人口研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (2): 61-69.

• 生育研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

2006~2016年少数民族省区生育水平研究——基于2017年全国生育状况抽样调查数据

原新1;刘绘如2,刘旭阳3,刘志晓4   

  1. 原新1,南开大学人口与发展研究所;刘绘如2,南开大学人口与发展研究所;刘旭阳3,南开大学人口与发展研究所;刘志晓4,南开大学人口与发展研究所
  • 出版日期:2019-03-29 发布日期:2019-04-17
  • 作者简介:原新,南开大学人口与发展研究所教授;刘绘如(通讯作者)、刘旭阳、刘志晓,南开大学人口与发展研究所博士研究生
  • 基金资助:
    本文是国家卫生和健康委员会研究课题“2017年全国生育状况抽样调查分析及全面两孩政策效果第三方评估”的阶段性研究成果。

Fertility Levels and Trends in Chinas Ethnic Minority Provinces, 2006-2016: Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey

Yuan Xin1,Liu Huiru2,Liu Xuyang3,Liu Zhixiao4   

  1. Yuan Xin , Institute of Population and Development, Nankai University of China; Liu Huiru, Liu Xuyang and Liu Zhixiao, Institute of Population and Development, Nankai University of China.
  • Online:2019-03-29 Published:2019-04-17

摘要: 文章使用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查中的少数民族省区数据,运用时期和队列指标,从数量、结构和时间3个维度来分析2006~2016年少数民族省区的生育水平。结果表明,少数民族省区总和生育率10年间趋势性上升,已然回到更替水平,高于全国平均值。其中,少数民族妇女生育率水平高于汉族;分孩次分析,少数民族妇女各孩次生育率水平均高于汉族,汉族二孩总和生育率上升明显,生育政策效果凸显;分民族分析,维吾尔族和苗族生育行为强劲,彝族倾向生育两个孩子,藏族生育冲动相对较弱;少数民族和汉族妇女生育高峰段均从20~24岁推迟至25~29岁,汉族高龄育龄妇女生育水平升高明显,生育年龄逐步提高,汉族生育年龄迟于少数民族。总体判断,少数民族省区处于适度的生育率水平。

关键词: 少数民族省区, 总和生育率, 终身生育率, 生育模式

Abstract: Based on 2017 China Fertility Survey data, this paper analyzes fertility levels and trends over 2006-2016 in the ethnic minority provinces in China, using period and cohort measures of fertility incorporating quantity, structure and timing dimensions. The results show that the total fertility rate of ethnic minority provinces has increased to the replacement level in the past ten years, which is higher than the national average. The fertility rate of ethnic minority population is higher than that of the Han nationality, and this is the case at all parities. The secondchild fertility of Han has increased tremendously, highlighting the marked effects of the twochild policy. By ethnic group, the Uygur and Miao have strong fertility behaviors, meanwhile the Yi tends to have two children, while the Tibetans are reluctant to have more children. The fertility peak of ethnic minorities and Han women of childbearing age has been postponed from 20-24 years to 25-29 years, and the fertility level at the older age group of Han nationality has increased, pushing up the mean age at childbearing with that being higher of Han nationality than that of ethnic minorities. Overall, the ethnic minority provinces are at a moderately high fertility level.

Keywords: Ethnic Minority Provinces, Total Fertility Rate, Lifetime Fertility Rate, Fertility Pattern