关键词: Lee Carter模型, 模型生命表, 死亡率预测, 预期寿命

Abstract: The classic LeeCarter model decomposes the change of mortality into three parts: the age-specific average mortality rate, the age-specific change of mortality rate, and the grand tempo change of mortality rate. Such decomposition not only considers the different baselines of mortality for various populations, but also specifies the two types of mortality changes. Because we can obtain different age-specific mortality levels by adjusting either the age-specific change rate or the grand tempo change rate, the Lee Carter model can be used to extend the model life table. However, the classic Lee Carter model would amplify the gender gap of life expectancy and also result in unreasonable mortality ratios among different ages in the long-term mortality forecast. This study modifies the classic Lee Carter model with coherent model and rotation model to overcome its deficiencies in the long-term mortality forecast. The modified Lee Carter model can be used to both project the age-specific mortality rate at a high level of life expectancy and extend the model life table. We take China regional model life table as an example to show the application of the model life table extension with the modified Lee Carter model.

Keywords: Lee Carter Model, Model Life Table, China Model Life Table, Mortality Forecast