Table of Content

29 July 2015, Volume 39 Issue 4

Previous Issue    Next Issue

Dynamic Evolution of Old-age Mortality in China: A Hierarchical Modeling Analysis

Duan Baige,Shi Lei

2015, 39(4):  3. 

Asbtract ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Longevity risk calculation is central to both public pension plans and life insurance companies. The essential work in quantifying longevity risk is to model the dynamics of mortality rates. Based on the goodness-of-fit with respect to the available mortality rates at various ages, the dynamic mortality rate models mainly deal with two issues, namely, age extrapolation and trend prediction. In addressing the gaps in the literature, this paper integrates the extreme modeling method for oldest-old mortality rate and the hierarchical modeling technique, and proposes a dynamic mortality rate modeling approach. The paper further demonstrates the dynamic evolutions of old-age and oldest-old mortality rates by place of residence and gender from 2000 to 2010 in China, with better measurement of the tail risks of the life span distribution, and thus improves the quantitative method on China's longevity risk research.

Sibship Size, Educational Resources, and Children’s Academic Achievement in the Context of China’s Low Fertility

ZhangYueyun,Xie Yu

2015, 39(4):  19. 

Asbtract ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The inverse association between sibship size and education is well established in social research. The resource dilution model posits that under the assumption of finite education resources, additional children could dilute the quantity of educational resources any one child would receive, and thus exert negative impacts on children’s educational outcomes. In China, relevant researches are all based upon adult samples. As most of adults have ended their educational career, research with adult samples cannot examine the role that various educational resources play in explaining the negative link between sibship size and educational outcomes. In this paper, based on a children sample from 2010 China Family Panel Studies, we divide educational resources that might be influential for children’s education into three types: financial investment resources, parental involvement resources, and family environment resources. Our results reconfirm that children with bigger sibship sizes are more disadvantaged both in obtaining all these educational resources and in academic achievement. Moreover, we find these educational resources could help explain substantively the negative effect of sibship size on academic achievement, whereas the three types of educational resources contribute differently to explaining the effect of sibship size on word verbal skills and the effect of sibship size on math skills.

Sex Ratio at Birth in China: Changes and Implications

Shi Yaming,LiuShuang

2015, 39(4):  35. 

Asbtract ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

This paper uses the data from the Sixth Population Census at national, provincial, prefecture and capital city levels to investigate China’s high SRB, the polarization of which is now spreading, and to discuss the latest changes of SRB in recent years. In regard to the abnormal SRB among first births, the paper analyzes the converging trend between urban and rural areas, among different regions, and from the perspective of women with different educational levels and different cohorts. It postulates that sex preference of fertility behavior at the first birth indicates that China's fertility transition has begun to enter a new historical stage and the pattern of fertility is largely motivated by social factors other than the policy ones. This paper further analyzes the distribution of gender composition for surviving children of women between 15-64 years old. The results show that the distribution is significantly and increasingly deviated from the normal one. Sex selection of fertility behavior increases the possibility of giving birth to a boy for couples over 1990 to 2010. China’s “son preference” becomes increasingly strong.

The Choice of Floating Migrants in China: Why Megacities are Always Preferred? A Cost-Benefit Analysis

Tong Yufen,Wang Yingying

2015, 39(4):  49. 

Asbtract ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

This paper examines the destination choice of migrants from a cost-benefit perspective, using binary logit models to explain why the megacities are so popular to be their destination. The results show that the net revenue, particularly different wage levels the floating individuals expect has great impact on their destination choices, which validates an important fact that high-wage income or that the huge wage gap between different regions is an important reason why migrants flowing into megacities. The total expenditure of floating migrants in Beijing, Shanghai and Guangzhou does not inhibit their flowing into these large cities. Implications of the results are that rather than taking measures to raise the cost of living in the cities to limit the floating population, it is better to make efforts in developing neighboring regions to attract more enterprises, create more jobs, and improve public services, thus redirecting the migrants in choosing their destination.

Estimating the Value of Migration: Floating Population’s Contributions to Urban Revenue

Zhang Li

2015, 39(4):  57. 

Asbtract ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

This study introduces a framework for estimating direct revenue provided to local coffers by so-called floating population, a synonym of migrants in the Chinese context. It proposes that the financial contribution made by floating population can be decomposed into three aspects of legally mandated payments: income tax or business tax, consumption-related tax, and obligation payment for local social security funds. Our analysis demonstrates that fiscal contribution based on floating population’s labor and consumption is not so much as their contribution caused by the loss of social security entitlements. We also find that the contribution made by floating population cannot cover the expenditure need that would arise if such population were granted an access to local public goods.

Heterogeneous Endowments, Integrated Preferences and the Housing Stability of Rural Migrants Workers

Wang Chunrui,Yang Jianlan,Liu Jiaqiang

2015, 39(4):  66. 

Asbtract ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

The urban living status of rural migrant workers reflects their behavior preference determined by their own, family and environmental endowment. Restricted by different endowments, the ways of living are diversified often coupled with non-stability status. Using large scale survey data, the article performs empirical analysis on urban migrant workers’ living status by the Ordered - Logit regression model. Results show that the rural workers’ living preferences are influenced by their occupation and income capability, the shelter - farmland constraint and the degree of urban social integration. Skilled employment and high income levels can significantly reduce the probability of amphibious flow of rural workers, and thus enhance the stability of their urban living. Migrating with families and having long-term transferred arable land can also significantly facilitate the stability of urban living. Effective measures need to be taken to enhance the ability of rural workers to settle in the cities, promoting rural workers’ citizenship by changing the " " type of rural-urban migration to the " " type of urban settlement.

Changing Spatial Pattern of Population of Xinjiang's Major Ethnic Groups, 1982-2010

Li Song,Zhang Lingyun,Liu Yang,Qi Qungao

2015, 39(4):  78. 

Asbtract ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Using Arcgis10.0 and Moran’s I index method, this paper analyzes changing spatial patterns of population of Xinjiang’s major ethnic groups. The Moran's I index of Xinjiang's every main ethnic group is greater than 0, indicating different aggregation and dispersion of population distribution of Xinjiang’s main ethnic groups. With Tianshan Mountain as the boundary, there is obvious differentiation between the Han and the Uygur ethnic group in southern and northern Xinjiang. In northern Xinjiang, the concentration degree of the Han population is higher, while that of the Uygur ethnic group is higher in southern Xinjiang. No obvious changes were observed of the regional distribution pattern of the Han population and Uygur, Kazak and Mongolian ethnic groups, but considerable change occurred to the regional distribution pattern of the Hui ethnic group over 1982-2010. Policy implications of the above results are discussed at the end of the paper.

Ageing, Health Expenditure and Economic Growth: Evidence based on the Chinese Provincial Panel Data

He Lingxiao,Nan Yongqing,Zhang Zhonggen

2015, 39(4):  87. 

Asbtract ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

 Based on the panel data of China's 31 provinces from 1997-2013, this paper incorporates various static and dynamic panel data models to investigate the relationship between ageing, health expenditure and economic growth. The results show that both government and household health expenditure have significant positive effect on economic growth, and this positive effect is strengthened by the increasing ageing. The enhanced effect of ageing on the positive economic effect of health expenditure is very robust. Further group estimation and robustness tests show that the positive economic effect of government (household) health expenditure increases with time, and decreases from east to central and to west China. The expansion of health expenditure is of crucial importance to actively coping with population ageing and to realizing the sustained and stable economic growth.

Factors Affecting the Participation of Endowment Insurance of Urban-to-urban Migrants in China

Shi Renbing,Chen Ning

2015, 39(4):  102. 

Asbtract ( )  

Related Articles | Metrics

Based on the dynamic monitoring data of floating population from National Health and Family Planning Commission in 2013, this study conducts binary logistic regression to analyze the influencing factors for urban-to-urban migrant population on the endowment insurance participation. The results show that personal characteristics, such as gender, age and education, are closely related to the enrollment. Males and people aged from 25 to 34 and with higher education are more likely to participate. Employer type, income and housing situation are most important economic and social factors that influence the endowment insurance participation of the floating population. Migrants working in foreign invested enterprises are most likely to participate. Those with high income or possessing their own houses are also more likely to enroll. Types of destination, duration and distance also have significant impact on the participation behavior. The floating population in central China has lower rate of enrollment than those in east and west China. The cross-county migrants are more willing to attend than the cross-city and cross-province ones. The longer the migrants stay, the higher the probability of participation is.