Table of Content

29 January 2016, Volume 40 Issue 1

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On the Two-Child Policy in China

Wang Peian

2016, 40(1):  3-7. 

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At the start of 2016，CPC Central Committee and State Council issued a decision on imple- menting a comprehensive two-child policy，reforming and improving the management of family planning services．This paper reviews theoretical and practical perspectives of the decision and discusses the what and the why of the two-child policy．In carrying out and implementing the decision，the major tasks involve organizing and implementing the two-child policy in accordance with the law，reforming maternity services management system，strengthening maternal and child health and family planning services，improving family planning rewards support system，strengthening organizational leadership，strengthening grass-roots work，and improving childbearing security．Family planning policy is a long- term basic national policy in China; however，China’ s future family planning work needs to be reorient- ed to achieving demographically an appropriate scale，high-quality，structure optimization，and rational distribution，and to forming a multi-governing structure of the government，society and the citizens．

Trends in Life Disparity in China since the 1950s: An International Comparison

Zhang Zhen

2016, 40(1):  8-21. 

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As life expectancy has risen spectacularly since the mid-nineteenth century，and at present，is high in many countries，increasing attention has been drawn to life disparity-how much lifespans differ among individuals．Life disparity is important because it measures uncertainty in the timing of death．Reducing this uncertainty increases the value of both private and public investments in education and training，and can factor into life course decisions such as retirement planning and the adoption of healthy behavior．The past six decades have witnessed great improvements in life expectancy in China， particularly since the reform and opening up in the late 1970s．Previous studies have well documented the levels，patterns and regional variations of mortality in China．But so far no study has focused on life disparity．This paper aims to fill in this gap with in-depth analysis of the trends in life disparity of China under comprehensive international comparison．We find that the improvement of life disparity that has been made so far in China can partially be attributed to the China-characteristic healthcare system and health-related public policies．

An Assessment of Abnormal Deaths during the Great Leap Forward Using a Modified Lee-Carter Model

Mi Hong, Jia Ning

2016, 40(1):  22-37. 

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There is a lack of official report by the Chinese government regarding the exact number of abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward．Using a modified Lee-Carter mortality prediction model，this study conducts reverse prediction based on China’s official age-specific mortality data to recon- struct and calculate the single-year-age mortality rate and the normal deaths assuming that there was no great famine．Then we estimate the abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward occurring between 1958 and 1961．If there had been no famine，there would have been 43. 39 to 43. 85 million normal deaths．With famine，abnormal deaths are estimated to be between 16. 24 and 23. 37 million． Our results suggest that the medium estimation of the abnormal deaths during the Great Leap Forward stands at no more than 19. 8 million．

Forecasting China’s Labor Supply and Demand and the Unemployment Structure in the 13th Five-Year-Plan Period

Zhang Juwei, Cai Yifei

2016, 40(1):  38-56. 

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The changes in labor supply and demand are important factors affecting economic growth．The purpose of this paper is to predict and analyze the trends in China’s labor supply and demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan period and the longer period in the future．The scale and structure of the annual new entrants of labor force are predicted by accounting the numbers who are leaving from various stages of education，while trends of labor demand are predicted according to employment elasticity from the experience of industrialization of developed countries．The results show that，during the 13th Five-Year Plan period，the scale of the new added labor would decrease slightly，with an aver- age annual increment of around 15. 68 million．At the same time，labor demand would increase steadily，with annually 15. 42 million employment opportunities．Labor supply and demand would be roughly balanced; however，there would be increasing structural contradictions of the labor market．Based on the analysis of labor supply and demand，we provide an estimation of the unemployment scale of the 40’s and 50’s generations，migrant workers and college graduates，and discuss policy suggestions on promoting employment of college graduates．

From Demographic Transition to Population Balance

Guo Zhenwei, Wang Ying

2016, 40(1):  57-68. 

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China experienced an early arrival of aged society around the turn of the century due to its rapid demographic transition．In order to keep the equilibrium development of population，it is essential to address the dilemma of the large population size and the unbalanced population structure under certain resource，technology and institution conditions．If the government implements the universal two- child policy in time，and further adjusts the population and related socio-economic policies to increase TFR to about 1. 8 and then gradually make it return to the replacement level，a stable population will be approximately achieved in the next 30 or 40 years．The age structure，together with the urban and rural composition will both reach a stable level．The proportion of population aged 60 or over will reach one- third，which is almost the average level of developed countries as a whole but still lower than that of Germany and Japan，and the urbanization rate will reach 75 percent．At that time，the human capital accumulation will rank forefront among the world，the modernization will be realized，and the balance among the factors of population itself and the development of economy，society，resources and envi- ronment is expected to be maintained．

Trends in the Second Birth Interval in China since 1970

Zhang Cuiling, Liu Hongyan, Wang Xiaofeng

2016, 40(1):  69-86. 

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This study examines the trends in and the impact of birth spacing policy on the second birth interval in China since 1970s using the population monitoring data in 121 Chinese counties．The birth spacing policy plays a significant role in regulating people’ s fertility behaviors thus slowing down population growth in China．Specifically，changes in second birth intervals have gone through three stages，a long-term stability before 1990s，an increase from 1990 to 2005 and a decline since 2006，implying a dynamic relationship with the birth interval regulation．Conditions for continuing the current birth spacing policy aiming at later birth，longer interval and less children no longer exist．Thus，the focus on birth spacing needs to be switched from a policy orientation to a health orientation．

Fertility Intention for the Second Child under the Selective and Universal Two-Child Policies: Comparisons and Implications

Zhang Xiaoqing,Huang Caihong,Zhang Qiang,Chen Shuangshuang,Fan Qipeng

2016, 40(1):  87-97. 

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Fertility intention is the preponed variable affecting the actual fertility level，providing important information for predicting fertility level．A survey with a large sample size is conducted to investigate the fertility desires for wanting the second child of the couples under the selective and universal two-child policies in Shandong Province．The results show that the fertility desires and the ideal number of children in the two types of families are basically the same，and factors including subjective considerations，regional disparity，residential properties，education level，and the sex of the first child also have similar effects on the fertility desires of the two types of families．However，salient gaps exist in fertility planning，subjective considerations for not wanting to have the second child，and zodiac preference between the two types of families．Under a binary logistic regression model，sex of the first child，age， region，and subjective considerations show significant impact on fertility desires for wanting the second child in the two types of families．Furthermore，couples under the universal two-child policy primarily consider the risk of losing the only child as the intention for wanting the second one，while couples un- der the selective two-child policy care more about pension and psychological needs which are stated to be the main reasons of wanting the second child．

Demands and Determinants of Community Home-based Care Services for Urban Elderly: Based on the 2010 National Elderly Survey in China

Wang Qiong

2016, 40(1):  98-112. 

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Using the data of the urban elderly collected from The Tracking Survey of the Aged Popula- tion in Urban/Rural China conducted in 2010，this paper aims to study the demands of the community home-based care services for the aged and its influencing factors，and to explore the reasons from the demand aspect why the development of the elderly care industry is trapped．The research shows that the older people have high demands of home-based care services，while few of their demands have been satisfied．The traditional culture values of being thrifty and caring more about children do suppress the elders’demands．However，it is an ambiguous statement that ageing before getting rich restricts the development of the elderly care industries，since the reality of ageing before getting rich does not have significant negative effects in some industry subdivisions．Furthermore，the health condition is a hard constraint on the medical care and rehabilitation nursing demands．At the same time，sons and daughters play different roles in the provision of the elderly care．