Amid the intensifying structural challenges of low fertility and population aging in China, conventional population projections fall short of capturing the evolving dynamics of households—the fundamental units of society. As a result, these projections offer an insufficient empirical basis for informing comprehensive public policy formulation. Addressing this gap, the present study conducts a dynamic simulation of future household changes in China, drawing upon the core framework of the Extended Cohort-Component Method for Household and Living Arrangement Projections (ProFamy). This study integrates four key modules—mortality, fertility, marriage, and leaving home/household formation—to simulate the trajectory of household change in China over the next three decades.
The findings reveal a profound and multifaceted transformation of Chinese households. In terms of quantity and size, although the total number of households continues to rise, average household size steadily declines, reflecting a persistent trend toward smaller household units. One-person households are projected to become the dominant household type. Two-person households show a modest increase in absolute number but a declining share in the overall household structure. By contrast, households comprising three or more persons exhibit sustained declines in both number and proportion.
At the structural level, significant shifts are observed in the age composition and functional characteristics of households. First, elderly households—those containing members aged 65 and above—are becoming increasingly common. Notably, households including the oldest-old (aged 80 and above) are growing at a particularly rapid pace. Solo-living among the elderly and two-person elderly-only households will become increasingly common. Second, the proportion of households with children (aged 18 and below) is systematically declining. Third, the number of young adult households—those comprising individuals aged 20 to 49—is expected to increase initially but eventually decline, accompanied by a sustained rise in young adults living alone. A related and critical development is the pronounced decrease in both the number and share of childbearing households—defined here as households containing a married woman of reproductive age. Fourth, while nuclear families are decreasing in number and stem families are increasing slightly, both categories are losing ground in terms of their relative share among all household types.
These trends point to three major structural risks facing Chinese households. The first is the simultaneous growth in the number of households and the contraction in household size, which together weaken traditional family functions such as caregiving and intra-household economic support. The second is the impending inversion of the household age structure, wherein elderly households are projected to substantially outnumber households with children. The third is the contraction of the young adult demographic and the associated decline in childbearing households, undermining both social vitality and the foundations of demographic reproduction. Collectively, these changes pose considerable challenges to the planning and delivery of public services, the robustness of the social security system, and the formulation of medium- and long-term socioeconomic strategies. The findings underscore the urgent need for policy frameworks to move beyond individual-level demographic projections and proactively adapt to the shifting structure and needs of households.
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