关键词: 二氧化碳排放, 人口增长, 消费水平, 变参数模型

Abstract: With global climate warming,the problem of carbon dioxide emissions reduction has attracted worldwide attention in the recent past.As the largest carbon emitter,China must gradually reduce the carbon emissions in the process of economic development.Drawing on the time series data between 1978 to 2009 and using variable parameter model,this paper analyzes the dynamic effects on carbon dioxide emissions of population and consumption in China.Results show that there is a long-term stable relationship among population,consumption and carbon dioxide emissions,and the effects of population and consumption are very significant.Overall,the population elasticity is greater than the consumption elasticity,but the gap becomes smaller in recent years.Influence of consumption is increasing.There is a regular pattern in the trend of impact elasticity of population and consumption,and the trend can be divided into three distinct phases.With these findings,this paper discusses policy implications for reducing carbon dioxide emissions relating to population and consumption.

Keywords: Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Population, Consumption, Variable Parameter Model