关键词: 婚姻挤压, 乡—城转移, 城乡差异, 全面两孩

Abstract: Using data from 2010 census, this paper constructs a discrete development model and predicts the age and gender structure of never married population from 2010 to 2060 separately for China's urban and rural areas. Spousal sex ratio index of marriage is used to measure the marriage squeeze of never-married men, and this study also decomposes the impacts of age structure, gender structure and spouse age differences on marriage squeeze by urban and rural areas. The results show that, from 2010 to 2060, the urban-rural difference in marriage squeeze of never-married men shows a fluctuating trend. The urban-rural gap will drop gradually till 2025, then rise steadily to 2050 and start to drop again. The urban-rural difference in gender structure contributes largely to the urban-rural disparity in marriage squeeze of never-married men. The implementation of the universal two-child policy might alleviate the marriage squeeze, while ruralurban migration exacerbates the rural-urban disparities in marriage squeeze. The government should take necessary measures as soon as possible to improve the effect of the universal two-child policy and pay attention to the influence of rural-urban migration on the marriage squeeze of rural men.

Keywords: Marriage Squeeze, Rural-urban Migration, Urban and Rural Gap, The Universal Two-child Policy