Table of Content

29 July 2014, Volume 38 Issue 4

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Accumulated Couples and Fertility Release under the New Fertility Policy

Yao Yinmei，Li Fen，Yin Wenyao

2014, 38(4):  3-18. 

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We elaborate on the theoretical principle of estimating the size of accumulated couples under the new birth policy，involving four fertility release patterns and calculation procedures. Using these methods，we have estimated the scale of the accumulated couples and the numbers of new born second children. First，the number of accumulated couples would be at around 26.12 million in 2014 and vanish by 2040. Second，the proportion of accumulated couples to the couples of reproductive age would increase then decrease，and the peak proported would stand at around 7.9%. Third，the age structure of the accumulated women would be heavily at age 35 and below who have strong reproductive capacity. Fourth，the spatial distribution of fertility release would be uneven，with the urban area and the Eastern region having more accumulated couples and fertility release，and the provinces including Jianasu and Shangdong are the key provinces. Fifth，the number of fertility release would account for 30%-37% of the total accumulated children in first 5 years. Therefore，the new birth policy would have a smooth transition as long as we do the best to implement the new policy in the first five to ten years.

Strategic Thinking on Developing Small and Medium-sized Cities to Balance Urbanization

Gu Shengzu, Zheng Chao,Cao Yubo

2014, 38(4):  19-26. 

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Small and medium-sized cities have played important roles in China's new urbanization strategies. Small and medium-sized cities can not only help large cities avert over-concentration of population，but also avoid excessively decentralized rural industrialization in small towns. To develop small and medium-sized cities，characteristic industries and vocational education are required so that people can get employed in the cities and become residents easily. City infrastructure and public services are necessary for urban residents. Public-Private Partnership (PPP) may solve the problems of fund shortage that the local government is facing during the construction. Besides，supply system of accommodations should be modernized to help the rural-urban migration's dream of being settled down come true.

Differences in Living Arrangement between Only Children and Non-only Children

Yuan Xin,Mu Yingtan

2014, 38(4):  27-36. 

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Using data from the 2008 Chinese General Social Survey，the article examines patterns and determinants of living arrangement of young people (aged 18-32 with at least one parent alive)，contrasting only children with non-only children. Results show that demographic characteristics，offspring demand and the only child status have significant impacts on the choice of living arrangement of the young children，while parental demand also plays a role in the choice of living arrangement of the only children. Logistic decomposition models suggest that the differences in living arrangement between the only children and the non-only children are largely a result of differences in their choice of living arrangement.Socio-demographic characteristics explain a relatively small proportion of the differences.Disadvantageous population structure in the only-child families is the major determinant of their living arrangement.  

Age-gender Pattern in Household Electricity Consumption and Policy Implications for Electricity Conservation and Emission Reduction

Mi Hong，Ren Zhengwei

2014, 38(4):  37-50. 

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Electricity power is the most frequently used secondary energy and the most population / household-related energy in human societies. The age and gender structure of population in Chinese households have changed to be much more diversified，which would have a significant impact on the residential electricity consumption at the household level. In order to examine the age-gender pattern in household electricity consumption，we use pooled data from the CFPS baseline database which includes age and gender of all the household members，decomposing household-level electricity consumption into individual-level age-gender pattern by defining the age-gender index as a key variable in the regression model. The results indicate that the impact of household size on per capital electricity usage differs between age-gender population groups. The age pattern presents a"inverted U”shape，while the gender pattern is“higher for females than males". 25-34 year old female population，which has a positive effect on per capital electricity usage，is the most important subject in household electricity consumption. Making and adjusting policy of multistep electricity price and prediction and planning of residential electricity consumption should take age and gender structure of population in households into consideration.

Livelihood and Development Capacity of Families Obeying the Family Planning Policy in Rural China

Du Benfeng, Li Biqing

2014, 38(4):  50-63. 

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This paper examines and evaluates livelihood capital and development capacity of families obeying the family planning policy in rural China employing a sustainable livelihood analytical framework. Comparisons are made between families obeying the family planning policy and those violating the policy，and families obeying the family planning policy are classified into different types according to their structure of children and development stages. Results show that child structure is affecting development capacity of rural families obeying the family planning policy，and they have less livelihood capitals when they are at stages of nurturing the young，owing income and supporting the old with relatively long period of inadequate development capacity. Development capacity is considerably challenged when the families enter into the stage of supporting the old with the lowest level of family livelihood.  

Determinants of Changes in Housing Sources for Migrant Workers in Urban China

Wang Yujun, Yang Wenhui, Liu Zhilin

2014, 38(4):  63-75. 

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Housing for migrant workers has become a major social challenge to the large-scale urbanization in China. Many studies have demonstrated housing disadvantages of temporary migrants in thatmigrants have limited access to both market-based housing due to their economic conditions and government-
sponsored affordable housing due to their official residency (hukou). In particular，much literature has analyzed institutional and individual factors of migrant housing conditions. This paper，however，investigates the extent to which migrant workers are able to move from employer-provided dorms or housing provided by social ties to market-based housing while working and living in cities，and institutional and individual factors contributing to such changes. Statistical analysis using data derived from a twelve-city migrant survey shows that，whereas most migrant workers live in dorms from employers and housing from social ties upon moving to cities，many of them gradually move to rent or even purchasing housing from formal and informal housing markets. The odds of such change are significantly influenced by factors such as years of working in the city，types of migration，willingness to permanently settle in the city，migrant social capital，education and types of Danwei .  

Social Mobility of Females in Rural China: An Assortative Mating Perspective

Wei Yan，Tsay Wen-Jen

2014, 38(4):  75-86. 

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Multi-dimensions and various mechanism of social mobility can be understood by an analysisof the role of assortative mating.  Based on the data of China General Social Survey in 2006 (CGSS 2006) and by employing the Probit model as well as the Binary Endogenous Ｒegressor Probit model，this paper explores changes in features and affecting factors of assortative mating of rural females over time. This paper has come up with several profound findings. First，for rural females，marriage produces very limited effects on their upward social mobility. Second，achieved factors generate more remarkable effects on the hypergamy opportunity compared with birth-ascribed factors. Third，hukou conversion from the rural to urban status，an indication of social mobility，impacts positively on the possibility of hypergamy. Fourth，the influence of the urbanhukou on social mobility has been gradually weakened with changes in socioeconomic meanings of thehukou categories. This paper also demonstrates that the conceptual and practical meanings of social mobility by hypergamy vary under different historical backgrounds.

Mental Health of Peasant Workers:An Intergenerational Perspective

Liang Hong

2014, 38(4):  87-100. 

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Drawing upon data from the 2010 Sample Survey of the Research of Theory and Practice of Peasant Workers’ Rights and Interests Protection conducted in Pearl Rver Delta and Yangtze River Delta，this paper examines patterns and determinants of mental health of peasant workers in the context of intergenerational difference，focusing on the impact of intergenerational difference on mental health of peasant workers by comparing the new generation with the old generation migrant workers. Results suggest that the impact of intergenerational difference on mental health of peasant workers involves major cohort effect in addition to age effect. Factors inside and outside workplace and social psychology have significant effect on the mental health of peasant workers，which are apparently different between the new and the old generation migrant workers. Life course and cohort effect perspectives are fundamentally important to deal with issues related to the new generation migrant workers for their integration into the cities.

Intention for Old-age Support of the Middle-aged Parents of Only Child in Rural China

Ding Zhihong

2014, 38(4):  101-111. 

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Changes are taking place in the intention for old-age support of the middle-aged parents of only child in rural China，who are increasingly seeking social support or support by their own rather than family support with a considerable portion having no intention at all. Health status，economic status and social security largely determine the intention for old-age support of the middle-aged parents of only child. The preference for social support over family support is significantly associated with income，education，occupation and social security，while the preference for support by own over family support is significantly related to family size，income，age，education and health status. It is surprising that gender of the only child，land ownership and region do not have significant effects on their intention for old-age support.