关键词: 居民消费, 年龄别消费模式, 老龄化, 城镇化, 中国家庭动态跟踪调查

Abstract: Based on the estimation of age-specific consumption pattern in both urban and rural China，this paper simulates and analyzes the impacts of population structure characterized by aging and urbanization on the household consumption in the near future，and quantifies their contributions．Results show that the household consumption presents a significant age pattern．Urban household consumption pattern differs remarkably from that of rural households within each age group．Assuming a constant consumption structure by age，population aging does not have strong impact on the aggregate household consumption in China in 2050 compared to that in 2010，although it can significantly affect the consumption structure．For example，population aging leads to a growth of health care consumption． Population urbanization can considerably promote the household consumption．The impact of population size on the household consumption will be far less than that of population aging and urbanization．Their contributions to the consumption are relatively stable under various scenarios of population projection and economic growth．

Keywords:  Household Consumption, Age-specific Consumption Pattern, Aging, Urbanization, Chinese Family Panel Studies ( CFPS)