Population Research

Reproductive Cycle Transition: A Historical Review, Future Prospects, and Theoretical Construction from an International Comparative Perspective

Geng Wenjun, Ding Jinhong, Shen Ke, Gu Gaoxiang

2025, 49(4): 3-19.

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The reproductive cycle refers to the process from a woman's first to last birth. Through a systematic categorization and analysis of the evolution of reproductive cycles across global regions, combined with theoretical discussions on long-term demographic development, this study reveals that reproductive cycle evolution exhibits significant ergodicity, termed the Reproductive Cycle Transition (RCT). The RCT progresses through four stages: a Steady-State Stage, a Compression Stage, a Leveling-Off Stage, and an Equilibrium Stage. It shifts from a traditional pattern characterized by a low age at first birth, a high age at last birth, and a long reproductive span (“low-high-high”) to a modern pattern characterized by a high age at first birth, a low age at last birth, and a short reproductive span (“high-low-low”). The RCT parallels the fertility transition. Europe, North America, Australia, New Zealand and East Asia have entered the Leveling-Off Stage. In contrast, most of Asia, Africa, and Latin America are in the late stage of the Compression Stage, while East, Central, and West Africa remain in their early stage. China's reproductive cycle exhibits an accelerated pattern, beginning in the 1960s and entering the Leveling-Off Stage by the early 1990s. The shortening of the reproductive span carries the risk of lowest-low fertility. Fertility support policies should target the distinct fertility needs of women across different age groups.

Differentials and Determinants of Fertility Intentions among the Childless Couples in China

Li Jingbo, Yao Shun

2025, 49(4): 20-35.

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Based on data from a specialized survey in China, this study examines the factors affecting fertility intentions among married couples without children. The factors mainly involve personal preferences, economic constraints, care burdens, and pregnancy preparation. “Being currently young and unwilling to have children” is the primary reason for being childless, though its impact fluctuates and gradually decreases with age. These young couples view delayed childbirth as a temporary choice, exhibiting clear compensatory fertility intentions in later reproductive stages rather than being lifelong childless. For those beyond the ideal childbearing age who remain childless, “high work pressure” becomes the dominant barrier. At lower economic level, improved economic conditions can effectively enhance individual fertility intentions. However, after income surpasses a certain threshold, non-economic interventions are required to activate latent fertility intentions. Consequently, targeted fertility promotion policies should be formulated to strengthen the guidance on the reproductive values among young married couples without children, enabling the translation of compensatory childbearing intentions among those who have delayed childbirth into actual reproductive behavior.

How Intergenerational Coresidence Affects First-Child Fertility Intention

Zhao Menghan, Zhu Xiaohan, Jin Yongai

2025, 49(4): 36-50.

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The Chinese fertility rate has fallen to an extremely low level, with the decline in first-birth fertility constituting the primary driver of overall fertility reduction. It is increasingly essential to explore factors influencing the first-birth intentions of childless couples. Utilizing data from a specialized survey on never married groups, childless and single-child couples and employing a bivariate Probit model, this study examines how intergenerational coresidence influences the first-birth intentions of married childless couples. The findings reveal that coresidence with paternal parents significantly enhances husbands' and wives' first-birth intentions among both urban and rural couples, while coresidence with the maternal parents exerts a significant positive effect exclusively on urban couples. When coresidence stems from housing constraints, such arrangements partially counteract the positive impact of intergenerational coresidence on urban couples' fertility intentions. For rural couples living with paternal parents, couples' fertility intentions increase with husbands' share in marriage costs. These findings demonstrate the complex influence of intergenerational coresidence on couples' fertility intentions within the Chinese context, deepening our understanding of the interplay between family structure and reproductive decision-making. In light of persistent low fertility, fertility support policies should promote intergenerational support norms and provide targeted housing subsidies to alleviate structural constraints on childbearing.

The Gap between Fertility Plans and Fertility Ideals: An Analysis from the Perspective of Fertility Constraints

Liu Jia'nan, Huang Zhuo

2025, 49(4): 51-65.

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Previous large-scale surveys in China have conceptualized and measured fertility intentions differently. This study utilizes data from the 2023 specialized survey on never-married groups, childless, and single-child couples in China to systematically depict the gap between two measures of fertility intentions-fertility plans and fertility ideals-among these three specific groups. By incorporating fertility constraints faced by different groups, the study further explores the objective factors contributing to the gap. The findings reveal that all three groups exhibit a gap between their fertility plans and fertility ideals, suggesting that there are barriers faced by individuals at childbearing age in developing their fertility plans. Career development and housing conditions significantly constrain the fertility plans of the childless group, leading to their larger gaps in fertility plans. The fertility constraints among the group with only one child are mainly reflected in the economic constraints faced by individuals with lower household income. This study expands the understanding of fertility intentions among China's childbearing-age population, emphasizing that the fertility support policy system should focus on removing fertility constraints and providing more targeted incentives.

Patterns and Determinants of Living Alone of the Young Adults in China

Duan Yuanyuan, Chen Wei

2025, 49(4): 66-82.

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In the context of rising prevalence of living alone among young adults, this study uses one-per-thousand sample data from the 2000, 2010, and 2020 population censuses to examine trends and determinants of living alone among young adults aged from 20 to 49 in China over the past two decades. Decomposition methods are employed to assess the contributions of marriage behavior, population mobility, and solo living feasibility to the period trends and disparities by gender and place of residence. Results indicate that improved solo living feasibility and population mobility were the dominant drivers of the rising prevalence of living alone among young adults. Gender differences in solo living feasibility and marriage behaviors explain higher prevalence of living alone among men than among women, while enhanced mobility primarily accounts for higher prevalence of living alone in urban areas than in rural areas. Across the life course, mobility and delayed marriage drive rising prevalence of living alone during early adulthood, whereas solo living feasibility dominates in middle adulthood. Family-related social policies must address future trends and the heterogeneous trajectories of living alone.

Population Policy, Demographic Dividend, and Long-Term Economic Growth: An Analysis Based on Counterfactual Simulation

Li Gang, Xiong Zhao, Zhan Wang

2025, 49(4): 83-100.

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The demographic dividend is a key driver of China's rapid economic growth since the reform and opening-up in the late 1970s. However, few studies have systematically covered its full cycle—investment, profit, and repayment periods. Five paths of the demographic dividend to promote economic growth are deduced through mathematical reasoning, and the relationship between population policy, the demographic dividend, and long-term economic growth is further examined. A new economic growth accounting method is constructed with the idea of counterfactual simulation, which realizes the path decomposition and overall sum of the economic growth effect of the demographic dividend, and then compares and analyzes the time sequence, path and effect intensity of the demographic dividend under different policy scenarios. The study finds that population policy has a significant impact on long-term economic growth in the dimensions of economic aggregate, growth trend and mode. The channel through which population policy affects economic growth is the demographic dividend, and it exerts its influence by changing the timing of the formation of the demographic dividend, the path of its action, and the strength of its effect. The economic growth effect of population policy is long-term and persistent, and the economic growth paths under different policies may converge in the short run but still diverge in the long run.

Supply-Demand Matching of Healthy Ageing Services

Liu Huijun, Wu Peng

2025, 49(4): 101-116.

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In the context of population ageing, this study utilizes data from the China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS) and the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) to construct a measurement indicator system and demarcate alert-boundary zones. From national, regional, and urban-rural perspectives, we systematically investigate supply-demand matching levels and trends of China's healthy ageing services. The results show that the supply-demand matching levels of healthy ageing services in China have gradually improved yet remain predominantly within alert-boundary zones. High demand that exceeds insufficient supply constitutes the primary mismatch driver. The imbalances primarily manifest in long-term care, free physical examinations, home-based medical visits/medication delivery, and health management services. Moreover, there is significant regional and urban-rural heterogeneity in the supply-demand imbalances of healthy ageing services, which faces the dual challenges of high-level imbalances and low-level matching. Less developed regions exhibit marked deviations between actual and potential demands among older people. Therefore, the supply of healthy ageing services should be strengthened through targeted interventions addressing supply-demand imbalances, and initiatives should be taken to promote regionally balanced development of healthy ageing services.

The Impact of Children's Gender Composition on Couples' Fertility Motivations: An Analysis from the Perspective of Post-Fertility Evaluation

Shen Tanming

2025, 49(4): 117-132.

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Fertility motivations are at the forefront of the decision to have a child. However, the experience of raising sons and daughters constantly reframes couples' fertility motivations. We construct a four-dimensional analytical framework of fertility motivations. Using 2020 China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) data and Ordered Probit Model, we analyze the impact of children's gender composition on couples' fertility motivations. The results show that “Familyism” and “Economic Utility” motivations are more pronounced among husbands than wives. “Individualism” and “Emotional Utility” motivations are stronger among wives than husbands. There exists “Gender Equality Dilemma” in residents' fertility concepts. From the perspective of children's “gender-number” structure, among couples with the same type of structure, those with more children have a higher comprehensive score of fertility motivations. From the perspective of children's “gender-age” structure, having both sons and daughters reinforces traditional gender norms and increases satisfaction with sibling structures featuring an elder brother-younger sister dynamic. From the perspective of children's “gender-economic” structure, being economically a family unit with a son or daughter is positively correlated with assessment of fertility motivations in the individual-economic dimension for wives or husbands respectively.

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