关键词:  , 赴港生子, 公地悲剧, 人口规模, 生育文化, 生存安全

Abstract:  The emerging population phenomenon involving more and more mainland women going to Hong Kong to give birth provides us with an unprecedented opportunity to reveal new insights into and implications for future population growth and development.To the best of our knowledge,this study is the first linking the phenomenon of "Giving Birth in Hong Kong" to the theory of "Tragedy of the Commons".Through systematic analysis and model deduction,we aim to demonstrate two main points: First,the quality-quantity substitution rate of children is expected to decrease under the condition of gender preference;Second,the rich people would have more intentions to reproduce if family planning constraints are to be loosen.Accordingly,a theoretical exploration is conducted on the theory of the tragedy of the commons caused by the family′s rational reproductive choice.This study warns that birth rate tends to be going up in the economically developed areas,and as such,there is increasing potential of fertility rate bing rebounding.Therefore,we should stick tightly to the population control policy while strengthening family planning policy implementation and enhancing the new fertility culture.

Keywords:  Giving Birth in Hong Kong, Fertility Tragedy of the Commons, Population Size, Fertility Culture, Survival Security