Table of Content

29 September 2014, Volume 38 Issue 5

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Demand Effects of Population Ageing on Service Industry Growth

Chen Weimin，Shi Meicheng

2014, 38(5):  3. 

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This paper explores the effects of population aging on service industry by an empirical analysis using data from 55 countries，1960－2009. Results show that the proportion of service industry increases with population aging，but the effects through consumption path become statistically significant only after the level of population aging surpasses a certain point．We call it“demand effect”．When population aging proceeds to a very high level，the demand effects disappear as employment growth in the service industry is constrained．The demand effects differ between developed and less developed countries because of their different stages of economic development and population aging，especially different status of service industry measured by its proportion of GDP，labor productivity and the degree of marketization．The nature of the demand effects depends on both the level of population aging and the proportion of consumption in GDP．Thus，it is important to accelerate the development of the service industry in China both for positive response to population aging and sustainable economic development．

Family Types and Family Well-being: The Case of Beijing

Song Jian, Zhang Yang, Wang Jingfeng

2014, 38(5):  17. 

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There is much controversy over definition and measurement of family well-being，challenging the government’s effort to construct happy families．Based on the sampling survey data in Beijing in 2014，this paper explores the significant differences in family well-being among various family types and the possible determinants of family well-being．Taking families as the analysis unit，the paper constructs the standardized scores of family well-being and summarizes relevant variables into 7 factors as control variables．The results show that all sample families are moderately happy，and compared to the intact families，those that are sectional have statistically significantly lower scores of family well-being．However，MLRmodel denies the effect of family type on family well-being and admits the roles of member relationship factor，security level factor and spousal relationship factor．

Fertility Intention and Fertility Behaviour in Hubei Province under the New Two-child Policy

Shi Zhilei,Yang Yunyan

2014, 38(5):  27. 

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Adjustment of the family planning policy provides an opportunity to reexamine fertility intentions of the urban and rural families in China．A survey with a large sample size has been completed about the fertility desires of the second child of the couples in which one side has no siblings under the new two-child policy in Hubei province．Survey results show that the proportion definitely wanting a second child is 21. 51%，with the proportion in the rural families being higher than that of the urban families; the fertility desire for the second child is decreasing with the increasing of women’s age，and is also decreasing with the increasing of women’s schooling for urban families while increasing for rural families．A half of the families which are allowed to have a second child state they will give up the opportunity because of economic pressure．Migration reduces the desire for having the second child and weakens son preference．Relative to the structural risk of fertility accumulation，ultra-low fertility trap should arouse more concern．

Overeducation in China: Levels，Trends and Differentials

Liu Jinju

2014, 38(5):  41. 

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Overeducation is widespread across the countries in the world．However，not much is known about the patterns of overeducation in China．This paper examines levels，trends and patterns of overeducation in China over the last 20 years．Overeducation rate in China increased from 7.24% in 1990 to 12.26% in 2000，and further to 28.16% in 2010. The pace was much more rapid in the second decade than in the first decade．Overeducation is substantial across all the population sub-groups，with widening differentials．Overeducation rates in the big cities like Beijing and Shanghai are much higher than elsewhere in China．China’s rapidly increasing overeducation is largely a result of the implementation of college expansion policy started in the late 1990s．

Spatial Patterns of Population Mobility and Determinants of Inter-provincial Migration in China

Zhang Yaojun, Cen Qiao

2014, 38(5):  54. 

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Based on the data of 2000 and 2010 population censuses in China，this paper investigates the spatial patterns of Chinese population mobility using spatial analysis methods．Visualized analysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis are conducted for intra- and inter-provincial population in-migration respectively at province，city and county levels．Results show that there is a significant trend of geographical concentration for inter-provincial migration from eastern coastal region to middle and western regions in China．Hotspots analysis verifies three nationwide agglomeration centers: Pearl River Delta，Yangtze River Delta and Beijing- Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Area．On these bases，this paper quantitatively identifies city attractiveness factors that respectively have impacts on intra－ and inter－provincial population in-migration at the city level，using ordinary multivariate regression and spatial regression models．Development of tertiary industry and local wage level both affect the choice of migration destinations for intra- provincial and inter- provincial floating population; local social public resources have significant impact on intra- provincial migration; high employment rate and high urbanization rate are“pulling”factors for inter-provincial migration．Policy implications are discussed．

Health Status，Health Needs and Provision of Health Services among the Middle-aged and Elderly People

Wen Yong, Zong Zhanhong, Shu Xingyu, Zhou Jianfang, Sun Xiaoming, Ru Xiaomei

2014, 38(5):  72. 

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This paper analyzes the health status，health needs and provision of health services among the middle-aged and elderly people from 12 counties of 5 provinces in mid-western China based on the data from a survey“Family Health Care Program”，an Sino-Japanese technical cooperation project undertaken by National Health and Family Planning Commission．Results show that health status was not well and different significantly across the provinces，and there are great health needs．The main health providers are health and family planning agencies，and health status are significantly correlated with health services including health education，health check and health consultation．The results have important policy implications which are discussed at the end of the paper．

The Effect of Population Ageing on Income Inequality

Lan Jiajun, Wei Xiahai, Wu Chaolin

2014, 38(5):  87. 

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Population aging and income inequality are two prominent phenomena across the world．Is aging one of the most important factors influencing income inequality? This paper presents empirical evidence on the effect of population aging on income inequality，using a panel dataset from 76 countries and regions from 1970 and 2011. The empirical results show that population aging does increase income inequality significantly．Moreover，this impact is mainly from top-aging rather than bottom－aging．Population aging also has a greater impact on income inequality in those countries having higher income levels and higher levels of aging．Impact of population aging on income inequality varies with the stages of economic development．The results are robust when several control variables are added in the model as well as potential endogenous problems and abnormal sample points are considered．

On Long-term Balanced Development of National Defense

Ding Xuezhou

2014, 38(5):  107. 

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This article explores population long-term balanced development for national defense according to the strategic goals set at the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China．Three major issues are discussed．Firstly，the concept and connotation of the long-term equilibrium development of national defense population are defined，in which population long -term equilibrium is equal to population“long-term safety”including quality balance，quantity balance and population structure equilibrium．And“quantity equilibrium”needs to be considered in both absolute and relative terms．Secondly，the“non-equilibrium”situation of national defense population is examined from the perspective of quality and quantity．Thirdly，policy suggestions in promoting the national defense population equilibrium are proposed with regard to population regulation，human resource development and social security．