Table of Content

29 January 2014, Volume 38 Issue 1

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Low Fertility Trap: Theories，Facts and Implications

Jin Yongai

2014, 38(1):  3-17. 

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The Low Fertility Trap Hypothesis proposes that there are three self-reinforcing mechanisms—demographic，sociological and economic，working towards a downward spiral in future fertility. Once TFR drops below 1. 5，it will be difficult to recover. The fertility recovery emerging in many countries across the world has challenged the low-fertility trap theory and also the justification of the theory itself. So low-fertility trap is more likely a pattern summarized from a short-time phenomenon than a generalized social law. As with China，the current fertility level is above 1. 5 births per woman，and China is not in the“Low-fertility trap”. Moreover most recent surveys suggest that current fertility intention in China is above 1. 8 births per woman and more than 60 percent of people would have a second child if there is an adjustment of fertility policy. In addition，birth postponement is still playing an import role in reducing TFR in China. Thus，with the high fertility intention，adjustment of family planning policy and decreasing tempo effect，TFR in China will experience upturn but not further decline in the near future.It is lack of evidence to conclude that China has already been or is going to be trapped in low fertility.

The Effect of Fertility on Women's Wages in China

Yu Jia, Xie Yu

2014, 38(1):  18-29. 

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Using 1993 － 2006 China Health and Nutrition Survey data，we test the motherhood penalty hypothesis with fixed-effects models. We find that fertility has a significant negative influence on women's wage and that each additional child lowers hourly wages by about 7 percent. In addition，the negative effect becomes larger as the number of children increases. The hypothesis holds true even if the women's human capital，job characteristics and family constraints are taken into account. We further explore whether the motherhood penalty varies by social group. The results show that the negative effect of having children is especially pronounced among women with high levels of education，women holding professional and managerial jobs，and women working in the state sector. The study shows that family factors play an important role in contributing to gender disparities in earnings and perhaps other labor market outcomes in contemporary China.

Reflections on Sampling of Migrants Surveys

Zhuang Yaer， Li Bohua

2014, 38(1):  30-36. 

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This paper describes and discusses issues on the establishment of sampling frame，replicate selection and linking after selection，the relation between target population and frame population in migrants surveys. Experience shows that when preparing the sampling frame of migrants surveys，researchers
not only need the support of relevant database，but also should pay particular attention to the effects of accidental factors. For oversized or undersized sample units，a relatively simple approach is to replicate selection，or link sample units after selection. In addition，in a survey whose target population
is the“Registered-household Population”，the relation between target population and frame population in specific areas will appear as“one-to-many”as a result of impacts of cross-border migrant outflows.Thus，post-weighting is necessary when processing data. To ensure the effectiveness of the postweighting，the characteristics of population flows in different provinces should be taken into account，especially the size of floating population both across and within province in the survey sample. Data processing of 2013 National Fertility Desires Survey indicates that the grouping variables and number of groups of post-weighting in different provinces are not exactly the same，but subject to some flexibility.

From the“Left-behind Children”to“New Generation of Migrant Workers”: Drop-out and Its Implication for High school-age Left-behind Children in Rural China

Lv Lidan

2014, 38(1):  37-50. 

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It is showed that the school attendance rate of left-behind Children drops sharply once they reach the high school age according to the 2010 population census data. The social status of high school-aged left-behind children changes to new generation migrant workers if they join in the migration flow after their dropout. This paper proposes 3 hypotheses to test the effects of left-behind experiences and age at migration on their current income based on the Dynamic Supervision Survey of Floating Population conducted by the State Family Planning Commission in 2011. Results demonstrate that both the left-behind experience in earlier childhood and the age at migration significantly affect new generation's income. The correlation between age at migration and income also explains why left-behind children intend to stop schooling in high school.

Changing Lineal Families with Three Generations: An Analysis of the 2010 Census Data

Wang Yuesheng

2014, 38(1):  51-62. 

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In contemporary China，lineal families with three generations have been a typical family formation since the early 1980s. However，this trend differs between urban and rural areas. When children growing up in urban one-child families，especially after their marriage and childbearing，most of
them would not change their preference for a small family. In rural areas，the number of families with only one son has increased since the early 1980s. When growing up，most of those sons work outside the villages. Once getting married and bearing child，they need help from their parents for housework
and childcare. Since such family arrangement is beneficial to young people，its proportion has increased. The majority of the householders of lineal families with three generations were in the middle and early old age in 2010 and their family function of supporting elderly has been weakened. More than half of the lineal families with three generations have no members aged 65 and above in 2010. At the same time，the infant proportion of the lineal families with three generations has gradually increased since the early 1980s. The function of taking care of children has been enhanced in this kind of family.

An Exploration of Family Happiness Development Index

Tao Tao，Yang Fan，Zhang Huanjun，Zhao Menghan

2014, 38(1):  63-76. 

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Utilizing data collected in the survey of China’s Family Happiness Development Index by Renmin University of China and China Population Welfare Foundation，this article explores the factors affecting the happiness of China’s families. There are four dimensions of the factors affecting family happiness:
income and housing estate are the most important factors in economic dimension; physical and mental health is the foundation of a happy family; higher education，better relationship and more leisure will increase the happiness level; better social security and social network will secure the family happiness. Differing from the existing Happiness Indexes which evaluate happiness from individual level or regional level，this article focuses on‘family’as the study object to construct the‘Family Happiness Index’to evaluate the capability of becoming happier instead of assessing the status of happiness. Based on the four dimensions，including economics，health，civilization and society，this index consists of 35 indicators with a combination of subjective and objective factors.

An Empirical Study of the Impact of Demographic Factors on Regional Consumption: Based on China's Provincial Data

Shi Beibei，Wang Jinying

2014, 38(1):  77-89. 

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This paper investigates the regional consumption function of China's provinces based on the panel data of 31 provinces from 2000 to 2010，in order to explore the effects of demographic factors on regional consumption. The results show that demographic variables such as the level of urbanization and schooling，the inflowing rate of external population，and the degree of aging have significant impact on the regional consumption. Apart from this，the influences of demographic factors on consumption vary from place to place，which is caused by the discrepancies of population effects among regions.
Thus，we draw the conclusion: at the regional level，the lagged development of urbanization hinders the expansion of consumption and domestic demand; the unevenness of educational level prevents the optimizing of consumption models; the aggregation effect of transient population promotes the consumption level; and the full use of age structure unleashes the regional consumption advantages.

Residence Points System: Another“Patch”of Household Registration Reform? Characteristics，Problems and Countermeasures of Shanghai Residence Points System

Xie Baofu

2014, 38(1):  90-97. 

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While residence points system has advantages in redirecting from management by conditions to management by points，diversifying points standards which are dynamic controllable，stratifying public services，orientating towards capabilities and contributions，and emphasizing local interests，there are also disadvantages in，for example，ignoring service management for the low income floating population，using efficiency means to solve equity problem，diminishing the quality of key services，and having difficulties in preventing rent-seeking behavior through fraud. To improve the system，residence card is needed to replace residence permit，allowing floating population to use for all consumption purposes. Application standards need to be lowered and the scope of public services needs to be expanded. However，in the areas of public rental housing，children＇s education and some other key services，there should be reasonable threshold. Provide appropriate quotas to those floating population who don’t meet the points but are legally residing and employed，allowing them to enjoy the same treatment with qualified applicants. Emancipate the mind，seek truth from facts，and properly solve localization service issues for low-income floating population. Since household registration involves interests that affect the situation as a whole，improving the system will need system and mechanism innovation of the national macro-management.

Passive Smoking and Its Health Risk among Chinese Elderly: A Life Course Perspective

Wang Weijin，Zeng Yi，Lu Jiehua

2014, 38(1):  98-112. 

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According to the 2011 － 2012 wave data of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) ，passive smoking influences all life stages of Chinese elderly. Not only the prevalence of passive smoking is high in elderly's lives，but also the duration is quite long. From the perspective of individual's life course，this study shows that current passive smoking at home or public places，and passive smoking during childhood as well as young-or middle-ages increases the elderly's risk of depression; current passive smoking at home has an adverse effect on self-reported health. Meanwhile，passive smoking at home during childhood，young- or middle-ages and currently passive smoking at public places substantially increases the elderly's risk of daily life ability impairment . Moreover，passive smoking during young-or middle-ages as well as currently at public places increases the odds of self-reported chronic diseases. Finally，the positive relationship between passive smoking at public places and cognitive function may just reflect a selective effect of cognitive function on social participation at public places.