Table of Content

29 March 2016, Volume 40 Issue 2

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China’ s Optimum Population: An Environmental Perspective

Tong Yufen, Wang Jingwen,Liang Zhao

2016, 40(2):  3-11. 

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The optimum population under the constraint of resources and environment，by which both the con- straints of resources and the environment are met and a certain standard of living and development goals are achieved，is an important basis for China’ s future population policy considerations．Based on the concept of optimum population and the analysis of its internal mechanism under the constraint of resources and environment，12 indexes are selected from the fields of natural resources，environmental and socioeconomic development．Using the possibility- satisfiability model，we separately estimate the optimum scale of China’ s population under a single factor and different combinations of indexes in both 2030 and 2050 as the target point time．The results show that the lowest value of China’ s optimum population under the constraints of major resources and environment is around 1157-1322 million in 2030 and 1465-1626 million in 2050，while the desired optimum population of China would be 986-1311 million in 2030 and 1188-1389 million in 2050． Water resource is always the most important factor in restricting China’ s population growth in the future．The relationship between population，resources and environment would be more strained by 2030，and then would tend to improve after 2050．

Regional Population Attraction at Province Level: Impacts on and Implications for the Main Functional Zones Planning

Zhang Yaojun, Wu Xiwei, Zhang Minmin

2016, 40(2):  12-22. 

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Since China’ s reform and opening up，connections between the regions in China are getting increasingly closer，with more and more frequent population migration．The reason why people migrate from one region to another is because of the attraction of the inflow area．This paper uses the 6th national population census data and the attractiveness measurement indicator RIA to calculate the attraction index for China’ s 31 provinces．The result shows that the east coastal zone，which represented by Guangdong，Zhejiang，Shanghai， Jiangsu and Beijing，has the largest attraction for migrants．On the other hand，the far west region，defined as restricted development region，which represented by Gansu，Qinghai，Ningxia and Tibet，has the least attrac- tion for migrants．Policy implications are discussed regarding industrial upgrading，population control，environ- mental protection，and targeted poverty alleviation．

Dynamics of Household Transition and Its Environmental Loads

Fu Chonghui

2016, 40(2):  23-37. 

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The changes of household structure have important impact on the resources and environment under the effect of household size．This article constructs and testes the empirical model of China’ s household transition．China’ s household transition has apparent regional characteristics．The breakpoints of household transition in developed regions are 1975 and 2003，and their household transition is now being in the final phase．However，the first breakpoint of household transition in developing regions is 1981，and the second breakpoint has not yet occurred．This analysis shows that the environmental effect of the household size changes is greater than the effect of population transition，an effect just second to consumption level．It is there- fore necessary and reasonable to analyze the relationship between population and environment with a household structure transition perspective，and pay more attention to the negative impacts of household transition．The developing regions could learn the experiences from the developed regions in order to avoid the similar environmental crisis．

Patterns of Migrant Identity: A Latent Class Analysis

Hou Yajie, Yao Hong

2016, 40(2):  38-49. 

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This study attempts to provide an insight of migrant identity using the data of 2012 Migrant Dynamics Monitoring Survey in China．The Latent Class Analysis is adopted to explore the patterns of mi- grant identity．Demographical differences among different identity patterns are also examined．The results identify three patterns of migrants’identity: rejected identity，congruent identity and ambivalent identity．No significant identity difference is found between urban-urban and rural-urban migrants．Part of the migrants has ambivalent feelings about their identity．The new generation of migrants，especially the new generation of rural-urban migrants tends to reject their citizenship of the inflow cities．The distance of migration and the type of settled city are significant factors affecting pattern of migrants’identity．The prolonged duration of residence tends to improve migrant’ s degree of self-identity．Interacting and communicating with local resi- dents are important in facilitating migrant’ s self-identity．Finally，living with family enhances migrant’ s self-identity．

Selectivity，Tradition or Acculturation: The Effect of Migration on Son Preference of Rural Reproductive Women

Yang Fan, Tao Tao, Du Min

2016, 40(2):  50-62. 

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The large-scale population migration is changing the child-bearing concepts of rural women，and weakening the traditional son preference for children． This paper reviews relevant theories about the effect of migration on the child-bearing concepts，analyzes the survey data and compares the difference of son preference among rural reproductive women who never migrated and those who had migration experiences when controlling for the selection bias of migration．This paper further examines the effect of their experiences of migration with or without husband on son preference．Results indicate that there is a significant difference of son preference between rural women who don’ t have migration experience and those who have．On one hand，this difference is partly a result of the selectivity of migration; on the other hand，it is because migration modernizes the child-bearing concepts of rural women and weakens their son preference．However，the traditional culture of the outflow regions still influences the gender preference of rural women through families and communities．

Immigrants，Hukou System and Criminal Offense

Wang Tongyi

2016, 40(2):  63-74. 

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Using panel data from 1997 to 2013 of China’ s 30 provinces，this paper investigates the causal relationship between proportion of immigrants and crime rate with the PMG model，and examines the role of the hukou system in this relationship．Results show that increase in the proportion of immigrants leads to a significant rise in the crime rate under the current hukou system．Further research differentiating be- tween migrants with local hukou and temporary residents reveals that migrants with local hukou are not significantly related to the crime rate while temporary residents are significantly associated with the crime rate．Rising probability of obtaining a local hukou for immigrants leads to declining crime rate．The expansion of immigrants would no longer increase the crime rates when the probability to obtain a local hukou for immigrants is relatively high．Thus this paper provides a new perspective from the hukou system and the opportunity cost of committing a crime to understand the relationship between immigrants and crime rate．

On the Relationship between Aging and Macroeconomy

Zhai Zhenwu, Zheng Ruizhen

2016, 40(2):  75-87. 

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Driven by decreasing fertility along with improving life expectancy，the world is entering an irreversible aging society．As a developing country with the largest population，China will be experiencing a sustained and rapid aging in the next 40 years．It is widely held that aging would inhibit the economic growth of China，leading even to recession．While the United States is also facing the aging problem，a research report prepared by the US National Academy of Sciences has reached different conclusions about the impact of aging on macro-economy．Population aging would have a significant impact on government expenditure; how- ever its impact would be very small on labor productivity，innovation and asset prices．Accumulation of private assets due to aging may even have a positive effect on the economy．Overall，the impact of aging on living standards is limited，and the overall macroeconomic impact is moderate．These views and conclusions about the relationship between aging and macro-economy have important enlightenments and implications for the related ageing studies in China．

The Current Status of Health Literacy in China

Yao Hongwen, Shi Qi, Li Yinghua

2016, 40(2):  88-97. 

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The overall level of health literacy ( HL) in China in 2013 stood at 9．48%，contrasting the rural level of 6．92%with theurban level of 13．80%． The level of HL in Eastern China was 12．81%，while it was 6．93%in West China and 7．10% in Central China Region．The level of HL for female was 9．73%， higher than the male level of 9．23%．In addition，the HL rates of health knowledge and concept，health skills，and health life-style and behaviors was 20．42%，12．47%and 10．62% respectively．The HL rates of chronic diseases prevention，infectious diseases prevention，basic medical care，safety and first aid，scientific healthconcept，and health information was respectively 11．59%，17．12%， 8. 30%，43．53%，32. 12% and 18．46%．The results suggest that the level of health literacy of Chinese urban and rural residents is low，but still differs substantially across different areas and sub-populations．

The Differential Effects of Demographic Changes on Urban and Rural Consumption Rates: Evidence from Chinese Provincial Panel Data

Liu Kaihao

2016, 40(2):  98-112. 

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Based on extended overlapping-generation model，this paper investigates the impacts of demographic changes on consumption rate．Using Chinese panel data from 2000 to 2013，the estimated results of system GMM and threshold regression reveal that child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio have a significant positive impact on consumption rate in urban areas，and the positive effect weakens with the improvement of income growth． While child dependency ratio and elderly dependency ratio have significant negative impact on consumption rate in rural areas，the negative impact of child dependency ratio on consumption rate strengthens with the improvement of income growth，and elderly dependency ratio shows an in- verted U-shape relationship with consumption rate．Thus in China the life-cycle theory of consumption is only applicable to urban areas，and there are significant differential effects of demographic structure changes on urban and rural consumption rate．The long-term decline in the consumption rates is a result of the sharp fall of child dependency ratio in urban areas and the constant increase of elderly dependency ratio in rural areas．