Table of Content

29 May 2016, Volume 40 Issue 3

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Distribution and Change of the Ethnic Minority Population in China: A“Hu Line”Perspective

Gao Xiangdong, Wang Xinxian, Zhu Beiqian

2016, 40(3):  3-17. 

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 The “Hu Line”and its demographic implications have attracted world-wide attention since the line was developed 80 years ago．Using GIS，this paper conducts a statistical analysis and systematic investigation on the stability and spatial patterns of China’s minority population growth on both sides of“Hu Line”by constructing the spatial database of China’s census data from 1953 to 2010 and initiating a new method for identifying the spatial patterns of population growth．Major findings are as follows: ( 1) Spatial distribution of the minority population in China is not balanced，showing a signifi- cant spatial clustering; ( 2) The minority population is widely distributed across China，spreading to East China and all over the country; ( 3) The distribution pattern of China’s minority population is characterized by extraordinary stability，with the share ratio of south-east half to north-west half standing roughly at 75: 25 from 1953 to 2010．We can thus say that the“Hu Line”is also a mutant line of China’s minority population．

Can Increasing the Contributory Period Effectively Improve the Financial Sustainability of Pension Fund? Based on the Actuarial Evaluation of Pay-as-you-go and Funded System

YAng Yixin, He Wenjiong

2016, 40(3):  18-29. 

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In order to improve the sustainability of Urban Employees’Pension System，some schol- ars suggest that it’s useful to improve the financial situation of pension fund effectively by adjusting the contributory service policy ( e． g．by increasing the minimum vesting period or mandatory retirement age) ．Based on the system，this paper builds the actuarial model from pay-as-you-go and funded fi- nance perspective，to analyze the effect of the contribution service policy adjusting on the sustainability of the system through the “contribution period”variable．The result shows that，average employee should contribute for more than 20 years to keep the horizontal balance of the pension fund under the frame of the current system．Moreover，it’s difficult to improve the financial situation of pension fund ef- fectively even if we lengthen the minimum vesting period or raise the mandatory retirement age．The conclusion shows that State Council Document 38 in 2015 decreases the effect of increasing the contribu- tory period on the system sustainability．Therefore，the expected effect of increasing the mandatory re- tirement age should be re-examined．The paper suggests that we should insist the principle of actuarial balance and take comprehensive measures to build a fair and sustainable system．

Poverty of Rural Migrant Workers Leaving both Their Farmland and Hometown: A “Survival-Development-Risk”Perspective

Zhu Xiao, Duan Chengrong

2016, 40(3):  30-44. 

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An increasingly evident trend in China’s urbanization is the“Urbanization of Poverty”． Migrant workers，especially those leaving both their farmland and hometown have become the main body of the new urban poverty population．Prior poverty studies focus more on“survival”but less on “development”and“risk”of the migrant workers．Based on the scarcity theory and the risk society theory，this paper puts forward a three dimensional framework of“Survival-Development-Risk”for poverty analysis．Empirical analysis using data of 2008 Floating Population Income Survey shows that the majority of impoverished migrant workers suffer from meager wage，hindered development，as well as lack of social insurance，and may easily fall into risky poverty．In addition，their subjective feeling of deprivation is also higher than the non-poor．This study also identifies variables，including gender，education level，job type，occupation and region，that have significant effects on poverty．

Social Support and Life Satisfaction of Young Migrants

He Hong, Wang Shuo

2016, 40(3):  45-57. 

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 In order to understand the life satisfaction status and the correlation between social support and life satisfaction of young migrants，and to provide theoretical basis for formulating targeted management and service measures，a questionnaire survey was conducted in March to May 2015．A total of 2998 qualified young migrants were selected and analyzed．The results show that young migrants in different regions have significantly different life satisfaction，with the life satisfaction in Beijing being the highest．Social support has significant positive influence on life satisfaction．Migration type，education， economic situation and health status have significant impact on life satisfaction of young migrants．Thus government departments should collaborate and combine with the specific situation of different regions to provide effective social support and improve life satisfaction of young migrants and social stability．

A Study of the Influence of Population Ageing on Labor Force Participation Rate

Zhou Zhuping, Liu Haibin

2016, 40(3):  58-70. 

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 Labor force participation level is important for labor supply and economic growth．Since changing age structure influences the overall labor force participation rate ( LFPR ) ，population ageing plays an important role in explaining differences in LFPR．By comparing age-standardized LFPR among China，Brazil，France，India，Japan and The U. S．，it is found that LFPR level of a young population is considerably higher than that of an older population under the same age-specific LFPR．Using the decomposition method of differences between rates，it is found that in 2013，the LFPR difference between China and Japan is at 12． 1 percentage points，of which 79． 0% is contributed by their age structure difference．Further empirical analysis through both national and international panel data models also indicate that LFPR is significantly negative related to population ageing．

Does Family Elderly Care Reduce Female Employment? A Two-Stage Residual Inclusion Approach

Chen Lu, Fan Hongli

2016, 40(3):  71-81. 

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The family care burden for female caregivers is becoming heavier with the population aging．Using data of the 2009 China Health and Nutrition Survey，this paper identifies the influence of family care on female labor force participation rate with a two-stage residual inclusion( 2SR I) model． There is an endogeneity problem which leads to an underestimate of the influence of family care on female labor force participation rate，and the two-stage least squares and two-stage predictor substitution would overstate the negative effect on labor force participation．The 2SRI estimator is consistent and effective to solve endogeneity in nonlinear models．The family elder care significantly reduces female la- bor force participation rate by 12． 46% ．In addition，the impact on labor force participation is greater among women living in rural areas，living with parents and having few siblings．

The Family Planning Ｒeward and Assistance Policies under the Two-Child Policy

Lv Hongping, Cui Hongwei, Yang Xin

2016, 40(3):  82-89. 

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 In line with the change from the one-child policy to the two-child policy，the family planning reward and assistance policies must be adjusted accordingly．Adjustment of the reward and assistance policies should abide by the principles of scientific connection，fairness，state responsibility and social participation．A country-led social security mechanism needs to be created to eliminate the differences in reward and assistance policies between urban and rural areas，provinces and ethnic groups，reflecting the status of the state policy and the principle of fairness．The fundamental change is to alter rewarding one-child families into encouraging the compliance with the new family planning policy．The contents need to be revised are: first，conducting a " double-track system" to implement simultaneously the old and the new methods; second，taking total responsibility to solve the practical difficulties of one- child families and special families resulting from the one-child policy; third，adding a key point，that is to solve the practical difficulties of one-child families in which the only child is injured，sick or disabled．

Determinants of Parenthood Attitude toward Adult Children’s Second Birth under the Two-Child Policy: The Case of Beijing

Tao Tao, Yang Fan, Zhang Xianling

2016, 40(3):  90-100. 

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This study aims at investigating parenthood attitude toward adult children’s second birth under the“two-child”policy based on the Beijing Empty Nest Family Survey in 2015．The survey shows that the elderly present high awareness rate of the“two-child”policy; old parents who support，oppose to，or hold the idea of non-interference to their married children’s second birth account for one third re- spectively; almost 70% of the elderly would support their adult children’s second birth through economic assistance or child care; utilitarian purposes，such as old age care，are no longer primary reasons for second birth; economic cost，concern about mothers’or baby’s health and lack of child care resources become the top three factors preventing second birth．Having a good relationship with adult children， good health condition and being currently married have a significantly positive effect on parenthood support- ive attitudes toward adult children’s second birth; open-minded idea on endowment，education and duration of the empty nest period significantly reduce the probability of the elderly to support children’s second birth; and no significant effect is found with gender，age，economic condition and preferable place for old age life．

Marriage Squeeze in Taiwan: Comparison with Chinese Mainland

Sun Weihong, Zhang Junliang

2016, 40(3):  101-112. 

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This study examine strends in the marriage squeeze in Taiwan using the theoretical redundant ratio of male births and sex ratio at marriage( MR) with Taiwan’s population data from 1970 to 2014．MR in Taiwan kept increasing and the theoretical redundant ratio of male births had a modest rise from 1970 to 2014，implying that Taiwan’s male marriage squeeze would be also on the rise in the future．Comparative analysis shows that the theoretical redundant ratio of male births in Taiwan was lower，but the MR was higher than those in the mainland from 1987 to 2013．Our analysis suggests that marriage match is a result of both the individual subjective preferences and the objective condition of the marriage market structure．Macro structure of sex and age are the predisposing factors affecting marriage squeeze，while the fundamental factors affecting marriage squeeze are family background，sociocultural context，and economic and job conditions．