关键词: 低生育率陷阱, 总和生育率, 低于更替水平生育意愿

Abstract: Using total fertility rate (TFR) of below 1.5 for over 20 years as the criterion for judging the low-fertility trap, this research examines the trend of fertility change in 66 countries and regions that entered the post-transitional stage before 1997. Three main findings are as follows: First, the low-fertility trap is not accidental; the risk of low-fertility trap has spread from 22 countries and regions to other parts of the world. Second, the low-fertility trap is not inevitable. There are 21 countries and regions where TFR has never fallen below 1.5, and most of them have remained above 1.7 or 1.8 in most years. Third, the low-fertility trap is not unescapable, but only a small number of countries and regions have succeeded. China has long stood and fluctuated at the critical level of the low-fertility trap, the average fertility intension level is significantly lower than the replacement level, and other demographic factors that have a negative impact on fertility have strengthened, there is a high risk of falling into the low-fertility trap.

Keywords: Low-fertility Trap, Total Fertility Rate, Sub-replacement Fertility Intentions