中国人口长期发展目标研究——基于增强经济实力的认识

人口研究 ›› 2022, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (4): 40-54.

中国人口长期发展目标研究——基于增强经济实力的认识

王金营1，李庄园^2，王冬梅³

王金营¹，河北大学经济学院教授；李庄园²，河北大学哲学与社会学学院讲师；王冬梅³，河北大学经济学院博士研究生。

出版日期:2022-07-29 发布日期:2022-08-03
作者简介:王金营，河北大学经济学院教授；李庄园，河北大学哲学与社会学学院讲师；王冬梅，河北大学经济学院博士研究生。
基金资助:
本文是研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“增强综合实力的中国人口长期发展战略研究”（21ZDA108）的阶段性成果。

A Reconceptualization of China's Goals for Long-term Population Development to Strengthen the Economy

Wang Jinying¹，Li Zhuangyuan²，Wang Dongmei³

Wang Jinying ¹，College of Economics，Hebei University; Li Zhuangyuan 2， College of Philosophy and Sociology，Hebei University; Wang Dongmei³，College of Economics，Hebei University．

Online:2022-07-29 Published:2022-08-03
About author:Wang Jinying ，College of Economics，Hebei University; Li Zhuangyuan ， College of Philosophy and Sociology，Hebei University; Wang Dongmei，College of Economics，Hebei University．

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在全面建设社会主义现代化强国的进程中，中国将面临世界百年未有之大变局，还将会受到人口加速老龄化、人口负增长、劳动力数量减少而抚养负担加重给社会经济发展和综合国力提升带来的影响和挑战。在对人口发展规律和人口与社会经济发展关系重新认识的基础上，论证了不断增强国家经济实力所需要的人口发展状态，提出未来中国人口长期发展战略目标的范围和方向，明确了人口规模在战略取向上的核心和基础地位。具体来说，应积极改变人口长期发展轨迹，以接近更替水平为目标努力提升生育率，从而到21世纪末使总人口规模能够维持在9亿~12亿人，促进人口向着规模相对稳定、结构逐步优化、素质不断提升、空间分布合理的有利于增强经济实力的方向发展。

关键词: font-family:", background-color:#FFFFFF, ">经济实力；高质量发展；人口发展战略

Abstract: In the process of building a modern country, China is witnessing major changes unfolding in our world, something unseen in a century. China is also facing challenges such as rapid population ageing, negative population growth and a decline in labor force that would largely impact its socioeconomic development and comprehensive strength. Based on a renewed understanding of the population development and its relationship with socioeconomic development, this paper discusses the state of population development needed to enhance the country's economic strength. It also proposes the scope and direction of China's longterm population development in the future, emphasizing the central and fundamental position of population size. To be specific, the desired population size should be between 0.9 and 1.2 billion by the end of this century. Actively changing the longterm trajectory of population development, raising the fertility rate close to the replacement level and keeping the population size between 0.9 and 1.2 billion would also improve the population structure, quality and spatial distribution, strengthening the economy.

Keywords: Economic Strength, Highquality Development, Population Development Strategy

王金营, 李庄园, 王冬梅. 中国人口长期发展目标研究——基于增强经济实力的认识[J]. 人口研究, 2022, 46(4): 40-54.

Wang Jinying, Li Zhuangyuan, Wang Dongmei. A Reconceptualization of China's Goals for Long-term Population Development to Strengthen the Economy [J]. Population Research, 2022, 46(4): 40-54.