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Trends and Characteristics of Male Marriage Squeeze in China
Guo Zhen, Yang Liuqing, Liang Haili, Li Shuzhuo
Population Research 2023, 47 (
6
): 91-106.
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344
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Using data from China's 7th Census and previous census data since 1990, this paper analyzes the trends and characteristics of marriage squeeze among men in recent decades. Results show that the marriage squeezes among men and its consequences have significantly manifested. The sex ratio of marriageable population has sharply increased from 2010 to 2020, and it is projected to peak at 116.13 by 2036. Unlike in the past, when the phenomenon was primarily concentrated in socio-economically underdeveloped regions, the surplus of never married men in economically developed areas with high urbanization rates becomes apparent. The marriage squeeze among men leads to substantial gender disparities in first marriage probabilities, with significantly lower probabilities of first marriage for men compared to women and a substantial increase in the expected number of years for never married men to get married. The scale of rural involuntary bachelors remains elevated, with urban areas experiencing a growing population of involuntary bachelors. The urban never married men aged 45 and above increased from 1.76 million to 3.88 million from 2010 to 2020. Involuntary bachelors have relatively limited economic resources, increased reliance on minimum subsistence allowance, and a rising proportion of unhealthy and solitary life in old age.
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Period and Cohort Analysis of Inter-provincial Lifetime Migration in China
Zhou Hao, Lei Linxuan
Population Research 2023, 47 (
6
): 107-125.
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172
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Birthplace information is crucial for migration studies, enabling identification of lifetime migrants. Using data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 censuses, this research depicts inter-provincial lifetime migration in China, outlines national- and provincial-level migration trends, directions, and age patterns. The results suggest that lifetime migration reflects historical and contemporary migration, while the historical marks gradually fade. Its spatial distribution shows the characteristics of diffusion for the places of origin and diffusion-and-concentration for the destinations, while China's population remains relatively static. Cohort analysis highlights that lifetime migration has a cumulative effect over time and is closely associated with life events. The study concludes that birthplace information has a unique research perspective distinct from others, and calls for further research on the conditions and causal mechanisms of bidirectional migration flows.
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