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    Recent Changes in Support Allocation for Older Parents in Multi-child Families: An Analysis of Gender and Birth-order Differences
    Liu Chengbin, Yu Wenhao
    Population Research    2026, 50 (5): 101-115.  
    Abstract (1185)            Save
    Family support for older parents is often treated as an aggregate transfer from children to parents, although financial support and housework assistance are distributed among siblings within multi-child families. Using the 2014, 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2023 waves of the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS), this study matches respondents aged 60 or older with their two to five living adult children, yielding 39850 family-year observations and 114023 parent-child-year records. It distinguishes participation breadth, within-family share evenness, primary-provider separation, and share differences between financial support and housework assistance. A support-sharing index combines the proportion of participating adult children with a number-of-children-adjusted measure of within-family share evenness. The index describes observed behavioral distributions rather than normative obligations, negotiation, cooperation, or perceived fairness.

    The results show that participation broadens and support-score shares become more dispersed for both forms of support. From 2014 to 2023, the support-sharing index for financial support rises from 0.757 to 0.884, while the corresponding index for housework assistance increases from 0.520 to 0.703. After adjustment for family characteristics, the differences between 2023 and 2014 in both component indices and the overall index are positive in families with two, three, four, and five adult children, although they are smaller in five-child families. Family-level total scores for both forms of support show no sustained decline. The findings remain robust to a 500-yuan participation threshold for financial support, alternative score assignments, individual fixed-effects models based on five waves linked through verified respondent identities, and fractional logit models. Estimates within each fixed child-number group provide the most direct evidence against a purely mechanical denominator effect. Hence, declining numbers of adult children alone therefore do not account for the observed aggregate trend.

    Financial support consistently shows a higher level of sharing than housework assistance, consistent with the greater divisibility, additivity, and transferability of money and goods across distance. Unadjusted primary-provider separation fluctuates across survey years. The within-family distributions of support shares across siblings become more similar, whereas the unadjusted proportion of families with no overlap between primary providers of the two support types increases by about 1.4 percentage points between 2014 and 2023. After adjustment for family characteristics, however, primary-provider separation increases significantly by 7.2 percentage points between 2014 and 2023.

    Within families containing at least one son and one daughter, son-daughter differences vary significantly across survey years in both financial support and housework assistance. In all eligible families, birth-order differences also vary significantly across survey years in both support types. These patterns are nonmonotonic: neither gender differences nor birth-order differences consistently widen or narrow over time. The findings describe observed behavioral distributions. The survey cannot determine whether broader participation and more dispersed shares arise from negotiated coordination, parental mobilization, low-intensity participation, or changes in individual contributions. Policy interventions should identify actual primary support providers and address time-intensive tasks rather than assign responsibility on the basis of gender or birth order. Future research should combine sibling-level longitudinal data with measures of negotiation, fairness, personal care, support quality, and caregiver burden.

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    Dual Determinants of Higher-order Fertility Intentions: An Empirical Study of Fertility Support and Fertility Desire
    Jia Hongwen, Xu Ying, Chen Yuanyuan, Wu Jiyu
    Population Research    2026, 50 (5): 116-132.  
    Abstract (1124)            Save
    China's total fertility rate has declined to ultra-low level. Against this backdrop, this study investigates the determinants of subsequent childbearing intentions for a second or third child among Chinese individuals of reproductive age.

    The existing literature typically assumes, either explicitly or implicitly, that individuals of reproductive age have a son preference—specifically, a desire to have at least one son—and accordingly treats the number of existing children and whether they have a son or not as separate core explanatory variables in estimating the likelihood of subsequent childbearing. However,currently more than half of the reproductive-age population has shifted their ideal family structure toward having one son and one daughter. To address this gap, this paper contributes to the literature by conceptualizing “fertility intention” as a construct that encompasses both subjective goal orientation and realized outcomes. Specifically, we investigate how fertility support and fertility desire interact to shape subsequent childbearing intentions, and examine which dimension of unfulfilled preference—quantity or sex—exerts a stronger influence on the decision to have another child. Particular attention is paid to complex scenarios in which the quantity preference is satisfied but the sex preference is not, or vice versa.

    Drawing on data from the 2021 Chinese General Social Survey (CGSS) and employing an ordered logit model, this empirical analysis reveals that household annual income exerts an inverted U-shaped effect on higher-order fertility intentions, peaking at approximately RMB 400,000. Both grandparental care and childcare services facilitate subsequent childbearing intentions. Reproductive-age individuals exhibit no significant preference regarding the public or private nature of childcare institutions, yet remain sensitive to the pricing of high-quality services. Under specific economic constraints, individuals are generally unwilling to exceed their intended family size solely to satisfy a sex preference. In contrast, when the actual number of children falls short of the desired level, having “more girls than desired” promotes the intention to have a third child. Conversely, having “more boys than desired” suppresses the intention for a third child, regardless of whether the existing number of children is below, equal to, or above the desired level. Furthermore, among those desiring at least one son and one daughter, the gender of the firstborn does not significantly affect second-child fertility intention.

    Based on these findings, the following policy implications are proposed. First, expanding the coverage of childcare subsidies and educational burden-reduction initiatives is necessary to alleviate the economic pressures of childrearing for ordinary families. Second, reforms targeting marriage customs are required to promote a more equitable sharing of marital responsibilities between the families of the bride and groom, thereby alleviating the long-term financial burden on families with sons. Finally, public health and social interventions should aim to cultivate a positive and supportive marriage and childbearing environment, progressively building a favorable landscape where people of childbearing age are willing, confident, and eager to expand their family.

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