关键词: 年龄结构转变, 三角图轨迹, 红利拐点, 年龄结构均衡

Abstract: A three-group age structure can be designated as a point in the triangular diagram, while the routine of the points in time series traces the age structure evolution. The paper classifies the age structure evolution patterns of countries (areas) in the world and provinces in China, and discovers the general and ergodic age structure transition (AST) pattern which experiences three stages: the “bonus raising” stage (i.e., from the traditional fertile young population to fewer children-more labors population), the “debted ageing” stage (i.e., from fewer children-more labors population to fewer labors-more aged population), and the stage in between (i.e., turning stage). While developed countries are primarily in the middle of stage three, most developing countries are in the late phase of the first stage, and many least developed countries in Africa are still in the early stage one or even in the traditional position. Started in the 1950s and accelerated since the 1980s, the AST in China is now just passing the turning stage with diversifying decreasing bonuses at turning points from coast to inland provinces. According to a simulation scenario, China will approach the equilibrium position near 2100, with 15% children, 55% labor forces, and 30% older people, which is probably the common end of all countries in the future.

Keywords: Age Structure Transition, Triangular Diagram Routine, Bonus Turning Point, Age Structure Equilibrium