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Dynamic Trend of China's Population Ageing and New Characteristics of the Elderly Yang Hanmo Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 104-116.   Abstract （4200）      PDF （1246KB）（2927）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the 7th National Population Census conducted in 2020 and previous censuses,this study analyzes the current situation and the dynamic trend of China's population ageing. This study first describes the health status, sources of livelihood, living arrangement, and marital status of the older population in general, and summarizes the characteristics of China's population ageing: The speed and depth of China's ageing process have been further strengthened, and the proportion of the elderly population in rural areas becomes higher. From 2010 to 2020, the self-assessed health status of the older people has improved, yet the gap between urban and rural areas is still significant; the proportion of widowed persons among the older people has declined, and the relative proportion of widowed persons is higher in rural areas and among women than their counterparts; the elderly security system is further improved, and the older people are more economically independent with less economic pressure; the phenomenon of “empty nest” is common among rural older people; and those who are unhealthy or living alone are more likely to rely on assistance from the government. Related Articles | Metrics

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Family Changes in Contemporary China: Characteristics, Trends, and Prospects Ma Guoqing Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 43-57.   Abstract （2814）      PDF （14124KB）（348）       Knowledge map    Save Family change is an important perspective to unveil social changes in China. Drawing upon data from population censuses, this paper examines the characteristics and trends of Chinese family change over the past several decades, particularly after China's reform and opening-up, focusing on family size, family relationship, and family strategy. Chinese household size has been declining, and the family intergenerational structure has shifted to one generation households, with family types being diversified and dominated by nuclear families. Family relationships tend to become more equal and democratic, family production function is increasingly expanded, while family support function presents different characteristics between urban and rural areas. Under the changing urban-rural divide in China and globalization, the option of family strategies has been manifested in the active adjustment and adaptation of contemporary Chinese families in response to the rapid and complex social changes. While being dominated by nuclear and stem families, Chinese traditional family patterns would become increasingly diversified in the future. Related Articles | Metrics

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Empty-nest Elderly Households in China: Trends and Patterns Tao Tao, Jin Guangzhao, Guo Yalong Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 58-71.   Abstract （2438）      PDF （12724KB）（668）       Knowledge map    Save Drawing upon data from 2000, 2010 and 2020 population censuses, this study examines trends and patterns of the empty-nest elderly households in China. The level of empty-nest elderly households has been increasing both in urban and rural areas over the last 20 years, and has increased in all China's provinces over the past decade. In 2020, empty-nest elderly population is estimated approximately to be 0.15 billion, of which 7.7 million are the oldest old living alone. The oldest old and female elderly are more likely to live alone. Nearly 70% of the living-alone elderly are widowed, and nearly 10% are still unmarried. Empty-nest elderly live mainly on family support, social security, and labor income. Their health conditions are generally good, but a small proportion are disabled. Few living-alone elderly have caregivers to provide care for them, and even for those disabled only 19.86% receive such care. Policy implications are discussed. Related Articles | Metrics

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Identifying the Mystery of Chinas Declining Labor Participation Rate among Workingage Population: Informal Care or “Being NEETs”? Liu Dayu, Zhao Hengyuan, Xu Bin Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 102-116.   Abstract （1812）      PDF （13498KB）（248）       Knowledge map    Save This paper conducts an empirical analysis using the data of CFPS2016 to test the causes for the decline of employment rate. The results show that “Being NEETs” prevents workingage population from participating in work, while informal care promotes labor participation. According to marginal probability calculation, “Being NEETs” has a stronger negative impact. The negative impact imposed by the NEETs, which indicates a race to the bottom trend, is more serious in rural areas, suggesting that “Being NEETs” is no longer a privilege among rich families. People who are unmarried and without home loan are more vulnerable to losing their employment willingness. On the one hand, our results suggest that there is indeed a lack of social responsibility among the current workingage population. On the other hand, the phenomenon of forcedly “Being NEETs” among lowemployment ability population is rapidly expanding. Therefore, paying more attention to those peoples education and career development is the core task of breaking through the current dilemma of low employment rate. Related Articles | Metrics

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Will Internet Use Affect Fertility Desire？ Qiu Leiju, Feng Yiqiang, Shi Yupeng, Sun Baowen Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 3-15.   Abstract （1643）      PDF （11976KB）（299）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from the China Family Panel Studies and the matched urban data and Baidu search index, this paper examines the effects of internet use on fertility desire as well as its underlying mechanisms. After controlling for other influencing factors and endogenous issues, the results show that residents who use the internet have about 10.5% lower fertility desire than nonusers, especially for internet users who live in economically developed cities, with low education and low income. It is further identified that negative information mechanism, utility substitution mechanism, and marital satisfaction mechanism are the ways through which internet use reduces fertility desire. In addition, internet use also influences the actual fertility behavior and weakens the effect of the universal twochild policy. Our study provides a new perspective for understanding the low fertility problem. Related Articles | Metrics

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Assessing Accuracy of Age Reporting in the 7th Population Census of China Zhang Xianling, Ming Yan Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 27-39.   Abstract （1497）      PDF （10521KB）（308）       Knowledge map    Save Age structure is the most fundamental population structure, thus, assessing the accuracy of age reporting is an important prerequisite for census data usage. Using the data from population censuses and sample surveys, this paper employs the methods of comparing with other data sources, cohort survival ratio, modified Whipple index, and Sign Test to investigate the accuracy of age data in the 7th population census. The number of annual births estimated from population aged 0-9 in the 7th census and that releaseal by the National Bureau of Statistics are quite close, which preliminarily suggests that there is no obvious underreporting in the lowage group of the 7th census. The cohort survival ratios abnormally fluctuate in the age group of 10-40, reflecting the underreporting in the lowage group, the overreporting in youth group, and the larger overreporting of women of childbearing age than males in the 6th census. In addition, this study adopts the modified Whipple index and Sign Test method to examine the accuracy of age reporting in the 7th census. The results show that the 7th census age data is of high quality without obvious age heaping at the national level. Related Articles | Metrics

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Reassessment of China's Fertility Level:An Analysis of the 7th Population Census Data Zhai Zhenwu, Jin Guangzhao, Zhang Yiyang Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 3-13.   Abstract （1437）      PDF （9734KB）（358）       Knowledge map    Save The key to accurately assessing China's fertility level lies in high-quality data. The 7th population census has obtained data of very high quality mainly due to the newly added ID number registration and application of information technology, providing a good opportunity for reassessing China's fertility level. This study shows that the total fertility rate (TFR) of China maintained above 1.6 from 2006 to 2017, exceeded 1.7 in most of the years, but dropped sharply from 2017 to 2020. The TFR was fluctuating considerably, ranging from a low of just 1.3 in 2020 to a high of 1.89 in 2012 and 1.88 in 2017, with a 15-year average of 1.7. Fertility preferences, fertility policy adjustments, and COVID-19 had marked influence on fertility level. The average number of children ever born suggests that there is still potential for improvements in China's fertility level, and the key measure is to fully eliminate the emerging fertility inhibiting factors and build a fertility/family-friendly society to tap this potential. Related Articles | Metrics

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From 6.57 Million to 376 Million: Remarks on Migration Transition in China Duan Chengrong, Qiu Yuding, Huang Fan, and Xie Donghong Population Research    2022, 46 (6): 41-58.   Abstract （1382）      PDF （12060KB）（192）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the national census data since 1982, combined with the methods and indicators such as migration participation rate, visibility of floating population, distribution of floating population, and interprovincial migration flow, this paper comprehensively summarizes the spatial development of floating population from the perspectives of departure areas, destination areas, and flow directions. Meanwhile, the paper further discusses the evolution and recent characteristics of China's migration transition based on the gender structure, age structure, educational structure, urban and rural structure, the separation of living place and household registration, the migration of ethnic minorities, and the situation of crossborder migration. The results show that high population mobility has become the new normal of China's population characteristics. The process of migration transition varies across different regions, while some regions has already entered a new phase of migration transition. During the past 40 years, the internal structure of China's floating population has changed rapidly, and the new characteristics have started to emerge. China's migration transition has been and will continue to be a comprehensive, multi-level, and diversified process. Related Articles | Metrics

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Negative Population Growth in China: Characteristics, Challenges, and Responses Zhai Zhenwu, Jin Guangzhao Population Research    2023, 47 (2): 11-20.   Abstract （1368）      PDF （9308KB）（318）       Knowledge map    Save China's negative population growth is an objective law of population development, with a unique transition process and development trend. In the future, long-term and rapid negative population growth may pose challenges to the economy. It is necessary to cope with negative population growth actively by establishing a fertility support policy system, improving population quality, optimizing the spatial layout of the population, raising per capita consumption, and enhancing labor productivity. Related Articles | Metrics

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Why Does Internet Use Affect Fertility Intentions？ Chen Weimin, Wan Jiale, Li Chaowei Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 16-29.   Abstract （1340）      PDF （12559KB）（278）       Knowledge map    Save Based on CGSS2017 data, this paper examines the effects of surfing the internet on fertility intentions. The results show that surfing the internet will reduce individuals fertility intentions. The effects on the intended number of children are greater than that on whether to have children. There are two mechanisms for these effects. One is increasing anxiety about childbirth and thus changing the individuals attitudes towards giving birth. The other is raising personal consumption which squeezes the economic budget for childbearing and childrearing. The effects of internet use on fertility intentions vary across different purposes for getting online. Using the internet for study, work or social contact has no significant effects on individuals fertility intentions, while using the internet for shopping or entertainment significantly reduces fertility intentions. Other conventional media usage, such as newspapers, magazines, television, and mobile phone message has no significant influence. To prevent the negative impact of internet usage on fertility intentions, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of network information, reasonably guide online consumption, and help individuals to establish a positive attitude towards fertility and consumption. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Path to Modernization of A Huge Population Yuan Xin Population Research    2022, 46 (6): 3-9.   Abstract （1254）      PDF （5813KB）（201）       Knowledge map    Save Related Articles | Metrics

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An Assessment of Lifetime Childlessness in China Based on the 7th Population Census Zhang Cuiling, Jiang Yu, Zhuang Yaer, Jiang Quanbao, Yu Dian, Liu Wenli Population Research    2023, 47 (3): 78-93.   Abstract （1152）      PDF （13276KB）（344）       Knowledge map    Save According to the 7th National Population Census of China, the estimated rate of childlessness for women aged 49 is 5.16% in 2020, lower than that reported in the European Union (19%) and in the United States (11%). The heterogeneity of childlessness in China is increasing, showing distinct differences regarding to period, cohort, education, place of residence, and regions. The childlessness level of women aged 49 with high levels of education, living in cities and regions with ultra-low fertility levels is much higher. Factors like the acceleration of urbanization, the continued popularization of higher education, and the ongoing trend of marriage and childbearing delay would further promote the rise of the childlessness level. Given China's low share of non-marital births and third births and above, the continuous rise of childlessness level would have a stronger negative impact on the newborn population and total fertility rates, thereby affecting China's ability to maintain the aimed suitable fertility level. The government should attach great importance to and address the issue in advance. Related Articles | Metrics

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Where Do the Low skilled Laborers Go in the Era of “Machine Substitution”?A Study Based on China Labor force Dynamic Survey Data Qi Jianhong, Fu Jingjing Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 114-128.   Abstract （1055）      PDF （16422KB）（629）       Knowledge map    Save This study investigates the impact and mechanism of robots on the inter-city outflow of low-skilled laborers based on the China Labor-force Dynamic Survey and customs data. The results show that robots reduce the number of jobs in the secondary industry and replace the low-skilled laborers, increasing the probability of low-skilled workers' outflow across cities. In terms of industry transfer, robots lead to a higher probability of low-skilled laborers under 45 years old flowing into the service industry and low-skilled laborers above 45 years old flowing into primary industry. In terms of city transfer, the probability of low-skilled laborers flowing into the city's service industry and first-tier city's service industry has increased due to robots. In terms of inter-region movement, more educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to East China, while less educated low-skilled laborers tend to move to the west regions. The results have important policy implications for formulating policy regarding robot industry and population movement. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Population Decline in China: A Global Perspective Zheng Zhenzhen Population Research    2023, 47 (2): 3-10.   Abstract （1051）      PDF （7200KB）（264）       Knowledge map    Save The world has experienced population growth and fertility decline for nearly a century and has entered an era of deceleration of growth. China’s population change is consistent with the global trend, but the time length of the whole process has been significantly compressed. While the population size has peaked, China has quickly become an ageing society. Nevertheless, low fertility, stagnation or negative growth, and population ageing are not unique to China. In the 21st century, both China and the world need to face these challenges. China must adapt to these demographic changes and actively respond to the challenges as soon as possible. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Changing Mechanism of the Sex Difference in Life Expectancy in China Chen Hao, Chen Daiyun Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 117-128.   Abstract （1026）      PDF （10742KB）（170）       Knowledge map    Save Since the founding of the Peoples Republic of China, its population reproduction has transformed from a traditional to a modern one. During this process, the life expectancy of the population has continued to increase, and the sex difference in life expectancy has also been changing. In 1953, the life expectancy of Chinese men and women was 44.54 and 44.58 years, respectively, and the difference was only 0.04 years. By 2010, the life expectancy of men and women reached 72.38 and 77.37 years, respectively, and the difference was 4.99 years. The sex gap in the proportion of people aged 100 and over in the whole population has also widened. The change of the sex gap in life expectancy reflects the law of population development. Chinas legal development and policies have supported gender equality, which promotes the formation of genderless consciousness in social roles and thus benefits women. Ultimately, womens lifespans have extended. Related Articles | Metrics

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Amplification and Reduction: The Hidden Facts in China's Ageing Population and the Implications for Ageing Measurement and Theory Chen Youhua, Sun Yongjian Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 3-22.   Abstract （1009）      PDF （17801KB）（214）       Knowledge map    Save Ageing measurement and manipulation is the foundation of ageing research. Due to the failure of the analytical power of traditional indicators or theories, there are many hidden facts in China’s current ageing problem. The traditional age division standard will overstate the proportion of working-age population, reducing the dependency ratio of the elderly. Registered residence index will over-evaluate the ageing of the urban population and reduce that of the rural population. In the context of substantial migration, the nominal family structure will overrate the old-age supporting function of family, reducing the burden on the government. Healthy life expectancy will magnify the achievement of healthy ageing, reducing the crisis of unhealthy ageing. The traditional age standard will overestimate the burden of providing care for the elderly, reducing the role of the elderly themselves. It is important to reflect the traditional ageing indicators and their reliability and validity, and to explore new indicators to update the ageing research. Related Articles | Metrics

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When Fertility Support Policies are Effective？ Gender Equality, the Combination of Fertility Support Policies, and the Rebound of Total Fertility Rate in 27 Countries Zhang Yang, Li Lingchun Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 3-19.   Abstract （940）      PDF （13910KB）（464）       Knowledge map    Save China has witnessed a low total fertility rate for decades; thus, it is imperative to build a fertility support policy system based on the experience of other lowfertility countries. Drawing on a constructed longitudinal dataset, we investigate the associations of different fertility support policy combinations with a fertility rebound and the moderating effects of gender equality on these associations. We find that policy combinations supporting the dualearners model are more conducive to fertility rebound, compared to those supporting the malebreadwinner model. Economic support policies have a stable positive relationship with the total fertility rate, while the effects of service and time support policies are contingent upon gender equality. Specifically, the effects of service and time support policies are more pronounced with higher levels of gender equality. These findings suggest that we need to consider the coordination and combination of different types of fertility policies, and rethink the value orientation and social background behind the policies, and promote a genderfriendly social environment. Related Articles | Metrics

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Motherhood Penalty on Chinese Women in Labor Market Yang Fan, He Yuchen Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 63-77.   Abstract （923）      PDF （1268KB）（573）       Knowledge map    Save Using China Family Panel Study ( CFPS) data from 2010 to 2018 and an event-study framework, we explore the impacts of children on the dynamic trajectory of female labor force participation and hours worked. The results show that the arrival of the first child creates a sudden and substantial decrease in the employment and monthly hours worked. The impacts sustain until the child is 4 years old. Within 0 - 3 years after the birth of the first child the employment and the monthly hours worked decreased significantly. Nevertheless, after 4 years beyond the birth of the first child, there is no statistical difference in the employment and monthly hours worked compared with the pre-birth stage. Compared with women, there is no significant impact of children on the labor supply for men.Meanwhile, we provide evidence that the motherhood penalties on labor supply are following the law of diminishing marginal cost. We end with the heterogeneity analyses which show that the college-educated and younger cohorts experience smaller labor supply declines. This study helps understand the magnitude and dynamic trajectory of motherhood penalties in China and provides illumination for the family policy to help women balance family and work and families realize their fertility intention from a perspective of international comparison. Related Articles | Metrics

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Multidimensional Poverty of Chinese Older Adults and Its Changes between 2005 and 2018 Zhang Wenjuan, Fu Min Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 55-68.   Abstract （919）      PDF （12469KB）（196）       Knowledge map    Save Employing data from CLHLS survey conducted between 2005 and 2018, this study analyzes Chinese older adults' multidimensional poverty status and changes using the AF method. This work also summarizes the multidimensional poverty pattern by utilizing the latent class analysis and estimates the impact of family and social support on different patterns of poverty. The results suggest that the older adults' multidimensional poverty index declines with an increasing contribution of health. Multidimensional poverty patterns include financialmental poverty, comprehensive health poverty and mobilityparticipation poverty. Older adults who are female, older, and have lower education show higher risks of falling into three kinds of poverty. Older adults who are rural, live alone, and lack family and social support are more likely to be in financialmental poverty. Comprehensive health poverty is more likely to be observed among older adults living with family and have relatively sufficient community health services and social pension security. Older adults with less family support, community services and social security are more likely to show mobilityparticipation poverty. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Evolution Routine and Transition Patterns of Population Age Structure: International Comparations and Chinese Characteristics Ding Jinhong, Zhang Weijia, Mao Renjun, Tian Yang Population Research    2023, 47 (1): 23-42.   Abstract （914）      PDF （14738KB）（168）       Knowledge map    Save A three-group age structure can be designated as a point in the triangular diagram, while the routine of the points in time series traces the age structure evolution. The paper classifies the age structure evolution patterns of countries (areas) in the world and provinces in China, and discovers the general and ergodic age structure transition (AST) pattern which experiences three stages: the “bonus raising” stage (i.e., from the traditional fertile young population to fewer children-more labors population), the “debted ageing” stage (i.e., from fewer children-more labors population to fewer labors-more aged population), and the stage in between (i.e., turning stage). While developed countries are primarily in the middle of stage three, most developing countries are in the late phase of the first stage, and many least developed countries in Africa are still in the early stage one or even in the traditional position. Started in the 1950s and accelerated since the 1980s, the AST in China is now just passing the turning stage with diversifying decreasing bonuses at turning points from coast to inland provinces. According to a simulation scenario, China will approach the equilibrium position near 2100, with 15% children, 55% labor forces, and 30% older people, which is probably the common end of all countries in the future. Related Articles | Metrics

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Changing Housing Conditions in China Sun Qing Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 117-128.   Abstract （899）      PDF （1159KB）（273）       Knowledge map    Save Data from the 7th National Population Census suggest that housing conditions in China have continued to improve in the past decade. The per capita housing area of urban residents has reached the standard of living of a comprehensive well-off society. The household residential pattern,used to be dominated by two-generation households, has now featured by a dichotomy between onegeneration households and multi-generation households, and the proportion of buying commercial houses and renting other houses has increased significantly. The housing conditions in China's western and northeastern regions have both greatly improved, and the regional disparity has narrowed. However,the urban-rural gap in housing conditions has been changing that the gap in housing facilities narrowing, while the gap in per capita housing area widening. While differentials in housing sources exist,differences by occupation in urban areas tend to narrow. Related Articles | Metrics

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Will Population Decline Lead to Economic Slowdown? A Study on China's Stock of Human Resources and Long-term Economic Growth Potential Li Keaobo, Li Daokui, and Wu Shuyu Population Research    2022, 46 (6): 23-40.   Abstract （868）      PDF （15604KB）（151）       Knowledge map    Save In recent years, a popular view among economists has been that Chinas economic growth potential will diminish significantly as Chinese population stops growing in the near future. We challenge this view and show that in fact, human resources, rather than the total population, is the key factor for long-term economic growth. The stock of human resources is the total reserves of labor hours adjusted for the quality of the population. The core metrics of the quality of population are the average health and educational attainment, respectively. The Chinese economy will still enjoy steady growth in total human resources through 2040 and then remain steady untill 2050. If China's human resources can be effectively fully utilized, then the average growth potential of the Chinese economy will be 5.9% from 2021 to 2030, 4.9% from 2031 to 2040, and 4.1% from 2041 to 2050. These findings imply that to maintain China's long-term economic prosperity, it is imperative to further strengthen lifelong learning, advance a scheme of marketbased flexible retirement, and to provide more incentives to enhance the willingness of the population to join the labor force. Related Articles | Metrics

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Fertility Transition of Chinese Ethnic Minorities：Trends and Determinants Wang Donghui, Jin Yongai, Liu Tao Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 30-43.   Abstract （866）      PDF （12244KB）（167）       Knowledge map    Save Fertility transition of ethnic minorities is an integral part of the demographic transition of China. Studying fertility transition among different ethnic groups offers a new perspective in understanding fertility transition in China. This study uses multiple waves of micro census to describe fertility transitions of different ethnic minority groups. Utilizing multilevel models, this study also identifies the between and within group determinants of ethnic minority fertility behaviors. Results show that similar to Han Chinese, ethnic minorities also experienced fertility decline over the past forty decades. Yet their rates of decline were modest. Most ethnic minority groups reached near replacementlevel fertility since 2000, and some saw modest increase in the recent decade. There exist heterogeneities within ethnic groups. Different ethnic groups exhibit different fertility patterns. The multilevel analysis results show that ethnicspecific traits had diminishing yet still significant impact on fertility behaviors. Within ethnic group differences account for a larger part of the total fertility variations. Related Articles | Metrics

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Trends in the Size and Structure of Disabled Older Adults in Rural China Han Runlin, Han Xiaojing, Zhang Lilong, Lu Xiaoli Population Research    2023, 47 (2): 63-77.   Abstract （861）      PDF （11368KB）（204）       Knowledge map    Save This research projects the population size, structure and disability rate of rural older adults based on the six waves of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey data from 2002 to 2018 and the Seventh National Census data. The result shows that the population size and the proportion of rural people aged 65 and above will increase from 90.35 million and 17.72% in 2020 to 124.38 million and 33.14% in 2035. The ADL disability rate of rural older adults will drop from 5.76% in 2020 to 4.92% in 2035, due to the decline of age-specific disability risk and the ageing population structure. Men's and women's disability rates will drop from 4.92% and 6.55% to 3.79% and 5.87%, respectively. The rural elderly population with disabilties is showing a trend towards severe disability and ageing. The decline in the total disability rate is mainly caused by the rapid decline in the mild disability rate, which was brought about by the reduction in the risk of age-specific disability. The moderate disability rate declined slightly and the severe disability rate continued to rise. The rate of moderate and severe disability are both around 4%. The study provides reliable data for the improvement of rural older care service capabilities and the promotion of long-term care insurance coverage to rural residents. Related Articles | Metrics

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Marriage Delay in China：Trends and Patterns Chen Wei, Zhang Fengfei Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 14-26.   Abstract （841）      PDF （10673KB）（230）       Knowledge map    Save The 7th Population Census of China in 2020 provides high quality data for analyzing new developments and characteristics of China's population. Capitalizing on data from China's population censuses and sample surveys, this paper analyzes trends and patterns of marriage delay in China from 1990 to 2020. Marriage delay, which has been taking place across all population groups, has accelerated in the recent decade, but the proportion staying lifetime single is still very low. Comparing with the Western countries, China has a different path to postpone marriage. Marriage delay was initiated under lower level of development in China. We use a framework of determinants of marriage by Dixon to explain marriage delay in the Chinese context. Obstacles are being intensified to marriage desirability, feasibility and availability, and marriage delay will continue, but the universal marriage pattern will not change in the short run. It is also important to recognize the heterogeneity of marriage delay, males in rural China are most likely to be leftover to become lifetime single. Related Articles | Metrics

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Status and Changes of the Rural Children Left Behind in China: 2010-2020 Lyu Lidan, Mei Ziying, Li Rui, Li Shu, Yan Fang, Wang Xu, Duan Chengrong Population Research    2024, 48 (1): 103-117.   Abstract （825）      PDF （14931KB）（113）       Knowledge map    Save The phenomenon and issues of rural children left behind (RCLB) in China are affecting the flow of human capital between urban and rural areas. This paper clarifies the definition and steps for identifying RCLB, and uses the micro-data of the 2010 and 2020 Population Censuses to analyze relevant characteristics and changing trends over the past ten years. The analysis includes the following aspects: population size of RCLB, their age and sex structure, regional distribution, living arrangements, and educational development. The findings show that the population size of RCLB remained large, and the likelihood of being left-behind was closely related to age and sex. An increasing proportion of RCLB were cared for by grandparents as more mothers migrated between 2010 and 2020. RCLB no longer had any advantage in education opportunity compared with the average level of rural children. Over-age attendance was more noticeable among RCLB than the average level of rural children. We should continue to pay attention to the issue of RCLB and address its root causes. Reference | Related Articles | Metrics

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Spatial Patterns and Influencing Factors of Inter-Provincial Migration in China Ma Shengchun Population Research    2022, 46 (6): 59-71.   Abstract （802）      PDF （10094KB）（171）       Knowledge map    Save Using population census data and spatial analysis method, this paper examines the influencing factors of China's inter-provincial migration over 2010~2020. Inter-provincial floating population in China expands enormously, and presents an unbalanced “twoway floating” pattern. Interprovincial floating population is dominated by migration from the less developed provinces in the central and western regions to the more developed provinces in the East and adjacent regions. Factor analysis and geographically weighted regression model are used to explore factors affecting China's inter-provincial migration. While economic and social factors have significant impacts on inter-provincial migration, the impacts are greater in the central and eastern provinces than in the western provinces. The East-West gap in the impact of economic and social factors on net migration is still considerable, and the North-South gap is on the increase. Related Articles | Metrics

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China's Declining Population Does Not Imply Declining Economic Growth: The Perspective of Steady Growth of Human Capital Li Daokui, Li Keaobo, Wu Shuyu Population Research    2023, 47 (2): 21-30.   Abstract （752）      PDF （8660KB）（192）       Knowledge map    Save In 2022, China saw a population decline while just entering the rank of high-income countries. This has caused widespread anxiety in Chinese society. Worldwide, many analysts predict a rapid decline in China's economic growth due to the peaking of the population. However, we disagree with this by arguing that it is the stock of human capital, rather than the amount of young labor, that determines the growth potential of a country. By our estimates, due to continued improvements in public health and education, China’s aggregate human capital is positioned to continue growing steadily between now and 2050. Chinese aggregate human capital in 2050 will be equivalent to 1.644 billion by the health and education standard of 2020. This implies that the Chinese economy has the potential to continue growing at the pace of 5.9%, 4.9%, and 4.1% for the coming three decades, respectively. The key to realizing this potential for economic growth is to establish pragmatic policies to fully utilize China's increasing human capital. Related Articles | Metrics

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New Rural Pension Scheme,Intergenerational Support, and Grandparenting:Evidence Based on the Regression Discontinuity Design Yang Ruilong, Ren Yuzhuo, Wang Zhinan Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 44-59.   Abstract （744）      PDF （12830KB）（177）       Knowledge map    Save This paper evaluates the impact of the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) policy on childrens intergenerational supports toward parents. Using data from CHARLS2015 and CHARLS2018, we adopt the regression discontinuity design to investigate this influence. The results show that the NRPS policy significantly increases the transfers from children to parents by about 1700 yuan per year. However, the amount of time that children accompany their parents dramatically decreases by about 10%. The results indicate that the NRPS policy positively "crowds in" childrens intergenerational financial support, while negatively "crowds out" the temporal support, suggesting an obvious substitution effect between these two types of supports. We further explore the mechanism of the impact and find that the NRPS policy leads to more time the older adults contribute to taking care of their grandchildren. To “exchange”, the children increase transfers to parents and then reduce the time of accompanying their parents. Conclusions further discuss the policy implications about how to improve the overall quality of social welfare services in China. Related Articles | Metrics

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Satisfaction of Fertility Desires for Couples of Childbearing Age and the Effect of Family Characteristics: An Empirical Study Based on the Three dimension Fertility Perspective Song Jian, Chen Wenqi Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 3-18.   Abstract （725）      PDF （1217KB）（323）       Knowledge map    Save The deviation between fertility desires and behaviors is common among Chinese people of childbearing age. Little attention has been paid to the satisfaction of fertility desires from gender and time dimensions and its determinants. Based on data from the 2021 national sample survey conducted by the Center for Population and Development Studies of Renmin University of China, this paper analyzes the satisfaction of fertility desires and the effect of family characteristics from three dimensions. The results show that more than half of the couples of childbearing age want to have children but failed to meet their desired number; forty percent failed to satisfy the desired sex; more than eighty percent did not meet the desired time with a later age of childbearing than the desired timing. The socioeconomic status and fertility potential of family play an important role in satisfying the desired number for all the couples. The effect of family fertility culture is not significant. The couples with unsatisfied sex preference tend to have more children to fulfill it. It is suggested to make precise policies for different types of couples of childbearing age to help them meet their fertility desires. Related Articles | Metrics

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Trends in Educational Assortative Marriages in China by Couple Hukou Status, 1960-2018: An Urban-Rural Integration Perspective Du Yongxiao, Dong Hao Population Research    2023, 47 (4): 98-113.   Abstract （725）      PDF （15063KB）（331）       Knowledge map    Save This study, from an urban-rural integration perspective, examines and compares trends in educational assortative marriages by couple's rural/non-rural hukou status. We use new methods, such as rank-rank correlation and Exchange Index, to analyze 81756 couples from nationally representative survey data (i.e., the 2003-2018 CGSS and 2010 CFPS). We find a substantial and persistent difference between rural and urban marriages. Couples who both have an urban hukou have more similar educational statuses than couples of whom either one or both have a rural hukou. This gap in homogamous tendency is mainly driven by highly educated couples. Moreover, we find gender-asymmetrical hukou-status exchange patterns for rural-urban inter-marrying couples, whose relative advantages in hukou or educational status could not compensate each other. These new findings reveal the profound influence of unbalanced development between rural and urban regions, highlighting potential directions for future policies for better incorporating rural-urban integration with sustained population development. Related Articles | Metrics

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Postponement of Marriage and Childbearing in China during 1990-2020: Trends and Characteristics Zhang Xianling, Sheng Yi'nan Population Research    2023, 47 (5): 88-101.   Abstract （694）      PDF （1695KB）（722）       Knowledge map    Save Using the census and sampling survey data between 1990 and 2020, this study examines the postponement of marriage and childbearing in China. The results show a persistent increase in the mean age at first marriage in urban and rural China. However, the postponement of the first marriage started earlier in urban areas than rural areas during 2000-2010. The postponement of first marriage in rural areas accelerated during 2010-2020. This led to a widening and then narrowing trend of the urban-rural gap. Age at first marriage differs across educational attainment; women and men with higher education significantly postpone their first marriage. Men with higher education also show a lower likelihood of staying unmarried for life. The curve of age-specific fertility rate for women at childbearing age has shifted downwards to the right, and the peak childbearing age of urban women has shifted more than that of rural women. The mean age at childbearing has been increasing, with a more rapid speed in 2000-2010 and then a slower one in 2010-2020. The mean age at childbearing of each parity has been postponed, especially for the first and second births. Women with different educational levels all postpone childbearing, and those with higher education levels show larger postponement. Related Articles | Metrics

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“Getting Old before Getting Rich” in China: A Re-examination Lin Bao Population Research    2023, 47 (3): 3-16.   Abstract （678）      PDF （12760KB）（225）       Knowledge map    Save This article systematically reviews various debates on the judgment of “getting old before getting rich” and puts forward a more intuitive criterion: the index of consistency between population ageing and development level. According to this criterion, all countries and regions can be divided into three types: getting old before getting rich, basic coordination between being “old” and being “rich”, and getting rich before getting old. Based on the data of World Population Prospects 2022 and Human Development Report 2021/2022, we assess the relationship between being “old” and being “rich” in China since 1990 and find that China has been in the state of “getting old before getting rich” since 1990, but this situation has been changing in recent years. Using per capita national income as a representation of being “rich” shows that China is moving out of the state of “getting old before getting rich” and entering the state of basic coordination between being “old” and being “rich”. Using the human development index as a representation of being “rich” indicates that China is at the point of transition between the two states. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impacts of Internet Use on Social Networks and Loneliness among Older Adults：A Study Based on the Purposes of Internet Use Tang Dan, Zhang Kun, Qi Xinru Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 88-101.   Abstract （663）      PDF （12667KB）（149）       Knowledge map    Save Based on the data of 2018 China Longitudinal Aging Social Survey (CLASS2018), this study utilizes the propensity score matching, linear regression models, and bootstrap mediating effect tests to explore whether the Internet use and the specific purposes of Internet use (interpersonal communication or information seeking) would affect the social networks and loneliness of older adults. This study focuses on the role of social networks in linking Internet use and loneliness among older adults. Results show that using internet can expand older adults family and friendship ties and decrease their feelings of loneliness. Family ties act as partial mediators in associating Internet use and loneliness. Interpersonal communication achieved by Internet use can increase the social networks, and family ties also play a mediating role in associating interpersonal communication through Internet with loneliness. Although information seeking can decrease the loneliness of older adults directly, it damages the social networks and further increases the loneliness. Family ties act as a suppressor in the association between information seeking and loneliness. Therefore, older adults should be encouraged to use the Internet reasonably, and actively integrate into the digital society, so as to decrease the loneliness. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impacts of Social Software Usage on Social Networks of Mid aged and Older Adults Xie Lili, Yang Lu, Hu Bo, Wang Fei Population Research    2022, 46 (5): 91-103.   Abstract （654）      PDF （1198KB）（398）       Knowledge map    Save Using data from a survey on the use of online social tools by mid-aged and older adults in 2021, this paper investigates the relationships between the variety, relationship types, and activity level of online communities, and social networks of mid-aged and older adults by using the structural equation modeling. The study found that the mid-aged and older adults had better relationships with their relatives and friends as the variety of online communities increased. Strong and sub-strong tie groups could promote family and friend networks, respectively, while sub-weak and weak tie groups could promote both types of networks. Moreover, the higher the activity in the online communities, the greater the promotion of their friend networks. Findings promote the understanding of changes in the social network in the internet era. Online communities break through the physical distance in the traditional differential mode of associations by enhancing family relations, strengthening and expanding friend relations horizontally, and helping restore interrupted friend relations vertically. The breadth and depth of the social network of mid-aged and older adults have been developed through online communities. Related Articles | Metrics

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Burden of Family Care for the Older Adults in Rural and Urban Areas in China in the Era of Rapid Ageing Wu Haixia Population Research    2022, 46 (3): 74-87.   Abstract （648）      PDF （12240KB）（152）       Knowledge map    Save Using data of 2018 Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey （CLHLS2018）, this paper designs indexes about the family burden of care for older adults and care intensity, and compares the differences of family care burden between rural and urban areas. For older adults whose ability of daily activities are limited, the family care burden in towns and villages is heavier than that in cities. The average number of family caretakers of the urban older adults is significantly fewer than that of the older adults in towns and villages. In daily life, the intensity of caring for the older adults in cities is higher than that in towns and villages. For older adults who are seriously ill and disabled, the care intensity in villages is higher than that of the older adults in cities and towns. Individuals health status has a significant impact on the burden of family care. To reduce the family and social care burden effectively, a health management system should be established based on the whole life cycle of the whole population while implementing the Healthy China Strategy. Related Articles | Metrics

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The Impact of Fertility Policy Relaxation on Women's Income in Urban China Huang Qian, Jin Xiaofei Population Research    2022, 46 (6): 103-116.   Abstract （644）      PDF （10256KB）（125）       Knowledge map    Save China officially implemented the selective two-child policy and the universal two-child policy in 2013 and 2016, respectively. Fertility policy relaxation has far-reaching impacts on women in urban China. In the labor market, income is an essential indicator of labor market performance and employment quality, and women are paid for their labor through employment. With the staggered difference-in-difference (DID) model, the impact of fertility policy relaxation on the average monthly and hourly earnings of urban women in China is assessed using data from 2012, 2014, 2016, and 2018 China Family Panel Studies. We find that the twochild policy leads to a significant decrease of 12.36% in women's average monthly income and 11.37% reduction in average hourly earnings; the negative influence on income of women below 25 or those with no children is most pronounced, which suggests that the relaxation of fertility policy has exacerbated gender discrimination in the labor market, especially statistical discrimination. Related Articles | Metrics

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A Reconceptualization of China's Goals for Long-term Population Development to Strengthen the Economy Wang Jinying, Li Zhuangyuan, Wang Dongmei Population Research    2022, 46 (4): 40-54.   Abstract （643）      PDF （14160KB）（170）       Knowledge map    Save  In the process of building a modern country, China is witnessing major changes unfolding in our world, something unseen in a century. China is also facing challenges such as rapid population ageing, negative population growth and a decline in labor force that would largely impact its socioeconomic development and comprehensive strength. Based on a renewed understanding of the population development and its relationship with socioeconomic development, this paper discusses the state of population development needed to enhance the country's economic strength. It also proposes the scope and direction of China's longterm population development in the future, emphasizing the central and fundamental position of population size. To be specific, the desired population size should be between 0.9 and 1.2 billion by the end of this century. Actively changing the longterm trajectory of population development, raising the fertility rate close to the replacement level and keeping the population size between 0.9 and 1.2 billion would also improve the population structure, quality and spatial distribution, strengthening the economy. Related Articles | Metrics

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A County-Level Analysis of China's Population Change:Insights from the 7th Population Census Liu Tao, Zhuo Yunxia Population Research    2022, 46 (6): 72-87.   Abstract （637）      PDF （16281KB）（137）       Knowledge map    Save Drawing on the data from the latest three decennial censuses, this paper analyzes the spatial pattern and influencing factors of China's population change since 2000. The results show that China's population becomes more spatially unbalanced, which is reflected by the persistent difference between the east and west areas, the widening gap between the south and north areas, and the increasing disparity between the central cities and peripheral counties. Natural environment, economic, amenity factors and the administrative hierarchy play significant roles in population change. However, their effects not only evolve with time, but also vary among regions at different stages of development. In the last decade, regions with a high rate of population growth have transferred from the coastal areas to the inland areas and from the plain areas to the mountain areas. The differences of public services among regions become an important factor for population growths, especially in the east China. Central cities become more and more attractive to population, showing the increased impact of state forces, which mainly happens in the middle and west China. The results can help understand the driving factors of population change, and provide references for promoting the balanced population development. Related Articles | Metrics

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Influencing Factors and Spatial Heterogeneity of China's Interprovincial Migration: An Analysis of the 7th Census Data Wang Guixin, Chen Yujiao Population Research    2023, 47 (2): 48-62.   Abstract （633）      PDF （13600KB）（166）       Knowledge map    Save This paper uses the 7th census data to investigate influencing factors and spatial heterogeneity of China's interprovincial migration destinations from 2015 to 2020. The results show that recent changes in the macroeconomic environment and the New-type Urbanization Plan have attracted migrants to move back to the less developed provinces in central and western China. Meanwhile, the difference in regional economic development has narrowed. Therefore, the destination for interprovincial migration is decentralized. Economic factors such as the urban-rural income gap are still the most important factors affecting migration choice, while their influences have weakened significantly. Spatial factors have also been less important due to better traffic conditions. Migrants tend to move to places with good humanistic and social environments. There is also spatial heterogeneity in the influencing factors on interprovincial migration destinations. Related Articles | Metrics