Population Research

Enhancing the Studies on Population and Gender Promoting the Building of Xiaokang Society

Peng Peiyun

2010, 34(1): 3-5.

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This paper is adapted from the speech by the author at the Forum on Population,Gender,and Development sponsored by the Women Research Center of Renmin University of China and the Women Research Institute of All-China Women’s Federation on November 28,2009 at Renmin University of China.It stresses the importance of the issues on population and gender in development,and the complexity of the nature and the delayed effect,calling for more open discussion and interdisciplinary studies on population and gender.

Current Living Situation of Migrant Population in China——A Pilot Survey of Migrant Population in Five Major Cities

The Department of Floating Population Service and Management of National Population and Family Planning Commission of China

2010, 34(1): 6-18.

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The past 30 years have witnessed a rapid increase of migrating population,which contributed much to the significant socioeconomic development in China.Therefore,it is necessary to set up a monitoring system to collect the basic information of migrating population regularly to support the related research and policy decisions effectively and correctively.As a preliminary but serious attempt,The National Population and Family Planning Commission launched a pilot survey on Migrating Population in five major cities including Beijing,Shanghai,Shenzhen,Chengdu and Taiyuan in July,2009.This survey got information of 21771 migrant’s families and 47461 individual migrants.Based on this data set,this paper first describes the features of living,employment,public service participation,social security integration of the migrating population,and then discusses several problems which need to be solved to improve the living situation of migrating population in China.

Impacts of Floating Population on Current Fertility in China

Guo Zhigang

2010, 34(1): 19-29.

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Social change has been remarkably characterized by great waves of floating population under economic reform over the last three decades.However,it seems unclear how the floating population have had impacts on fertility.Based on data from the 2005 one percent population sampling survey,the obtained fertility rates of female floating population are much lower than those of their non-floating counterpart.Comparison of fertility between the two groups are carried out further by age pattern,by birth order,as well as by status of household registration.The paper concludes that floating movement do contribute to fertility decline.

Migrant Population Concentrated Communities in Beijing:Patterns and Trends

Zhai Zhenwu, Hou Jiawei

2010, 34(1): 30-42.

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Migrant population concentrated communities have been emerged and developed in the context of urbanization,and has become the major areas of inhabitation for the migrant population in Beijing.The number of Residential Communities accommdating migrant population over ten thousand amounted to 102 in 2000 in Beijing,accounting for 30.4% of the total number of Residential Communities and 74.4% of the total migrant population of Beijing.This situation will not change in the short term,and will result in larger scale concentrated communities with the development of Beijing.Migrant population concentrated communities can be divided into fully-depending,semi-depending and non-depending types according to the relationship with industries.In a dynamic perspective,concentrated communities of non-depending type will transform or disappear when the society implements minimum wage plan and makes upward mobility possible.However,problems surrounding the other two types of concentrated communities could only be settled by industrial restructuring and market redistribution.

Population Program and Responding to Climate Change

Zhao Baige

2010, 34(1): 43-47.

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The 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference was held in Copenhagen,Denmark,between 7 December and 18 December,in which the international community paid great concern to climate change.This paper analyzes the relationship between population programs and climate change,arguing that climate change is not simply an issue of environment or technology,but an important development issue.Some important factors like population and health should be brought into the framework responding to climate change in a comprehensive approach,with the ultimate goal of human wellbeing and sustainable development.The paper proposes a framework addressing comprehensively the problem of climate change with Chinese characteristics based on the experience of the population program of China.

Impacts of Population Dynamics and Consumption Pattern on Carbon Emission in China

Peng Xizhe, Zhu Qin

2010, 34(1): 48-58.

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By using STIRPAT approach,this paper examines the impacts of population size,population structure,and consumption pattern and technology development on carbon emission in China.It reveals that changes in consumption pattern and population structure are the two major driven factors that played a more important role compared with population size.There is a high correlation between consumption pattern and carbon emission.Urbanization results in increased use of fossil energy,cement products,and changes in land coverage,which all lead to more carbon emission.Population age structure affects the carbon emission mainly through changes in labor force supply and consequently the overall economic growth.Reduction in average family size has negatively linked with the carbon emission as overhead consumption of smaller family household may be bigger than those larger family households,which deserves further studies.The paper also claims that China has made great effort in reduction of carbon emission through population control.Potential social policies concerning low-carbon development are discussed.

The Impacts of Demographic Dynamics on Climate Change

Jiang Lei wen

2010, 34(1): 59-69.

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The studies on the relationships between population and climate change have not attracted enough attentions from climate research community and policy makers.This paper reviews the researches of the impact of population dynamics on climate change,through analyzing the findings and limitations of existing approaches and models,particularly introducing the progresses in improving the projections of CO2emissions using the integrated assessment model iPETS. It reveals that population dynamics,interacting with economic growth and technological changes,is one of the root cause of climate changes. Population dynamics is not only the changes in population size,but also the compositional changes and spatial distributions of the populations and households.Household,instead of individual in a population,should be considered as the demographic unit of analysis in climate changeforecasting. Aging,urbanization,and household shrinking are all important demographic factors determining future changes in the climate system.This paper gives examples on how to improve the demographic modules in climate change modeling,and indicates the importance of considering demographic factors in stipulating climate change mitigation policies.

To What Extent Population Is Responsible for Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Hou Dongmin

2010, 34(1): 70-74.

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由于各国经济利益不一致,气候变化谈判博弈艰难。在这种形势下,人口控制对减少温室气体排放的意义,近来被国际社会部分人士及中国政府重新提及,值得关注。自1972年世界环境大会以来,发达国家对世界人口问题的看法发生过180度的转变,否认发展中国家人口快速增长对经济的不利作用,否认人口与环境问题相关的观点,渐成西方学术界主流,由学术界蔓延到西方政府,并深刻影响着发展中国家许多学者的认识。文章论述了人口规模对温室气体排放的影响,试分析了上述西方主流观点在研究方法上存在的问题。目前,中国正进入快速工业化阶段,对庞大人口不断放大的经济、资源、环境影响,本文认为必须有极为清醒的认识。

Aging Support for Peasants:Choices and Capabilities

Qi Xin

2010, 34(1): 75-85.

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Choices of peasant aging support are related to their capabilities,which are determined by rural economic conditions,production manners and institutional arrangements.Based on description of the living conditions of peasants and the narrative of their experiences,this study shows that they are neither traditional nor rational peasants regarding their participation in social insurance.Despite various explanations in not participating in social insurance,lack of capabilities is the major reason why peasants have no aging insurance.That they have to rely on land and children for their aging support is not their voluntary choice.Incapability leads to the fact that they sacrifice their long-term benefit but maintain the present living status.The rift is too large between peasants and state economic development strategies and social polices,affecting negatively rural aging support policy and choice of ageing support for peasants.

China’s Demographic Transition Reconsidered

Liu Shuang

2010, 34(1): 86-94.

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Reviewing the changes in nuptiality and fertility behavior,family structure,and cause of death pattern of the Chinese population over recent decades,the author argues that it is far from complete and difficult to meet the practical demand of our era and population development to have an understanding demographic transition,especially the Chinese demographic transition from merely the conventional basic population dynamic involving birth,death and natural increase. Demographic transition is a multidimensional,dynamic and historical process,involving a combination of a serious of specific demographic transitions. Changes in birth rate,death rate and natural increase rate are only the surface or the "crust" of demographic transition.The "core" of demographic transition is the population behavior and its dynamic mechanism which are held by institutions,culture,and technology.Changes resulting from the "core" represent the intrinsic demographic transition.It is the important perspective and basis to understand the demographic transition with Chinese characteristics by looking at intrinsic demographic transition.Exploring the nature of demographic transition and reviewing the typical studies in demographic transition theory in China,the paper discusses future directions and research innovations in demographic transition theory.

Old Age Mortality Crossover in China:Does the Public Health Insurance Matter

Huang Feng, Wu Chunjie

2010, 34(1): 95-105.

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This study analyzed data of respondents who were age 60 or over in Wave 2002 of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey and whose survival statuses were followed in Wave 2005. Using discrete-time hazard techniques to model the risk of dying over the span of almost three years,the empirical results indicates that selective mortality exists between the elder with and without public health insurance (PHI):those subgroups without PHI systematically experience higher mortality at younger age,leaving a more robust group of individuals in the surviving population.As age advances,this group exhibits lower mortality compared with those with PHI.There is a mortality crossover at age 96 among Chinese elders,indicating that PHI has a lasting and positive effect on health and longevity.

The Barycenter and Fulcrum of the Strategy of"Publicity and Education as Guide and Forerunner of Population and Family Planning Work"

Zhong Qingcai

2010, 34(1): 106-112.

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Adhering to the guidance of Deng Xiaoping Theory and the important thought of Three Represents,implementing the concept of scientific development and the significant strategic thinking of constructing a harmonious socialist society,fully enhancing population and family planning work in the new era and comprehensively addressing China’s population issues,IEC on Population and family planning needs to be enhanced.The formulation of "publicity and education as guide and forerunner" strategy was issued by Li Bin,Director of Population and Family Planning Commission of China in 2007.She stressed "Develop keen awareness of the importance and imperativeness of fully enhancing the population and family planning work in China".The formulation of "publicity and education as guide and forerunner" strategy,"meta-point project" for better population and family planning work in the future,is the inevitable outcome of deferring to objective laws of ideological and political work,ideological and ethical progress,population and family planning work,as well as summing up positive and negative experience and lessons,directed by the Scientific Outlook on Development.This article discusses the "why,what and how" of the "guide and forerunner" strategy.

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