关键词: 流动人口, 流入地选择, 选择机制, 嵌套Logit模型, 地级行政区

Abstract: Based on the 2017 China Migrants Dynamic Survey and data from relevant statistical yearbooks, this paper uses nested logit model (NLGT) to analyse the destination selection mechanism of floating population in China. This study takes prefecture regions as the basic geographical analysis unit and the flow sample as the research object. The results show significant structural differences between flow sample and stock sample, and heterogeneous effects of the same variables on different samples. The socioeconomic returns that floating population can personally feel play an important role in the destination selection mechanism. The interaction between regional level and individual characteristics shows that regional level characteristics have a heterogeneous effect on the selection mechanism. The paper suggests that focusing on flow or stock samples should be based on the specific study aim of different research questions. Expected socioeconomic return, rather than expected income, is one of the most important factors attracting floating population. The destination selection is a rational and comprehensive decision made by floating population based on individual characteristics and the regional level characteristics of the destination.

Keywords: Floating Population, Destination Selection, Selection Mechanism, Nested Logit Model, Prefecture Level Administrative Region