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The Effect of Number of Children on Expected Retirement Age of Parents: A Fertility Policy Adjustment Perspective
Xu Yingdong, Yu Xiao
Population Research    2025, 49 (1): 37-52.  
Abstract97)            Save
After the official implementation of the policy to gradually raise the statutory retirement age, we utilize data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) and employ the number of children of parents' siblings as an exclusive instrumental variable to empirically test the fertility policy heterogeneous treatment effect of the number of children on parents' expected retirement age based on the generalized Roy model. The findings reveal a delay effect of having multiple children on parents' expected retirement age. As the constraint imposed by the fertility policy on having multiple children increases, the effect becomes more pronounced. Simulation results regarding fertility policy adjustments suggest that, following the Universal Two-Child Policy and Three-Child Fertility Policy, the increase in the number of parents having multiple children further strengthens the delay effect of having multiple children on parents' expected retirement age. In light of this, governments and employers may consider taking into account employees' family situations regarding children, so as to refine the detailed implementation measures for employees' flexible early or delayed retirement. Meanwhile, governments at all levels should accelerate the improvement of the fertility support policy system and incentive mechanisms.
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High-quality Population Development, New Human Capital, and High-quality Employment
Yu Xiao, Wang Qihui
Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 59-73.  
Abstract513)      PDF (1282KB)(483)       Save
The overall quality—scientific and cultural quality, health quality, and ideological and moral quality—is the key to high-quality population development. Based on the three-level theory of personality, this paper constructs a comprehensive analysis framework of non-cognitive ability and verifies the impact of non-cognitive ability, such as ideological and moral quality and personality quality, on high-quality employment of workers from the perspective of the new human capital theory. Main conclusions: Workers with higher scores in emotional stability, conscientiousness, and openness personality traits will achieve greater external career success, while those with higher scores in conscientiousness, extroversion, agreeableness, and openness will experience higher internal career achievement. A sense of successful value helps to enhance a worker's external and internal career accomplishments. Workers with higher scores in industrious experience will obtain higher internal career achievement. Non-cognitive ability maximizes personal utility through career matching, and also affects workers' career achievements by increasing occupational investment and accumulating social capital.
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The Impact of Flowing Effect and Registered Residence Discrimination on the Income of Floating Population:Analysis Based on Bilateral Stochastic Frontier Model
Yu Xiao, ChenXiaole, Xie Langzhuo
Population Research    2022, 46 (2): 61-74.  
Abstract900)      PDF (14170KB)(202)       Save
Based on the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey (CMDS) in 2017, this paper empirically tests the two action mechanisms of increasing and restraining the income of floating population by using the bilateral stochastic frontier model. The study finds that for the whole sample, the final wage income of floating population is higher than the reserved wage; Subsample results show that the premium effect in the eastern and central regions is higher than the inhibiting effect of registered residence discrimination, and the premium effect in the eastern part is significantly higher than that in the central and western regions. The wage premium effect in the western region is lower than the inhibiting effect of registered residence discrimination. There is a large wage gap among floating population. The lowincome group is more discriminatory by registered residence. Their lower wage premium leads to a lower wage earning than the retained income. In contrast, the highincome group benefits more from the wage premium effect.
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Impact of Destination City on Settlement Intention of Floating Population:Based on the Family Life Cycle Theory
Yu Xiao, Xu Yingdong
Population Research    2021, 45 (1): 50-67.  
Abstract856)      PDF (1105KB)(422)       Save
This paper introduces the family life cycle theory to decompose the impact of the destination city's characteristics on the settlement intention of floating population. It is found that housing affordability has the greatest crowding-out effect on the settlement intention of floating people in family formation period; public services have the most significant pulling effect on the settlement intention of floating people in family expansion period; social integration has the largest pulling effect on family shrinkage. In family formation period, the crowding-out effect of housing affordability is greater for the low-educated and low-income floating population; in family expansion period, the pulling effect of public services has indistinguishable impact on the high & low-educated or high & low-income groups; during family shrinkage period, the pulling effect of social integration has a stronger impact on low-educated and low-income floating population. Using family life cycle theory to study the group heterogeneity of the impact of the destination city on the settlement intention of the floating population helps implement the strategic deployment of “people-centered” new urbanization.
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Urban and Rural Differences in Marriage Squeeze of Chinese Men
Yu Xiao, Zhu Yingrun and Kan Xinglong
Population Research    2019, 43 (4): 3-16.  
Abstract580)      PDF (1884KB)(968)       Save
Using data from 2010 census, this paper constructs a discrete development model and predicts the age and gender structure of never married population from 2010 to 2060 separately for China's urban and rural areas. Spousal sex ratio index of marriage is used to measure the marriage squeeze of never-married men, and this study also decomposes the impacts of age structure, gender structure and spouse age differences on marriage squeeze by urban and rural areas. The results show that, from 2010 to 2060, the urban-rural difference in marriage squeeze of never-married men shows a fluctuating trend. The urban-rural gap will drop gradually till 2025, then rise steadily to 2050 and start to drop again. The urban-rural difference in gender structure contributes largely to the urban-rural disparity in marriage squeeze of never-married men. The implementation of the universal two-child policy might alleviate the marriage squeeze, while ruralurban migration exacerbates the rural-urban disparities in marriage squeeze. The government should take necessary measures as soon as possible to improve the effect of the universal two-child policy and pay attention to the influence of rural-urban migration on the marriage squeeze of rural men.
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The Income Difference between Rural and Urban Floating Migrants: The Quantile Regression Based on Data of 2015 Dynamic Monitoring of Floating Population#br#
Yu Xiao,Sun Yue
Population Research    2017, 41 (1): 84-97.  
Abstract477)      PDF (220KB)(1144)       Save
Based on the dynamic monitoring data of floating population in 2015,this study adopts the quantile regression and quantile decomposition analysis to explore the wage difference between the rural and urban floating population.There is a significant income gap between the groups of the floating population.In addition to the characteristic differences,discrimination resulting from the household registration system stands at as high as 36.8% of the total impact on wage income difference.Meanwhile,the coefficients affecting the income at different quantiles significantly differ between the rural and urban floating population.In the counterfactual state,increase of the income quantile ( income level) leads to widening of the income gap of the two groups,and the impact of the discrimination deepens, which is as high as 75.1% in 90% quantile.Apparently,reforming the household registration system will help narrow the income gap within the floating population.Furthermore,a range of supporting policies are needed to reduce the discrimination and to promote urban-rural integration.
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