关键词: 生育转变, 人口负增长, 人口预测, 未来人口态势

Abstract: For thousands of years, the Chinese population has approximately been following exponential growth, with occasionally short-term exogenous decrease. In the 1990s, the intrinsic rate of natural increase turned negative, indicating the accumulation of negative population growth momentum. One quarter of prefecturelevel regions in China experienced negative population growth by 2010, as a result of population floating and migration. Population natural decrease was observed in 8% of county-level regions in China in 2010. According to the medium-variant population projection, China's population growth would become negative after 2027. The negative growth of working-age population would be much earlier and more rapidly than that of total population in the first half of this century. The older population would grow rapidly during this period. Negative population growth is not only a matter of quantity, but also of structure, which is directly affected by fertility, mortality and age structure changes. The mutually reinforcing process might happen between negative population growth and ageing. 

Keywords: Fertility Transition, Negative Population Growth, Population Projection, Demographic Future