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From Core Cities to Metropolitan Areas: The Evolution and Trends of China's Unique Population Concentric Ring Structure
Yin Deting, Ji Fangzhou, Zhu Xiaokun, Liu Mengchen
Population Research
2025, 49 (6):
31-52.
Based on data from China's seven national population censuses (1953-2020), WorldPop, and World Population Prospects 2024, this study employs the “Five Forces” analytical framework to longitudinally examine the formation, evolution, and trends of the population concentric ring structure in China's metropolitan areas through long-term, multi-layer dynamic analysis and multi-model cross-verification. The research aims to advance the study of metropolitan population distribution toward “Developing Chinese Theory Based on Chinese Reality.” The findings reveal that the layered nature of population distribution in China's metropolitan areas has continued to intensify, with distinct typological characteristics. Early-developing and late-developing metropolitan areas exhibit differentiation both between and within types. The population center of gravity in these areas, after undergoing shifts, has gradually regressed, reflecting the spatial resilience of population distribution from a long-term perspective. Under the influence of China's unique governance approach—the sequential implementation of medium- and long-term plans—an orderly evolutionary model of the population concentric ring structure in metropolitan areas has been shaped. Based on these insights, this study identifies four critical issues that require urgent attention in the planning of China's metropolitan population layers and proposes governance strategies, providing both empirical and theoretical support for advancing spatial population governance in metropolitan areas.
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