关键词: 气候变化, 家庭户, 人口老化, 城市化, 能源消费, 温室气体, iPETS

Abstract: The studies on the relationships between population and climate change have not attracted enough attentions from climate research community and policy makers.This paper reviews the researches of the impact of population dynamics on climate change,through analyzing the findings and limitations of existing approaches and models,particularly introducing the progresses in improving the projections of CO2emissions using the integrated assessment model iPETS. It reveals that population dynamics,interacting with economic growth and technological changes,is one of the root cause of climate changes. Population dynamics is not only the changes in population size,but also the compositional changes and spatial distributions of the populations and households.Household,instead of individual in a population,should be considered as the demographic unit of analysis in climate changeforecasting. Aging,urbanization,and household shrinking are all important demographic factors determining future changes in the climate system.This paper gives examples on how to improve the demographic modules in climate change modeling,and indicates the importance of considering demographic factors in stipulating climate change mitigation policies.

Keywords: Climate Change, Household, Population Aging, Urbanization; Energy Consumption, CO₂