关键词: 城乡差异, 失能老年人, 健康状态转移概率矩阵, 照护时间需求

Abstract: China's disabled and semi-disabled elderly population has grown rapidly and its distribution between urban and rural areas is uneven. Utilizing the 2011 and 2014 CLHLS data, this paper introduces the measurement of transition intensity to construct the health state transition probability matrix, and predict the population size of disabled elderly and the care time needs by urban and rural areas. The main conclusions are: (1) The probability of urban and rural older people with moderate and severe disability will increase with age and deterioration of initial health. (2) In 2050, the population of moderately and severely disabled aged 65 and above will reach over 83 million, which is about 3 times that in 2020. The ratio of the number of moderately disabled older people aged 65 to 74 in urban over rural areas has increased from 2.04 in 2020 to 7.77 in 2050. 2020-2040, the number of moderately and severely disabled older people aged 75 to 84 in rural areas will always be higher than that in urban areas. In 2020, the ratio of the number of moderately and severely disabled older people aged 65 to 74 in rural over urban areas will reach peaks of 1.74 and 2.38 respectively. (3) The average duration time of moderate disability of older people aged 65 to 74 in urban areas is 1.34 times that in rural areas, and the average duration time of the severe disability of older people in the same age group is 1.28 times that in urban areas.

Keywords: Urban Rural Differences, Disabled Older People, Health State Transition Probability Matrix, Care Time Needs