关键词: 惯性增长, 人口再生产, 31个省市自治区, 聚类分析, 人口普查

Abstract: China is still in the process of inertial growth with positive natural increase rate and rising total population size． However，China s population reproductive pattern has changed into that of an intrinsically negative growth under the surface of positive increase． Using 2000 and 2010 national population census data，this paper calculates the national and provincial population reproductive indicators including NRR，T and k in China，and conducts a cluster analysis to classify the 31 provinces，cities and autonomous regions into four groups according to NRR and T． Results indicate that China has seen its intrinsic increase rate below-20‰ and NRR in 2000 and 2010 very close to 0. 5，implying a huge negative population momentum potential． The population reproductive patterns in 31 regions show consistently reducing trends，and gaps among regions are getting smaller in the first decade of the 21st
century． The average lengths between generations are enlarging with a national average level of over 28 years． Such regions as Beijing and Guangdong have presented extremely late childbearing and extremely few children situation． The paper also discusses the possible influence of data defects on the results．

Keywords: Inertial Growth, Population Reproduction, 31 Regions in Mainland China, Cluster Analysis, National Population Census