Content of Constructing China's Independent Demographic Knowledge System in our journal

Published in last 1 year |  In last 2 years |  In last 3 years |  All Please wait a minute... For Selected: Download Citations EndNote Ris BibTeX Toggle Thumbnails Select Pronatalist Policies: Central Government Responsibilities and Top-Level Design Du Yang, Cheng Jie, Qu Yue Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 3-16.   Abstract （104）            Knowledge map    Save Due to the positive correlation between population size and technological innovation, there exists a positive externality in fertility, which is intertemporal and inseparable across regions. Since the benefits of high fertility are reaped at the national level, the central government has the principal responsibilities to implement pronatalist policies. Policy design deviating this principle would distort the behaviors of local governments. In this context, a well-designed pronatalist policy should clearly define the responsibilities between the central and the local governments to achieve a mechanism with incentive compatibility at both the micro and macro level. The core of pronatalist policy is to resolve the conflicts between childbirth and female labor market participation and to prioritize those that both facilitate childbearing and improve women's competitiveness in the labor market. Personal income tax deduction is one of the policies that meets the above criteria. The top-level design should complete the policy framework to effectively include women of childbearing age and implement targeted policies based on the characteristics of different groups. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics Select Population Inertia and Momentum: Concept, Causes, and Empirical Evidence Zhou Changhong, Mao Zhuoyan Population Research    2024, 48 (2): 17-29.   Abstract （96）            Knowledge map    Save Population momentum and population inertia are connected concepts. Both are used to describe the phenomenon that the population will continue growing or decreasing before reaching a stationary population when the fertility reaches the replacement level. However, there are also differences. The population momentum is virtual and can be estimated for any year, while population inertia is a specific demographic phenomenon that only occurs after the population's fertility reaches the replacement level. The Lag effect of fertility on generation replacement is the fundamental cause of population inertia and determines that the standard period of inertial period is equal to the difference between the population's life expectancy at birth and the mean age of childbearing. The length of an actual inertial period of the population is affected by the fertility level during the inertial period and the size of migration. The amplitude of population growth or decrease during the inertial period is affected by the fertility rates in the decades before entering the inertial period. Empirical analysis shows that China, Japan, South Korea and Germany have already undergone the complete processes of population inertial growth which have lasted for 30-50 years. The UK, France, Thailand and Brazil are in the process of population inertial growth. So far, no country in the world has entered the process of negative inertial growth of population. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics Select Population Structure Reconstruction and Human Capital Accounting in China from 2000 to 2020 Wang Jinying, Zhang Guoting Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 3-21.   Abstract （388）      PDF （16840KB）（43）       Knowledge map    Save Continuous and complete population data by age and education level are the basis for studying the dynamic relationship between population and economic and social development in a country or region. However, in non-census years, such data cannot be directly obtained or its quality cannot be guaranteed. To this end, the national population census data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 are used to reconstruct the population data by age and education level for non-census years from 2000 to 2020 using the population discrete development equation forward and backward bidirectional feedback fitting method. Based on this, an improved accounting model is used to calculate the human capital stock from 2000 to 2020.The research results show that the difference between the reconstructed non-census year total population data and the adjusted data from the National Bureau of Statistics is very small. The reconstructed age-specific population data corrected the bias in the age composition data published in previous statistical yearbooks. The calculated data on human capital stock shows that it increased from 15.856 billion person-years in 2000 to 26.479 billion person-years in 2020, with an average annual growth rate of 2.60%. Affected by the ageing population and the decrease in the working age population, the growth rate of human capital stock shows a decreasing trend between the first and the second ten-year periods. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics Select China's Population Quality to Complement Population Quantity: Intrinsic Mechanism and Realization Path Hu Yaoling, Xu Yangyang Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 22-39.   Abstract （287）      PDF （16126KB）（42）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from censuses and statistical yearbooks between 2000 and 2020 and World Population Prospects 2022, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation model for labor force quality to estimate the nominal labor supply and effective labor supply equivalent in China and analyze the feasibility and realization path of population quality complementing population quantity. The results show that China's nominal labor supply will drop from 744.7 million in 2020 to 565.9 million in 2050. Although the effective labor supply equivalent is higher than the nominal labor supply, it is constrained by the decline of the labor force. The effective labor supply equivalent will peak at 752.9 million in 2028 and then drop to 643.1 million in 2050. By improving the relative labor quality through educational reform and health interventions, the year of the peak can be postponed until 2032, and it can remain over 714 million before 2050, achieving the population quality complementing quantity in the short term. In the long term, fully leveraging the compensatory effect of population quality cannot be achieved without a certain population size. It is necessary to strengthen the policy system further to support fertility. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics Select The Limitations and Future Prospects of Formal Demography in Contemporary China Wang Xuehui, Peng Xizhe Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 65-77.   Abstract （193）      PDF （1216KB）（59）       Knowledge map    Save With the socioeconomic development and transformation, China's demographic changes have showed various unique cultural characteristics and strong contemporary features. Many concepts, indicators and theories in formal demography can hardly be used to accurately analyze and interpret China's population development. The main problems lie in the inadequate temporal relevance of some demographic analytical indicators and their lack of effective localization. These indicators include those in the fields of population ageing, population migration, and family studies. The Chinese path of modernization and rapid demographic transition has provided rich empirical scenarios for the innovative developments in demography. The future development of Chinese demography should be based on the inheritance of the formal demography achievement and the incorporation of the new features in the new era. Meanwhile, it should also follow the principles of topicality, localization, expansion and internationalization to innovate or reconstruct the formal demographic index system and theoretical frameworks, continuously promote the establishment of an autonomous knowledge system in Chinese demography and contribute Chinese wisdom to the development of demography worldwide. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics Select The Shift of Marriage and Procreation Culture in China and Its Demographic Consequences Shi Renbing, Wang Jun Population Research    2023, 47 (6): 78-90.   Abstract （269）      PDF （1237KB）（154）       Knowledge map    Save Previous studies on the shifts of Chinese marriage and procreation culture did not reveal the essential characteristics of various cultures or the deep-seated socio-economic background. Based on the examination of mainstream societal values, this study reveals that in traditional Chinese society, people's marriage and procreation behaviors were deeply influenced by Familism. This dominant familism marriage and procreation culture adores “perpetuating the family line”, “early and abundant childbirth” and “more children bring more blessings”. With the establishment and development of socialist market economy, Materialistic values have spread in contemporary China. Materialism is gradually replacing Familism, becoming the new dominant force in marriage and procreation culture. Materialism culture of marriage and procreation, at its core, is a culture of low fertility. It exerts influence on individuals' attitudes and behaviors related to marriage and procreation through a series of intermediate factors, resulting in attitudes of “unwillingness to have children” “daring not to give births” and “inability to have children”. To achieve a moderate fertility level, it is necessary to weaken the influence of Materialism and shape a healthy society that is characterized by individual autonomy and a sense of community. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics