关键词: 西南四省, 时期生育水平, 队列生育水平, 生育政策调整, 效果评估

Abstract: Based on four provinces data, including Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou and Yunnan, from 2017 China Fertility Survey, this paper evaluates the fertility level of southwest China before and after policy adjustment in terms of period and cohort fertility level, and examines the provincial differences. The results show that: First, TFR has been increasing substantially since 2016, which is caused almost completely by the rise of TFR for second birth. Second, average age at first marriage and age at first birth have been delayed, leading to lower level of TFR for first birth and decreased average number of children even born for younger women. Third, the increase of average number of children even born and ratio of parity progression for second birth for women aged 35 to 39, especially for those with nonagricultural Hukou, reflect the policy adjustment effects. Finally, there are marked regional and group differences in fertility level in Southwest China. Fertility is higher in Guizhou and Yunnan, compared to Chongqing and Sichuan; and is higher in women with agricultural Hukou than those with nonagricultural Hukou. Policy adjustment effects are more significant in women with nonagricultural Hukou.

Keywords: Four Provinces in Southwest China, Period Fertility Level, Cohort Fertility Level, Adjustment of Fertility Policy, Effect Evaluation