关键词: 流动人口 , 长期居留意愿 , 流动时间

Abstract:          Based on the dynamic monitoring data collected by the National Health and Family Planning Commission on floating population in 2015， this paper applies logistic regression model to analyze migrant long-term residence tendency in cities． The results show that migrant long-term residence tendency is influenced by their demographic， human capital， and economic characteristics， through which this migrant group has demonstrated a new feature of differentiation．Improvement of education enhances individual＇s long-term residence tendency． Junior college education being the dividing point， the higher educated migrants present a stronger tendency of residence． The increase of income level has a significantly effect on the residential preference of the entire group． Income of 6000 yuan being the dividing point， the high-income group of migrants have a stronger long-term residence tendency than the low-income group． When added into the model the housing expenditure， the increased housing expenditure elevates migrant residential preference． However， it also has a negative effect on the residential preference of the high-income group．

Keywords: Migrants , Long-term Residence Tendency , Duration of Stay