关键词: 沙利文法, 贝叶斯拓展, 预期寿命, 无残损预期寿命, 残损扩张

Abstract: Based on the mortality data of the Chinese population and the cross-sectional health data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study, this paper uses the Bayesian extension method of Sullivan's method to study life expectancy, impairment-free life expectancy, and their changes over time among people aged 50 and over with different education levels. The results show that the higher the education level, the longer the life expectancy and the longer the impairment-free life expectancy. The higher the education level, the higher the proportion of impairment-free life expectancy in life expectancy. At the same level of education, women live longer than men, but they have shorter impairment-free life expectancy and longer impairment survival than men of the same age; Higher levels of education have a greater effect on physical function in younger age groups and in men; From 2013 to 2018, the growth rate of life expectancy for people aged 50 years and above exceeded that of impairment-free life expectancy, and there was a phenomenon of impairment expansion. Improving the education level of the population can effectively slow down the expansion rate of physical dysfunction.

Keywords: Sullivan's Method, Bayesian Extension, Life Expectancy, Impairment-free Life Expectancy, Impairment Expansion