Table of Content

29 September 2020, Volume 44 Issue 5

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Marriage and Divorce in China: Trends and Global Comparison

Yu Jia,Zhao Xiaohang,Xie Yu

2020, 44(5):  3-18. 

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Chinese family has experienced dramatic changes in recent decades, especially in terms of union formation and dissolution. Using data from Census, miniCensus, and China Family Panel Studies, we provide estimates of marriage and divorce in China. We further compare marriage and divorce trends of China with those in the United States, Japan, South Korea, Russia, British, France, German, Italy, and Spain. Our results show a delayed first marriage age and increased singlehood rate in China, yet marriage is still earlier and more universal in China than in other developed countries. We expect increases in both marriage age and singlehood rate as Chinas economy further develops. Despite a high crude divorce rate in recent China, our results based on age and cohort analysis reveal that divorce is much less prevalent in China than in other countries. With the persistent childcentered family culture, we argue that marriage in China will remain relatively stable in the short term.

Marriage Delayed or Marriage Forgone? Marriage Tradition and Personal Choice

Chen Weimin,Li Xiaoqing

2020, 44(5):  19-32. 

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Age at first marriage in China has been greatly delayed, but the proportion of population who stay lifetime single is still at a very low level, which is significantly different from the pattern of European marriage. The Chinese society attaches importance to the intergenerational obligation relationship in the family, and the social policies do their best to maintain the specific and exclusive gain from marriage, which strengthen the marriage value and help to maintain the universal marriage. However, in modern societies with intensive social mobility, people's values become more diverse. Conflict between consumerism culture and traditional concepts of marriage, family, and fertility affects people's choice of life style, which increases the risk of making non-marriage choices. In a period of economic slowdown and transformation, it is more difficult for individuals to find a suitable spouse in the marriage market, and thus more likely to choose not to marry. To analyze and predict the trend of marriage pattern in China, we must understand the process of individual marriage decision, especially the difference between universal marriage pattern and non-universal marriage pattern.

International Migration in the Era of COVID-19 Prevention and Control: Remarks on Migration Transition in China

Duan Chengrong,Xie Donghong,Wang Han,Lyu Lidan

2020, 44(5):  33-43. 

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Changes in the international migration calls for further research. By reviewing the history of international migration transition, we find that the flow, direction, and structure of international migration have undergone remarkable changes towards a larger scale and more complex structures. At the same time, although Chinas international migration has fluctuated, the number of international migrants either from or to mainland China has increased constantly. It is expected that with the deepening reform and opening and “The Belt and Road” initiatives, the scale of China's international migration will keep growing. China will transit from a state with few international migrants and limited knowledge about international migration towards a state with large-scale international migration which needs more understanding towards international migration and related affairs. To enter the incoming era of large-scale international migration, China should systematically collect the information of international migrants, work out the details of relevant laws and regulations, carry out international migration perspective assessment on major economic, trade, diplomatic and other strategies, and establish targeted migration plans.

Human Mobility and Spatio-temporal Dynamics of COVID-19 in China: Comparing Survey Data and Big Data

Liu Tao,Jin Yongai

2020, 44(5):  44-59. 

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This study investigates the impact of human mobility on the spatio-temporal dynamics of COVID-19 spread by utilizing daily COVID-19 data of more than 300 cities in China. The spread of COVID-19 in China is characterized by a two-stage pattern, namely the inter-city transmission driven by human mobility in the first stage and the local transmission among family members in the second stage, which have further shaped the spatio-temporal patterns. The impacts of human mobility on the COVID-19 spread are featured by structural differences and dynamic patterns. Temporal movements including tourism and business travel are the main route of transmission at the beginning of COVID-19 outbreak, while internal migrants returning to their hometowns during the Chinese Spring Festival are mainly responsible for the peak outbreak in early February. Both survey data and big data have equally high statistical power in predicting and interpreting the spread of COVID-19, indicating that the combination of the twos strengths would contribute substantially to advancing quantitative research and improving social governance capacity.

Chinese Older Adults' Consumption Expenditure Structure and Its Determinants

Yang Fan,Pan Yue,Huang Yingjiao

2020, 44(5):  60-79. 

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In the era of accelerated population aging, the proportion of older adults in the consumer group also increases tremendously. Based on data from China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey, this article employs the analytical framework of Kotler's consumption behavior model and K-means clustering analysis method to categorize different types of consumption structure for Chinese older adults. Logistic regression method is conducted to analyze the factors affecting the consumption structure upgrading. The results show that the consumption patterns of the older adults are diverse, and their upgrades have not been hindered. The transformation from the basic to the developmental consumption structure is driven by demand factors and restricted by resource factors, and also supported by social networks, technology, and other external factors. These factors have heterogeneous impacts on older adults from urban/rural areas at different ages and income levels. These differences call for differentiated policies targeting on different subgroups.

The Effect Evaluation of Beijings Population Regulation Policy in the New Period: Quasi-natural Experiment Based on Difference-in-Differences-in-Differences Estimation

Tong Yufen,Gong Qiannan

2020, 44(5):  80-91. 

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Since 2015, the implementation of “The Outline of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Coordinated Development Plan” has led to a new thinking of Beijing's population regulations in the new era, based on the measures of relocating non-capital functions of Beijing, promoting the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, and driving population decentralization through functional decentralization. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of Beijing's population regulation policy since 2015 by using the quasi-natural experiment of difference-in-differences-in-differences estimation. This paper finds that the implementation of Beijing's population regulation policies is negatively correlated with the size of permanent residents, and the policies effectively reduce the population of permanent residents by 11.6% compared to the case without the new polices. The policy effect becomes significant after 2017 and increases year by year. Further analysis suggests that because the 2020 population planning target has been basically achieved, the population regulation targeted at scale control needs to be adjusted. Under the framework of comprehensive optimization objectives, space optimization and quality improvements of population should be carried out in next step.

The Role of Public Services in Chinas Economic Growth:Based on Population Structure and Population Aggregation

Li Zhuangyuan

2020, 44(5):  92-107. 

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 After 40 years of economic reform, China's economy has achieved a miracle of sustained and rapid growth. For an industrialized society, public services can narrow the income gap between the rich and the poor, coordinate unbalanced development, maintain social equity and justice, and improve people's life. How to achieve a balance between sustained economic growth and the improvement of the quality and level of public services? Can public services promote economic development? What is the mechanism? Based on provincial panel data from 1994 when China's tax reform started, this research uses econometric panel analysis methods to examine the role of public services in economic growth. Specifically, we treat the public services as the core variables in the analytical model and explore how they affect economic growth after controlling for population structure, population aggregation and other factors. Empirical evidence shows that in the era of slow population growth, population aging, and urban population agglomeration, the improvement of public services has a significant role in promoting economic growth and is an important source of economic development.

Late Motherhood Premium: The Income Effect of Delaying Age at First Birth for Chinese Women

Wang Jun

2020, 44(5):  108-121. 

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Does delaying age of first childbearing bring economic benefits to women? Previous studies have failed to reach a sufficient consensus. This paper argues that family's policy environment is the key factor to understand the impact of birth timing on women's labor market income. Different institutional environment has shaped the situation of women's human capital investment and its impact on women's career development and long-term economic income before and after childbearing. Based on the longitudinal data of 9 periods of “China Health and Nutrition Survey”, this study uses the Fixed Effect Models to test the impact of the postponement of age of first birth on women's labor market income under the special environment of China's fertility policy. Results suggest that late childbearing within a certain age range is conducive to the improvement of women's income level; women with urban household registration, higher education level, and first birth in the recent past can gain more rewards for late childbearing. From the perspective of economic rationality, this study provides another possible explanation for the delaying age of childbearing in China.

Blocking Intergenerational Transmission of Poverty

Lv Shichen

2020, 44(5):  122-128. 

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China‘’s poverty mainly occurs in rural areas. Only by blocking the intergenerational transmission of rural poverty can Chinas poverty be fundamentally eliminated. The construction of the newborn population security system is the fundamental policy to block the intergenerational transmission of poverty. This paper points out the significance of building a newborn population security system for farmers to block the intergenerational transmission of poverty; and argues that the cause of rural poverty is the difference between urban and rural areas. This paper puts forward a series of effective measures to block the intergenerational transmission of rural poverty, and suggests that only by making the newborn population of farmers having good health and receiving good education can we block the intergenerational transmission of poverty of the newborn population of farmers and build a well-off society in an all-round way.