Population Research

The Second Demographic Transition in China

Yu Jia and Xie Yu

2019, 43(5): 3-16.

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In the past two decades, the Second Demographic Transition (SDT) has become a major theoretical framework in explaining changes in family behaviors in many countries in the world. Using data from Census, miniCensus, and China Family Panel Studies, we present an overall evaluation of the indicators of the SDT in mainland China, including marriage timing, cohabitation rate, divorce rate, and fertility behavior. Our results suggest that different aspects of the SDT have had varying trajectories in China, in comparison to the West. A rapid change has been observed among more individualized family behavior like marriage and cohabitation: both men and women postpone the timing of transition to first marriage; cohabitation increases rapidly. In terms of childbearing, the extramarital childbirth rate and childless rate among married women are still rare. Divorce rate experienced a slow increase across cohorts, yet our prediction implies that it will remain relatively low in the near future. This study suggests that we should integrate local social, historical and cultural backgrounds in understanding family changes in China.

Factors Determining Fertility Change and the Influence of Family Planning Policy Adjustments #br# in East China: An Analysis Based on 2017 Fertility Survey

Ding Jinhong,Cheng Chen,Wu Hang and Zhang Weijia

2019, 43(5): 17-27.

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This paper constructs an explanatory model of fertility changes based on social dynamics, which consists of three factors affecting human reproductive behavior, including fertility intentions, contraceptive barriers and competing preferences. The changes in the relative effects among these three factors contribute to three stages of fertility change in human history: natural fertility, shrinking fertility and suppressed fertility. In China, family planning policy is the fourth factor. With the promotion, implementation and relaxation of the family planning policy, Chinese reproductive behaviors have adjusted accordingly, leading to fluctuating fertility rates. The building-up of market economy in early 1990s stimulated the competing preferences. Based on data for East China from the 2017 fertility survey, this paper examines trends in total fertility rate, marital duration-specific fertility rate and parity-specific total fertility rate. With Shanghai in center, fertilities by provinces differ latitudinally. We also show the changes of monthly distribution of births since 2012 to see the influence of family planning policy adjustment.

Identical Origin Point Ageing Path and Socio−Economic Impacts: A Multiple−Country #br# Comparison

Tao Tao,Wang Nanlin and Zhang Huiping

2019, 43(5): 28-42.

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Through constructing identical origin point model, this article compares the ageing process of 9 countries since their exposure to the risk of being an ageing society and examines its social and economic impact among these countries. The study finds that whether fast or slow, population ageing keeps intensifying among selected countries. Over the past decade, Chinas ageing rate has been faster than that of Japan. The ageing of labor force in China, Japan, and Korea is predicted to reach a peak as high as 45% by 2035 and to remain this level for the rest of this century. After controlling the economic growth level, it turns out that population ageing does not necessarily increase health expenditures. Instead, the proportion of the elderly population aged 80 and above shows a significant positive correlation with the health expenditures in most countries. Impact of population ageing on the saving per capita shows no consistent patterns. In most countries, the male labor participation rate drops as the ageing level ascends. However, some countries may also witness a climb in female labor participation rate due to the effect of population ageing.

Disability and Mortality Trajectories of the Chinese Oldest−old

Hu Xiaoqian,Gao Qilong,Zhao Can,Wei Jingming,Sun Xueshan,Gu Yuxuan,Zhen Xuemei,Li Yuanyuan and Dong Hengjin

2019, 43(5): 43-53.

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Based on seven-wave data of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey from 1998 to 2014, this article applies group-based trajectory models to jointly estimate disability and mortality trajectories among the Chinese oldest-olds and to explore factors related to the particular disability trajectories. Heterogeneous disability trajectories have been shown for the oldest-olds by gender. Men can be categorized into three groups of trajectories, including “trajectory with a low start and slow growth”, “trajectory with a low start and rapid growth” and “trajectory with a high start and slow growth”. Women are also categorized into three groups of trajectories, including “trajectory with a low start and slow growth”, “trajectory with a low start and rapid growth” and “trajectory with a high start and rapid growth”. For women, the proportion of those belonging to the “trajectory of a low start and slow growth” is lower than that of men. For both men and women, the mortality trajectories follow a hierarchy in consistence with disability trajectories. Compared to men belonging to the same group of trajectory, women show lower mortality. Residence and occupations are associated with the oldest-old’s disability trajectory.

The Effects and Mechanism of Coping Style and Social Networks on Depressive Symptoms #br# among Left−behind Elderly in Rural China

Tang Dan and Xu Ying

2019, 43(5): 54-65.

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Using the data of CLASS 2014, this paper examines the associations between coping styles, social networks and depressive symptoms among rural left-behind older adults. The mediating and moderating effects of coping styles and social networks are tested. The results suggest that the family ties of left-behind elderly are lower than that of the non-left-behind, while the depressive symptoms are higher; positive coping styles decrease the depressive symptoms, while negative coping styles increase the depressive symptoms among rural left-behind older adults; family networks are negatively associated with the depressive symptoms, while the association between friendship networks and depressive symptoms is not significant; the correlation between positive coping styles is totally mediated by family networks; no moderating effects of coping styles or social networks is verified; the mechanism of coping styles, social networks and depressive symptom among left-behind older adults is different from that among the non-left-behind counterparts.

Rural Ageing and Rural Spatial Evolution:Spatial Developments in Ageing of Rural China at Township Level

Wang Hongxia

2019, 43(5): 66-80.

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From the perspective of rural micro-space development, this paper studies the spatial development of the ageing of rural China and its possible impact. Based on the rural township data, it finds that more than 78% villages have become an ageing society. What is striking is that many villages are experiencing deep and even super ageing. Using the Theil Index, it shows that ageing of rural China is characterized by a bigger intra-regional than inter-regional heterogeneity. In general, the distribution of the elder population in most rural areas is more scattered. It argues that the three factors including the degree of ageing, the distribution of the rural elder population, and the rural development are critical to the spatial effect of rural ageing. With the evolution of the distribution of the rural elder population and the rapid development of population ageing in the villages, policy-makers should pay more attention to the ageing process of the shrinking villages and the development of the villages with deep or super degree of ageing, in order to better plan and deal with the spatial-economic challenges brought by the rural ageing process.

A Comparative Study on the Population Structure of Migrants from Two Perspectives

Zhou Hao

2019, 43(5): 81-95.

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Based on data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) conducted in the origin and destination in 2015, this paper compares the structural differences of the floating population under the two survey perspectives, with the mini-census in 2015 as the benchmark. The results suggest that the survey conducted in origin is closer to the results of the mini-census in age structure, marriage, and distance of movement. The survey conducted in destination is closer to the mini-census in terms of residence time. Women in the destination areas and short-term (1 year or less) migrants in the origin areas are over-sampled. Both surveys focus on the population of low education level while neglecting the population with college degree or above. From the perspective of survey methodology, recruiting different respondents is one of the most important sources of survey errors, especially measurement errors. In addition to coverage error, non-response error is also one of the important factors affecting the survey results and sample structures.

The Assessment of Social Integration of Urban Migrant Population: An Investigation Based on 50 Cities of Migration Destination

Xiao Zihua,Xu Shuiyuan and Liu Jinwei

2019, 43(5): 96-112.

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Through constructing the social integration assessment index system of migrant population from four dimensions, i. e. , politics, economy, public service, and psychological culture, on the basis of the literature, this research examines social integration of migrant population in 50 cities of major population inflows across the country. The evaluation results show that the overall social integration of the migrant population in the 50 cities is not high, and there are significant differences among different dimensions. The integration level ranking from high to low is the dimension of public service, politics, economy, and psychological culture. The level of social integration of migrants also varies across different regions and types of cities. It is recommended that the reform of the household registration system should be continued to break the institutional barriers of the social integration of the migrant population; education and employment training should be strengthened to improve the capacity of the migrant population in order to promote their integration; basic public services should be provided for the migrant population in order to reduce their dependence on the land and their traditional social relations. According to the laws and wishes of population mobility, the urbanization strategy will be adjusted.

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