth due to the peaking of the population. However, we disagree with this by arguing that it is the stock of human capital, rather than the amount of young labor, that determines the growth potential of a country. By our estimates, due to continued improvements in public health and education, China’s aggregate human capital is positioned to continue growing steadily between now and 2050. Chinese aggregate human capital in 2050 will be equivalent to 1.644 billion by the health and education standard of 2020. This implies that the Chinese economy has the potential to continue growing at the pace of 5.9%, 4.9%, and 4.1% for the coming three decades, respectively. The key to realizing this potential for economic growth is to establish pragmatic policies to fully utilize China's increasing human capital.