Table of Content

29 March 2014, Volume 38 Issue 2

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Demographic Consequences of an Immediate Transition to a Universal Two-child Policy

Zhai Zhenwu, Zhang Xianling, Jin Yongai

2014, 38(2):  3-17. 

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Fertility in China dropped below the replacement level in the early 1990s, and has been increasingly lower, arousing intense academic discussion on fertility policy adjustment．This paper estimates the size of objective population that is targeted by the two-child policy after computing the amount of the only children in 2012 based on the data of the 2005 national 1% population sampling survey, and analyzes its impact on number of annual births．The results show that on account of the large number of the objective population covered by the two-child policy and women's strong desire to have the second
child，if there was an immediate transition to a universal two-child policy, number of annual births would sharply increase with the peak value up to nearly 50 million and a total fertility rate of about 4.5．However, immediately implementing the two-child policy could significantly retard the negative growth trend of population in the future, increase labor supply and slow down population aging in China．

Growth Curve Trajectories of Elderly People's Health Indicators in China: Cohort Variations and Rural-urban Disparities

Li Ting; Zhang Yanlong

2014, 38(2):  18-35. 

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Understanding the changing patterns of the health indicators of older population and the influencing factors is important for correctly estimating the healthcare burden and promoting the life quality for older population. Previous studies based on cross-sectional or single birth cohort data cannot distinguish or control the cohort effects，which may lead to biased estimation of the trend. Using the multi-cohort data of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey ( CLHLS ( 1998—2011) ) ，this study investigates the growth curve trajectories of older people's self-rated health，Activities of Daily Living ( ADL) ，psychological wellbeing，and cognitive score; and explores their rural-urban disparities with full consideration of the cohort effects. The results suggest that the changing patterns of these health indicators and their population disparities are closely related to the cohort variations: ( 1) without controlling
the cohort effects，the estimation of age patterns would be biased; ( 2) there are cohort variations among the health trajectories; ( 3) within the same cohort，urban and rural elderly show significant differences in all of the health indicators; and ( 4) such differences in ADL and psychological wellbeing
change with cohort.

Continuity or Change? Chinese Family in Transitional Era

Yang Juhua, He Zhaohua

2014, 38(2):  36-51. 

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 With industrialization，urbanization and modernization, the family institution has inevitably undergone changes. China has witnessed extraordinary social transformations over the past three decades. These forces have jointly brought about profound changes to the family organization. This paper traces the changing trend, patterns and characteristics in family structure, explores the causes of such change, and analyzes its consequences to family relationships andfamily functions in recent years in China. It has found that family size has shrunk，number of generations in the family is reduced，family forms
become more diversified, and family relationship remain intimate but distanced. Also, many traditional family functions have been taken over by public agencies，and family norms and culture have been reshaped. While changesoccur in various ways and important challenges remain，the Chinese family has been so far resilient to societal transformation due to its deeply rooted tradition and current structural constraints. These have made intergenerational reciprocity attractive and prevented the Chinese family from decline. In the future, the government and the family have to face challenges brought about by demographic transition, persistently large-scale migration, and changing norms towards the family.

Changes and Challenges of Labour Supply in China in the Context of Population Ageing

Tong Yufen

2014, 38(2):  52-60. 

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China is experiencing an accelerated aging process. Population aging brings not only the changes of the size and proportion of the elderly population but the corresponding changes of the other age groups，especially of the labor-age population group，which has more profound and direct impact on the society and economy. This study uses primarily the United Nations latest population forecasting results to analyze the challenges and possible impacts of aging on labor supplies of the labor market in China. This study shows that although aging would cause a decline in the working-age population，the occurrence of which would be slow before 2030; however，the young labor force would experience a rapid decline. In addition，the aging of the labor force itself，as well as the increasing degree of aging in rural areas call for extra attention，suggesting that it is necessary to prepare relevant policies in advance.

Income Disparity between Migrants and Locals in Urban China

Wen Xingxiang

2014, 38(2):  61-70. 

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Although China has made great progress in urbanization，there remain a range of problems and challenges. One is the income disparity between migrant workers and urban locals. This paper utilizes the RUMiC baseline data to empirically analyze the income disparity problem using unconditional quintile and RIF regression decomposition method. The data show that the income gap increases from low to high quintile. The proportion of income disparity explained by structural effects also increases with the growth of income. However，there exists favorable income determination mechanism for migrant workers in the low income quintile. The main factors that contribute to the composition effects are human capital and occupational /industrial differences. Implications for policies in reducing income disparities are discussed.

Spatial Inequality and Distributional Dynamics of Population Ageing in China,1989-2011

Liu Huajun, He Liwei, Yang Qian

2014, 38(2):  71-82. 

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Using China's provincial data from 1989 to 2011 and population aging indexes represented by elderly population shares and elderly-young ratios，this article examines spatial inequality and distributional dynamics of China's population aging with Dagum's Gini coefficient and Kernel density estimation
method．GIS mapping visually demonstrates that China's population aging is characterized by significant spatial inequality．Gini coefficient and its decomposition suggest that the spatial distribution of population aging in China exhibits certain fluctuation．The disparity among regions is the major source
of overall inequality and the impact of intensity of trans-variation also grows steadily．Kernel density estimation indicates that the degree of population aging in China continues to be deepening and regional inequality is widening．

Health Behavior and Oral Health among Elderly People in China

Zheng Zhenzhen, Zhou Yun

2014, 38(2):  83-91. 

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Oral health of elderly people is an important health issue in aging society. Using 2011 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey ( CLHLS) data，this study explores relationships between older persons’oral health and three groups of factors，namely，social-economic，health behavior，and health related factors，using number of missing tooth as the representation of oral health. The study demonstrates that oral health of elderly in China is not satisfactory，and tooth loss is highly correlated with demographic factors and health behavior. While age is the most influential factor in tooth loss，oral
hygiene plays a very important role，and less frequent sugar consumption is preventive against tooth loss，regardless of gender and other social-economic status. The findings imply that change in health behavior and diet habits could play a more protective role in oral health.

Consumption Behavior of Rural-to-urban Migrants:Based on a Survey in Xi'an City

Sun Hua; Chen Liyong

2014, 38(2):  92-101. 

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The massive rural-to-urban migration has a large potential for consumption growth. Consumption behavior of migrants is different from that of the rural or urban local residents，affecting both gross consumption and consumption structure in urban and rural areas. Based on a survey in Xi'an City，the migrants' income is low and unstable，but their saving rate is relatively high. While their consumption is primarily at subsistence level，some of them have already begun to pursue growth-or enjoyment-centric consumption. Their sources of commodity information are limited，and most of them have online shopping experiences. Supermarket is the main option when they do shopping. They preferre quality and price to other factors. Based on the characteristics of consumer behavior described above，policy suggestions are discussed for government and retail enterprises. The government should pay more attention to the consuming potential of this group，promote the growth-or enjoyment-centric consumption，and fully develop the relevant social security systems such as medication，pension and children's education. Retailing enterprises may provide more common commodities with high functioncost ratio，introduce discounted prices and experience marketing，open shops in the condensed areas of rural-to-urban migrants，and offer more online shopping opportunities to promote new products to well-educated，young，or high-income groups.

Dropping Out of School for Work for Ｒural Youth and Its Determinants

Liu Chengbin

2014, 38(2):  102-112. 

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In addressing long-term development of rural youth，this article explores the phenomenon and the mechanisms of school dropout for migrant work for rural youth which is currently a common social problem in China．The analysis based on survey data shows that dropout for migrant work is related to the following factors: the distance between rural and urban society，individuals' economic attitude，their perspective on macro-social trends，and their parents' educational concept and method．Other than the structural issue on the urban-rural differences，the decision of rural youth of school dropout for migrant work is made by an economic-rationality-based model．However，dropout for migrant work should not be considered solely as a personal issue of rural youth，but also a social problem that needs to be addressed through policy adjustment．Therefore，it is suggested that a gradient based migration policy be adopted to avoid a single，utilitarian and economically orientated perspective．