Population Research

Population Trends in China under the Universal Two-Child Policy#br#

Wang Jinying,Ge Yanxia

2016, 40(6): 3-21.

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China’s universal two-child policy will definitely impact the future development of population．This paper identifies the target women of the universal two-child policy by family type，fertility history and fertility intention，according to which we calculate the number of extra births and related fertility rates and patterns．Scenarios of population forecast are developed using the model of the parity progressive population dynamics．Results show that the universal two-child policy would produce additional 21 million population during the 13th Five-Year Plan period．The population peak would be postponed to 2030 standing at 1.47 billion，slightly larger than the scenario without adjusting policies．Meanwhile，decline in population and labor force would slow down，and labor supply would increase while the pace of population ageing decrease after 2035．However，the long-term declining trend of the total population would not change．China’s population would continue to shrink at an average rate of 6.4 million per year after 2030，and will be reduced to 1.02 billion by the end of the century．

Women’s Fertility Preference and Intention in Urban China: An Empirical Study on the Nationwide Two-Child Policy

Jin Yongai,Song Jian,Chen Wei

2016, 40(6): 22-37.

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Using the 2016 fertility survey data from 12 cities in 6 provinces of urban China，this study empirically investigates family size desire，second childbearing intention and their determinants for married women who have already given birth to one child．We find that 24.4% of women have a timetable plan for the birth of a second child，while 5.1% of women have intention but no timetable．Family backgrounds such as the number of siblings and whether a woman coresides with her parents-in-law have significant impact on the family size desire but are insignificantly associated with the second child- bearing intention．In contrast，financial and care burdens significantly affect women’s second child- bearing intention but are insignificantly associated with the family size desire．Sex preferences exist，meaning that women’s second childbearing intention is higher for those whose first child is a girl．Finally，the gap between women’s family size desire and second childbearing intention is mainly driven by practical factors such as women’s age，family’s financial status，care burdens and son preference．

Gender Equity Should be Promoted by Public Policies under the Two-Child Policy#br#

Zhao Menghan

2016, 40(6): 38-48.

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Under the two-child policy，Chinese families are suffering from increasing burden of child-rearing，most of which falls on women．In this study，we emphasize that the public policies should help achieve gender equity by comparing the impacts of different institutions and polices in developed countries on population change．Though a few policies on maternal leaves in China have gender perspective，they have limited effects on alleviating family members’family-work conflicts．We suggest that the gender equity should be promoted in various public policies，including those concerning labor force participation，education of young children，and Old-age support．

The Demands of Old-age Care and the Family and Social Resources for the Chinese Elderly: A Study Based on 2014 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey#br#

Du Peng,Sun Juanjuan,Zhang Wenjuan,Wang Xuehui

2016, 40(6): 49-61.

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Based on 2014 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey，this paper explores the principal demands of old-age care for the Chinese elderly through analyzing their physical and mental health，economic status，social participation，and expectations for old-age support．This paper further examines old people’s family resources such as their family size，family structure，living arrangements，and children’s situations and their social resources such as social security，medical and health services，facilities，and social services．The results show that 47.53% of the Chinese older people are living in the empty- nest family．12.54% of the elderly need to be cared at different levels．Pension levels still vary considerably among different regions，although the economic independence of the elderly have been improved． Welfares such as the oldest-old allowance and preferential treatment for elderly have progressed remarkably．However，there are big differences between urban and rural areas in terms of the coverage of the old-age care institutions and facilities．

Future Impacts of Population Aging and Urbanization on Household Consumption in China#br#

Zhu Qin,Wei Taoyuan

2016, 40(6): 62-75.

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Based on the estimation of age-specific consumption pattern in both urban and rural China，this paper simulates and analyzes the impacts of population structure characterized by aging and urbanization on the household consumption in the near future，and quantifies their contributions．Results show that the household consumption presents a significant age pattern．Urban household consumption pattern differs remarkably from that of rural households within each age group．Assuming a constant consumption structure by age，population aging does not have strong impact on the aggregate household consumption in China in 2050 compared to that in 2010，although it can significantly affect the consumption structure．For example，population aging leads to a growth of health care consumption． Population urbanization can considerably promote the household consumption．The impact of population size on the household consumption will be far less than that of population aging and urbanization．Their contributions to the consumption are relatively stable under various scenarios of population projection and economic growth．

Factors Affecting the Elderly Intention of Purchasing Long-term Care Insurance in Urban China#br#

Ding Zhihong,Wei Haiwei

2016, 40(6): 76-86.

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This article analyzes the intention of urban Chinese elderly in purchasing long-term care insurance using data from the 2010 China Longitudinal Survey of the Situation of Urban and Rural Older People．Bivariate and multivariate analyses are conducted to examine the factors affecting the elderly intention of purchasing long-term care insurance．The results show that there is no strong intention of purchasing long-term care insurance for urban older people，and there is a high adverse selection．Sociodemographic，economic，alternatives，health and awareness factors significantly affect the intention of urban older people in purchasing long-term care insurance．Policy implications are discussed for strengthening long-term care insurance in China．

Population Distribution，Growth Pole and Incubation of World-class Megalopolis: A Comparison between Northeastern Megalopolis in the United States and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Megalopolis in China#br#

Yin Deting,Shi Yi

2016, 40(6): 87-98.

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Based on the evolution of the megalopolis theories and the analyses of population census and statistical yearbook data，this study explores the issues of coordination development of Megalopolis’s population．Based on a clear distinction between the concept of core area and core city，and using methods of spatial autocorrelation and industrial structure deviation analyses for comparing the spatial scale，space structure of population and spatial coordination of industry between Northeast megalopolis in USA and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei megalopolis in China，this study shows that for a typical megalopolis，its incubation process presents a significant stage development pattern．The population proportion of its core city rises at the beginning，and then declines．The spatial distribution of population shows a changing trend from single pole to multi growth poles．The spatial structure of population has both characteristics of aggregation and dispersion．The adjustment of industrial structure in core region has major implications to the coordination development within Megalopolis．

Global Population Intervention and China’s New Choice: Beyond the Universal Two-Child Policy#br#

Liu Shuang,Zhu Yu,Zheng Lan

2016, 40(6): 99-110.

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With a global perspective，drawing upon data related to population policy as well as the reproductive health/family planning published by the United Nations，this article examines the general trend and characteristics of population regulations and policy intervention across the world，and discusses the implications for the future reform of China’s family planning policy．We find that，in the past 30 years，regarding population policies in the fields of population growth，fertility level，aging，reproductive health/family planning as well as internal rural-urban migration，the number and proportion of countries with no population intervention in the world have considerably decreased．Such intervention has become a major world trend．More than 90% of the world’s countries or regions are currently practicing family planning，showing the universality，inclusiveness and strong vitality of this policy．The promotion of reproductive health has greatly enriched and expanded the traditional family planning practice．This article suggests that China’s family planning policy should promote reform and innovation in distinguishing basic concepts of population policy，integrating services，supporting external policies and bringing into full play the role of social organizations．

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