关键词: 人口年龄结构, 住房价格, 城镇居民家庭消费, 结构效应, 调节效应

Abstract: :A question of considerable interest and importance is whether China's population age structure changes caused by population aging and the universal twochild policy can improve household consumption in the new era. This paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of demographic age structure, housing price and household consumption, and conducts empirical research by using SYS-GMM model. The results reveal that both the child and elderly dependency ratios have direct positive effect on the improvement of urban households' consumption level and consumption structure, while the variable of housing price plays a significant negative moderating role on this positive effect. Therefore, this study proposes that the increase of dependency ratio brought by the universal two-child policy and population aging trend has great potential for consumption, and the dependency burden could be transformed into the demographic structure dividend. Furthermore, real estate regulation policies should be continued so as to avoid the excessively rapid rise of housing prices and unleash demographic structure dividend to help improve urban household consumption level and optimize urban household consumption structure.

Keywords: Population Age Structure, Housing Price, Urban Household Consumption, Structural Effect, Moderating Effect