人口研究 ›› 2024, Vol. 48 ›› Issue (2): 30-43.

• 人口专项调查分析——中国的不婚、不育和少育 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国不婚、不育和少育的状况、影响因素与政策应对——中国不婚不育少育群体专项调查主要数据结果分析

杨凡, 郭品锐, 刘甲楠   

  • 出版日期:2024-03-29 发布日期:2024-03-29
  • 作者简介:杨凡,中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心副教授;郭品锐,中国人民大学社会与人口学院博士研究生;刘甲楠(通讯作者),中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心师资博士后。电子邮箱:jiananliu@ruc.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    本研究得到中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)项目“与高质量发展相均衡的劳动力发展指标体系研究”(22XNQT33)的支持。

The Situation, Influencing Factors, and Policy Responses to Singlehood, Childlessness, and Low Fertility in China: Findings from a Specialized Survey

Yang Fan, Guo Pinrui, Liu Jianan   

  • Published:2024-03-29 Online:2024-03-29
  • About Author:Yang Fan is Associate Professor, Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China; Guo Pinrui is PhD Candidate, School of Sociology and Population Studies, Renmin University of China; Liu Jianan (Corresponding Author) is Post-doctoral Fellow, Center for Population and Development Studies, Renmin University of China. Email: jiananliu@ruc.edu.cn

摘要:人们婚育意愿和行为的变化是导致生育率下降的重要原因。基于中国不婚不育少育群体专项调查数据,对不婚晚婚、不育晚育和少育3类特定育龄群体在当前生育政策背景下的婚育意愿及其影响因素进行深入分析。研究发现,3类群体中的大部分人仍然是愿意结婚、愿意生育的,导致他们意愿和行为发生偏离的主要原因是婚育成本的升高,包括经济成本、时间成本等,此外,文化舆论的影响也值得重视;对于三孩生育政策及配套支持措施,超两成已婚受访者认为其对自身的生育计划有正向影响;降低孩子教育费用、发放育儿津贴和提供带薪育儿假是3类群体普遍的政策诉求。鉴于此,要通过多样化的经济支持政策降低家庭育儿成本,制定全生命周期的婚育支持政策,通过文化建设传递积极向上的婚育观念。

关键词: 不婚不育, 晚婚晚育, 婚育意愿, 婚育支持政策

Abstract: Changes in people's marital and fertility intentions and behaviors play a significant role in declining fertility rates. Based on data from a specialized survey, this paper investigates the intentions and determinants of marriage and fertility within distinct childbearing-age groups, concerning non-marriage or delayed marriage, childlessness or delayed childbearing, and low fertility, under the background of current fertility policies. It finds that the majority of individuals in these groups still wish to marry and have children. The main reasons for the divergence between their intentions and behaviors are the rising costs of marriage and childbearing, including economic and time costs. Furthermore, the impact of cultural and public opinion cannot be overlooked. Regarding the Three-child policy and supporting measures, over twenty percent of the married respondents consider them effective in boosting childbearing intentions. Reducing educational costs, providing child-rearing subsidies, and ensuring parental leave are the common policy demands. Therefore, it is crucial to reduce the costs of child-rearing for families through diversified economic support, establish a comprehensive lifecycle marital and childbearing support policy system, and convey positive marital and childbearing concepts through cultural development.

Keywords: Singlehood and Childlessness, Delayed Marriage and Fertility, Marital and Fertility Intentions, Marital and Childbearing Support Policies