关键词: 碳排放, 人口增长, 消费模式, STIRPAT模型, 岭回归

Abstract: By using STIRPAT approach,this paper examines the impacts of population size,population structure,and consumption pattern and technology development on carbon emission in China.It reveals that changes in consumption pattern and population structure are the two major driven factors that played a more important role compared with population size.There is a high correlation between consumption pattern and carbon emission.Urbanization results in increased use of fossil energy,cement products,and changes in land coverage,which all lead to more carbon emission.Population age structure affects the carbon emission mainly through changes in labor force supply and consequently the overall economic growth.Reduction in average family size has negatively linked with the carbon emission as overhead consumption of smaller family household may be bigger than those larger family households,which deserves further studies.The paper also claims that China has made great effort in reduction of carbon emission through population control.Potential social policies concerning low-carbon development are discussed.

Keywords: Carbon Emission, Population, Consumption, STIRPAT, Ridge Regression