关键词: 死亡比, 节气变化, 时间趋势

Abstract:  Using mortality data from Shanghai death registration system,this paper examines death distribution in solar terms by population groups and by causes of death according to the daily death counts by different populations in different solar terms.The circular distribution statistics and the excess mortality ratio(EMR)are employed to analyze how death occurrences from different causes or different population groups are distributed in different solar terms.The mean angle of the population exists in 347.61°(Great Cold),while that of the four different age groups(0-4,5-44,45-64,and above 65 years)were 207.13°(Stopping the Heat),343.34°(Slight Cold),321.31°(Winter Solstice),and 349.25°(Great cold)respectively.Moreover,the mean angles of the circulatory diseases,respiratory diseases and diabetes were between 344.04°(Slight Cold)and 359.44°(Great Cold).Furthermore,EMR increases significantly after the Winter Solstice Term,reaching the peak in Slight Cold and Great Cold.The transition of EMR among the two genders has similar trends,while that among different age groups has different patterns.Thus,solar terms,reflecting climate variation rather accurately in a year,may predict temporal mortality risk of some diseases,which is of significance in protecting the susceptible population groups.

Keywords: Mortality Ratio, Solar Terms, Time Trends