关键词: 预期寿命, 内生预期寿命, 外生死亡损失预期寿命, 生命力模型, 六普数据

Abstract: In this work, we utilize the vitality model to fit the agespecific mortality data of Chinese adult (35+), and decompose the adult life expectancy into the intrinsic life expectancy and the lost life expectancy due to extrinsic mortality. By applying the method to the Sixth Population Census data, we find that the gender difference in the Chinese adult life expectancy primarily stemmed from their difference in the lost life expectancy due to extrinsic mortality, while the difference between the urban and rural residents mainly reflected in their intrinsic life expectancies which were determined by the chronic aging process. The comparison with Japan further reveals that the disparity in the intrinsic life expectancy contributed mostly to the gap of these two countries in the adult life expectancy. Furthermore, the longitudinal comparison between the Fifth and the Sixth Census data suggests that the reduction of extrinsic mortality was the major force that enhanced the male life expectancy in the past ten years, while the decline of both intrinsic and extrinsic mortality characterized the change of the female life expectancy in the same period. According to the experience of countries with advanced life expectancy, the growth of the life expectancy in China will be dominated by the intrinsic increase.

Keywords: Life Expectancy, Intrinsic Life Expectancy, Lost Life Expectancy due to Extrinsic Mortality, Vitality Model, The Sixth Population Census Data