Table of Content

29 September 2015, Volume 39 Issue 5

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Estimating the Level and Duration of Disability of the Elderly in China: Based on the Pooled Data from Multiple Data Sources

Zhang Wenjuan,Wei Meng

2015, 39(5):  3-14. 

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The scale and distribution of the disabled elders are important indicators for estimating demands of the elderly for long-term care services. In addressing the estimation biases caused by inadequate sample size in current elderly surveys, this study pools the survey data of CLHLS, SSAPUR and CHRLS in 2010～2011 weighted by the population structure of the sixth population census, and estimates the disability proportion and the healthy life expectation of the elderly. Results show that the disability rate of the Chinese elderly in 2010 stood at 11.2%, and the average living time duration with ADL Disability was 2.53 years; rural and female elderly were more likely to suffer from moderate and severe ADL disability than their urban and female counterparts. In addition, the gender difference in the proportion of the healthy life expectation among total life expectation rises as age grows. Conclusively, this study suggests that rural and female elderly are the dominant population groups receiving long-term care services.

Research and Innovation in the Population Science of China in the Era of Big Data

Wang Guangzhou

2015, 39(5):  15-26. 

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Based on the review of the population big data of China, this paper analyzes current situation and problems of different population data sources. Despite the fact that population big data in China has very good historical accumulation, key population information has not been shared between different big data systems, and there are difficulties and challenges for deep data mining. During the big data construction and development, the problems that need to be dealt with are data structure standardization, data updating, sharing, privacy safety, real time data cleaning and data archiving. Since data structure is closely related to data analysis models, many demographic and statistical indicators will be reconstructed in future under the explorations of big data. This paper concludes with a discussion of the problems of constructing dynamic monitoring and early warning modules, indepth data mining framework as well as some major research areas.

The Intrinsic-Extrinsic Decomposition of the Adult Life Expectancy of China: An Application of the Vitality Model

Li Ting

2015, 39(5):  27-36. 

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In this work, we utilize the vitality model to fit the agespecific mortality data of Chinese adult (35+), and decompose the adult life expectancy into the intrinsic life expectancy and the lost life expectancy due to extrinsic mortality. By applying the method to the Sixth Population Census data, we find that the gender difference in the Chinese adult life expectancy primarily stemmed from their difference in the lost life expectancy due to extrinsic mortality, while the difference between the urban and rural residents mainly reflected in their intrinsic life expectancies which were determined by the chronic aging process. The comparison with Japan further reveals that the disparity in the intrinsic life expectancy contributed mostly to the gap of these two countries in the adult life expectancy. Furthermore, the longitudinal comparison between the Fifth and the Sixth Census data suggests that the reduction of extrinsic mortality was the major force that enhanced the male life expectancy in the past ten years, while the decline of both intrinsic and extrinsic mortality characterized the change of the female life expectancy in the same period. According to the experience of countries with advanced life expectancy, the growth of the life expectancy in China will be dominated by the intrinsic increase.

The Application of Lee Carter Model to the Extension of Model Life Tables: The Case of China Regional Model Life Tables

Huang Kuangshi

2015, 39(5):  37-48. 

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The classic LeeCarter model decomposes the change of mortality into three parts: the age-specific average mortality rate, the age-specific change of mortality rate, and the grand tempo change of mortality rate. Such decomposition not only considers the different baselines of mortality for various populations, but also specifies the two types of mortality changes. Because we can obtain different age-specific mortality levels by adjusting either the age-specific change rate or the grand tempo change rate, the Lee Carter model can be used to extend the model life table. However, the classic Lee Carter model would amplify the gender gap of life expectancy and also result in unreasonable mortality ratios among different ages in the long-term mortality forecast. This study modifies the classic Lee Carter model with coherent model and rotation model to overcome its deficiencies in the long-term mortality forecast. The modified Lee Carter model can be used to both project the age-specific mortality rate at a high level of life expectancy and extend the model life table. We take China regional model life table as an example to show the application of the model life table extension with the modified Lee Carter model.

An Estimation of Fertility Level in China, 2000～2010

Zhao Menghan

2015, 39(5):  49-58. 

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Recent studeis on the fertility level in China are of controversy as various mehods and data sources have led to inconsistent results. This paper applies Preston and Coale’s (1982) variable-r method to assess the fertility level in China between 2000 and 2010. This method has been applied in various kinds of research and proved efficacious. By adopting relative age distribution data from China’s 2000 and 2010 censuses as well as fertility pattern from annual sampling surveys published by National Bureau of Statistics of China, the variable-r method under different scenarios of completeness of coverage suggests that Chinese fertility during 2000 and 2010 is around 1.60. This paper also emphasizes the imporantce of examing the underlying assumptions of this method before applying it in emprical research.

Rural and Urban Population Separation and Integration in China

Luo Chun,Chen Ying

2015, 39(5):  59-71. 

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Separation and integration of rural migrants with urban citizens in China is determined not only by the household registration system, but also by the development stage of non-agricultural industry and the conditions of rural people when they achieved the citizenship status. Having exceeded 50 percent urban in China, urban and rural populations could either keep separation, falling into the Latin America Trap, or turn to integration, leading to unified and balanced urban and rural development. In achieving integrated development between rural and urban populations, in addition to demolishing dual segmentation resulting from the household registration system, it is necessary to break off the stagnation in social class mobility due to rural and city separation, and to promote urbanization driven by non-agriculturalization, providing more development opportunity with capacity building for rural mobile population.

Path of China’s New-Type Urbanization

Sun Zhongwei

2015, 39(5):  72-86. 

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Migrant workers’ intention of settling in cities plays a very important role in the process of promoting the new-type urbanization.This paper examines settlement intention of migrant workers in cities using data from two surveys on migrant workers in 2012 and 2013. Results show that migrant workers are more likely to settle down in big and local cities, especially capital cities of local provinces. Thus the newtype of urbanization with “big city priority” would be an option to which the migrant workers could be responsive and supportive. However, both the numers and development quality of the big cities in China are not adequate. The Chinese government should give priority to develop big cities or metropolitan regions in the process of promoting the new-type urbanization, which not only could attract a large number of floating rural population,but also promote the development of small and medium-sized cities.

Regional Patterns and National Differences of Population Distribution in China's Border Region

You Zhen,Feng Zhiming,Lei Yaling,Yang Yanzhao,Li Fangzhou

2015, 39(5):  87-99. 

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This article examines national differences and tendencies of population distribution in China’s border regions using LandScan population density data and GIS spatial analysis and mathematical statistics. The broad pattern is that the southern border region is densely populated while the northern sparsely inhabited. Population density in the domestic region is higher than in the foreign region on the northeast and northwest border, while it is in the opposite on the southwest border. Population density is universally lower in the foreign regions than in the domestic regions. Population decline is a major characteristic of population change on the Chinese border, with major population reductions occurred in the domestic regions on the northeast and northwest borders and in the foreign regions on the ChinaNorth Korea border and the southwest border.

Reduction of Labor Income Share in GDP

Yang Xin

2015, 39(5):  100-112. 

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China’s labor income as a share of GDP has decreased since 1990s, invoking substantial discussion and research. This study explores the influence of institutional factors on this reduction, particularly the influence of household registration management system. The author demonstrates theoretically why the labor income share could decline with the increasing employment proportion of transferred labor force in non-agricultural sectors. The author constructs an empirical analytical model incorporating factors representing economic development, non-state-owned economy, rural labor force transfer, economic globalization, capital deepening and technological progress. The results show that there is a significant negative impact of transferred rural labor force on change of the total labor income share. One possible explanation is that income of transferred rural labor force is lower than the normal market level in China as a result of institutional factors. Therefore, the transferred rural labor force plays a negative role in the decline of labor income share, which also suggests that impacts of other factors in the previous studies may be exaggerated.