关键词: 粮食, 耕地, 人口发展

Abstract: The study aims to explore food security and arable land guarantee for population development in China. The results indicate that the increase of future population and food consumption will be definitely coupled with a decrease in total arable land and per capita arable land area, as well as an increase in per capita food consumption and total food demand. The findings highlight that a total of 120 million ha of arable land will have to be reserved for ensuring grain demand of about 1.44 billion people at a per capita consumption level of 420-435 kg grain . And at a per capita consumption level of 450 kg grain, the grain production capacity of arable land could meet grain demand of about 1.47 billion people-estimated peak of the Chinese population. However, further increase in per capita grain occupancy is not optimistic, thanks to the restriction of limited arable land resources. The relationship between arable land area, food production and population suggests that emphasis on future food security be transferred into grain security, and the focus be placed on food production restricted by arable land and on the increasing grain consumption driven by population growth. Thus, special attention should be paid, on the one hand, to the arable land area and food production, i.e., improvement in land productivity, and on the other hand, to the security of food production and consumption through formation of moderate consumption ideology and establishment of reasonable food structure for proper intake of animal and plant nutrition. The study concludes that both production and consumption factors should be taken into consideration for ensuring the Chinese food security and arable land for population development in the middle and long run.

Keywords: Food security, Arable land guarantee, Population development