人口研究 ›› 2018, Vol. 42 ›› Issue (2): 29-38.

• 论文 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于改进的Lee-carter 模型的二孩生育间隔研究

黄匡时1,刘鸿雁2   

  1. 黄匡时中国人口与发展研究中心副研究员刘鸿雁中国人口与发展研究中心研究北京100081
  • 出版日期:2018-03-29 发布日期:2018-05-18
  • 作者简介:黄匡时,中国人口与发展研究中心副研究员;刘鸿雁,中国人口与发展研究中心研究员。 北京:100081
  • 基金资助:
    本研究为国家社会科学基金重点项目中国人口数据综合集成应用平台建设” (1949~ 2015课题16ZDA089的阶段性研究成果

Second Birth Interval in China:A Study Using the Revised Lee-carter Model

Huang Kuangshi1 and Liu Hongyan2   

  1. Huang Kuangshi is Associate ProfessorChina Population and Development Research Center.Emailhuangkuangshi@ 163.comLiu Hongyan is ProfessorChina Population and Development Research Center.
  • Online:2018-03-29 Published:2018-05-18
  • About author:Huang Kuangshi is Associate Professor, China Population and Development Research Center.Email:huangkuangshi@ 163.com;Liu Hongyan is Professor,China Population and Development Research Center.

摘要: 文章基于原国家卫生计生委 2013 年全国 121 个出生人口监测县的全员人口数据库采用改进的 Lee?Carter 模型将 1980~2013 年每年 20~50 岁妇女的二孩生育间隔分解成年龄别的二孩最小间隔年龄别的二孩间隔弹性和二孩间隔的时间效应 部分研究发现二孩最低生育间隔为1.2~1.7 年龄越大二孩生育间隔的最小值越大年龄别的二孩生育间隔弹性呈现 型变动20 ~30 岁之间在平稳中波动30 岁之后45 岁二孩生育间隔弹性呈现线性增加的态势不过 45 岁之后略有下降1986~1996 年的 10 年间二孩平均生育间隔的时间效应为负但是 1980 ~ 1985 年以及1997~2013 年这两个时期的二孩生育间隔的时间效应为正

关键词: 生育间隔, Lee?Carter 模型, 二孩生育间隔

Abstract: Based on the De Jure Population Database of the 121 National Monitoring Counties in 2013 from the National Health and Family Planning Commissionthis study employs the revised Lee?Carter model to decompose the second birth intervals for women aged 20 to 50 between 1980 and 2013 intothree partsthe age?specific minimum second birth intervalthe elasticity of the second birth intervalcross ageand the over?time change of the second birth interval. The results show that the minimumsecond birth interval ranges from to years. Increasing age of women is associated with increasing minimum second birth interval.The elasticity curve cross age demonstrates an S?shapewhich flats between age 20~30,increases linearly between age 30~45,and declines slightly after age 45.Finallythe time effect on the second birth interval is negative between 1986 and 1996 while it is positive between 1980 and 1985 and between 1997 and 2013.These findings may help deepen our understanding of the age?specific pattern and time fluctuation of the second birth interval in China.

Keywords: Birth Interval, Lee?Carter Model, Second Birth Interval