Population Research

China's Universal Two－Child Policy: Grounds，Effects and Strategies

Liu Jiaqiang,Tang Daisheng

2015, 39(6): 3.

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The 13th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for China, in which cmacro population problem is the core element. Population aging and low fertility leading to reduction in labor supply would have a fundamental influence on the long term balanced development of China's population，implying that China's population policy must be adjusted．This paper argues that birth policy adjustment accords with the original intention of the population policy design and development direction．A universal two－child policy is a logical result of the adjustment of China's current fertility policy，which is believed to bring about positive effects on the future demographic and economic development，particularly in sustaining long term balanced development of China's population，eliminating marriage squeeze，lengthening demographic dividend and delaying aging process．China needs to develop and improve support and governance system for fully implementing the universal two －child policy．

A Theory of Rural－Urban Migration: Revising the Todaro Model

Zhong Shuiying, Li Chunxiang

2015, 39(6): 13-21.

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The traditional migration theory has been unable to explain the phenomenon of“flowing without transferring”during the process of Chinese rural－urban population migration． Based on the Todaro modelwith the perspective of rural population transfer，this paper constructs a two－stage migration model by introducing institutional factors into the model，while clarifying the connotation and necessity of rural population transfer and analyzing the relationship between rural population transfer and citizenization and urbanization．In the short term，individual migration decision is made with the maximization of expected net income;in the long term，family migration decision is made with the maximization of expected net family income including the net institutional benefits． Our model suggests that rural land system is the core factor affecting rural population transfer． Successful transfer of the rural population requires that rural land be entitled more functions，especially the property function，and further reform of rural land system，especially the transfer
system．

China’s Recent Total Fertility Rate: New Evidence from the Household Registration Statistics

Zhai Zhenwu, Chen Jiaju, Li Long

2015, 39(6): 22-34.

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How low is China’s recent total fertility rate? Data quality is the key to the answer． Population at ages 5 －7 from the 2015 household registration statistics is currently the latest available data which are believed to best represent the actual numbers of the 3 cohorts． Thus，estimates are highly reliable of China’s total fertility rates for 2008 to 2010 based on these data． The main conclusion is that China’s total fertility rates in 2008 － 2010 stood roughly at 1. 63 －1. 66. However，there is inevitable under －registration of the youngest age groups in the household registration data，fertility estimates provided in this paper are the lower limit of China’s actual fertility level． Thus，China’s total fertility rate in 2008，2009 and 2010 must be higher than 1．66，1．66 and 1. 63 respectively.

China’s Fertility Estimation: A Generalized Stable Population Approach

Chen Wei

2015, 39(6): 35-43.

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Two fertility estimation approaches based on the generalized stable population model using census age distributions are used in this paper to assess Chinese fertility levels in the three inter － censual periods over 1982 － 2010. The integrated approach has obtained estimates of birth rate and number of births that are consistent for the 1982 － 1990 and 2000 － 2010 inter － censual periods with，but are markedly lower for the 1990 － 2000 period than the published estimates by National Bureau of Statistics of China． The corresponding estimates of the three inter － censual total fertility are 2. 65，1. 68 and 1. 56 respectively. The variable r method results in estimates of the three inter － censual total fertility being 2. 60，1. 61 and 1. 68 respectively.Thus China’s overall fertility level in the 2000s is around 1. 6.

Has China Really Fallen into Fertility Crisis?

Yang Juhua

2015, 39(6): 44-61.

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It has been widely hold that China has encountered demographic crises，and abolishing fertility policy or a policy encouraging childbearing should be adopted． However，has China really fallen into fertility crisis? This paper attempts to provide preliminary thoughts on this issue by situating China in longer temporal and broader spatial contexts． Drawing on the conceptual framework of proximate and distal determinants of fertility，it compares marriage and fertility patterns among the Chinese，Korean，Japanese and American，and assesses the intertwined relationship between marriage and fertility，as well as economic structure，social environment and cultural regulations． Results indicate that China is still characterized by universal and early marriage and childbearing，and distal factors have created the sense of anxiety of marriage and fertility，driving individuals to proceed to childbearing in a faster pace． It remains too early to conclude that China has encountered fertility crisis．

Cohort Differences of Smoking Pattern in Chinese Population and Its Social Determinants

Ma Yan

2015, 39(6): 62-73.

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Drawing upon data from Global Adult Tobacco Survey － 2010 China，this paper reconstructs the smoking history of different birth cohorts by using life table techniques to adjust the impact of mortality onsmoking prevalence． Smoking prevalence of Chinese male population was increasing until the late 1990s when it began to decline after arriving its historical peak，and there are marked cohort differences in smoking pattern． Smoking prevalence，the peak prevalence and smoking duration of older birth cohorts are higher than those of the younger cohorts，and all of these indicators become increasingly lower among the increasingly younger cohorts． Changing social determinants of smoking are the main causes of cohort differences in smoking． Thus smoking control strategies need to take into account population change dynamics and cohort differences of smoking pattern，adapting different strategies for different cohorts．

Spatial Aggregation and Spatial-Temporal Pattern of Provincial Divorce Rate in China

Su Liyun, Liu Yang, Peng Xiangwu

2015, 39(6): 74-84.

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The rising divorce rate has profound social and historical background in China，highlighting the changes in the values of people at this stage．To reveal the pattern of spatial-temporal evolution of Chinese divorce rate，this paper conducts a statistical analysis of regional and spatial-temporal characteristics of the changes in divorce rate at the provincial level． The divorce rate of each province in China has a non-random distribution in space，showing a significant positive spatial aggregation in China’s provinces with highhigh or low-low clustering characteristic． Looking at the characteristics of local aggregation in different provinces，the high-high clustering occurs mainly in provinces including Heilongjiang，Liaoning and Jilin，while the low-low pattern mainly in Hainan，Henan，Guangdong，Guangxi，Jiangxi，Anhui，Shandong and other south-east provinces．

The Influence of the New Fertility Policy on Size and Structure of Maternity in Obstetric and Gynecologic Hospitals

Kang Chuyun, Gao Yanqiu, Song Li, Pang Ruyan, Wang Yan

2015, 39(6): 85-93.

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Extracted information from medical records of 23839 cases from 12 obstetric and gynecologic hospitals or MCH hospitals are collected，with 10821 cases delivered in November and December in 2012 representing for those before the new fertility policy and 13018 delivered in November and December in 2014 representing for those after the new fertility policy respectively．The size and structure of the two samples of women are compared．The results show that the number of births increased by 20% during November and December in 2014 than in 2012，with a universal increase in hospitals at provincial and prefectural levels．The amount of the second births increased by 62%．The proportion of women who gave birth at 35-year-old or over increased from 6． 4% to 8． 8%，and the proportion of women with a cesarean section history increased from 9.8% to 15．0%． Hospitals at provincial and prefectural levels may need to make or adjust strategies to prepare for the fertility release under the new fertility policy．

Wage Differentials between Formal and Informal Employment of Migrant Workers: Based on Propensity Score Analysis

Yang Fan

2015, 39(6): 94-104.

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Using multiple propensity score methods，including propensity score geedy matching，propensity score optimal matching，propensity score weighting and matching estimator，this paper analyzes wage differentials between formal and informal employment of migrant workers． The results show that the two groups of migrant workers differ significantlly in education，work experience and other personal chracteristics．Resulting from these selection biases，the t test and the OLS regression would overestimate the average treatment effect of formal employment on wage． After controlling the selection biases，there are statistically significant wage differentials between the two groups，which confirms the market segmentation between formal and informal employment and the discrimination against informal employmee in the labor market of floating population．

A Summary of the 2015 Annual Meeting of China Population Association

Lu Jiehua, Zhang Fang, Tang Cheng

2015, 39(6): 105-110.

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