人口研究 ›› 2019, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (2): 32-44.

• 生育研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国生育水平、生育意愿的再认识:现实和未来

王金营1马志越2李嘉瑞3   

  1. 王金营1,河北大学经济学院;马志越2,河北大学经济学院;李嘉瑞3,河北大学经济学院
  • 出版日期:2019-03-29 发布日期:2019-04-17
  • 作者简介:王金营,河北大学经济学院院长、教授;马志越,河北大学经济学院博士研究生;李嘉瑞,河北大学经济学院硕士研究生

Rethinking China’s Actual and Desired Fertility: Now and Future

Wang Jinying1,Ma Zhiyue2 Li Jiarui3   

  1. Wang Jinying1, School of Economics, Hebei University; Ma Zhiyue2 School of Economics, Hebei University;Li Jiarui 3 School of Economics, Hebei University
  • Online:2019-03-29 Published:2019-04-17
  • About author:Wang Jinying is Dean and Professor, School of Economics, Hebei University; Ma Zhiyue is PhD Candidate and Li Jiarui is Master Student, School of Economics, Hebei University

摘要: 利用2017年全国生育状况抽样调查中北方七省市数据,通过总和生育率、孩次递进总和生育率、递进总和生育率、终生生育率及生育模式(婚育年龄)变动等多指标多维度综合评估,我国特别是北方七省市生育水平确实处于较低水平,但是并非处于极低水平,应该是处于1.5~1.9之间,受政策调整等因素影响只是波动不稳。同时,单独(全面)两孩生育政策对二孩出生增加有明显作用。对育龄妇女的生育意愿及其影响因素进行评估分析,用平均再生育意愿指标低估了人们的实际生育意愿,利用意愿递进生育率可以真实反映育龄妇女的生育意愿水平。根据生育意愿及其决定因素,特别是20~29和30~39岁年龄组的意愿递进生育率可以判断未来生育水平有上升的可能和势能。

关键词: 总和生育率, 递进总和生育率, 意愿递进生育率, 全面两孩

Abstract: This paper uses the data of the seven northern provinces and cities in the 2017 China Fertility Survey, to assess the fertility status and actual fertility level in China, particularly in the northern provinces, with total fertility rate, parity progressive total fertility rate, lifetime fertility rate, and fertility patterns (age patterns of marriage and childbearing). The results suggest that the fertility level in China is indeed at a moderately low fertility level between 1.5 and 1.9, but not at a very low level. The twochild policy has a significant effect on the fertility of the second child. Parity Progressive desired fertility tends to more truly represent the actual desired fertility. According to the parity progressive desired fertility at ages 20~29 and 30~39, there is a possibility of increase in future fertility in China.

Keywords: Total Fertility Rate, Parity Progressionbased Total Fertility Rate, Parity Progressionbased Desired Fertility Rate, The Universal TwoChild Policy